James Harding: Analysis
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By the standards of Sir Richard Branson’s photoshoots, his appearance in the City yesterday was demure. There were no daredevil acrobatics. (Presumably, he has had enough of that after the bruising bungee jump in Las Vegas this week.) Nor was there an eye-catching costume. (A Newcastle United strip complete with the Virgin Money logo is surely just a matter of time.)
Like so many of Sir Richard’s gambits, the publicity has already promised more than the venture may ultimately deliver: the Virgin consortium is still a long way from rescuing Northern Rock.
The Virgin group has pulled together an impressive array of heavyweight financial backers. Even with their help, the consortium is only addressing half the problem at the Rock. By renaming the bank Virgin Money, it says, it can restore the Rock’s sullied reputation with consumers. Unfortunately, the real issue is not Northern Rock’s image on the high street, it is its standing in the wholesale financial markets.
Virgin has not yet identified who will provide the liquidity to prop up the bank. Northern Rock needs serious sums of money: it owes the Bank of England about £13 billion; it has debts due in the next year of about £14 billion; writing new business in the coming year could cost £5 billion or more. The consortium says that it is in talks with big banks that are willing to provide the funds. Until those bankers emerge, however, Virgin is only offering brand-aid to a broken balance sheet.
But if the Rock rescue works, it could well be seen as Sir Richard Branson’s most audacious gamble yet. Virgin is looking to inject a relatively small credit card business with a £25 million annual profit and, possibly, a little cash to get control of a huge mortgage business and £115 billion worth of assets. In the absence of other bidders, Virgin is offering a lifeline to the Rock’s employees and its charitable foundation. But, make no mistake, this is not altruism, it’s opportunism.
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