Suzy Jagger and Gabriel Rozenberg
We've made some changes
to The Sunday Times
Investors should brace themselves for a prolonged period of market turmoil, Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, said yesterday as he held emergency meetings with the Chancellor and the French Finance Minister.
Mr Paulson flew to London to discuss the financial crisis with Alistair Darling as markets remained in the grip of anxieties over the continuing toll from the global credit squeeze.
Speaking after talks with his counterparts in France and Britain, Mr Paulson insisted that the global economy remained strong despite the seizures in interbank lending, but admitted that the American economy would take a knock from the turmoil.
After meeting Christine Lagarde, the French Finance Minister, Mr Paulson said: “It will take a while to work through the turbulence in capital markets.”
Mr Paulson acknowledged that bad lending practices were to blame for the present financial crisis, which has been triggered by the high number of American homeowners falling into arrears on their mortgages.
However, he added that “the whole world, including the US, has benefited from . . . credit availability”.
Ms Lagarde had called for new rules to prevent a repeat of the credit turmoil, but Mr Paulson argued that “we want to make sure we don’t rush to judgments”.
Mr Paulson ruled out an immediate recession, saying that the United States’s economy would continue to grow in the second half of the year, despite the country’s housing slump.
The Treasury Secretary said that the credit crunch was the result of bad lending practices rather than any problems in the real economy. “We are already seeing modest reductions in the strains in some markets,” he said.
Mr Paulson described his country’s economy as “diverse” and “healthy”, with inflation controlled and growth good, and expressed confidence that growth would continue in the second half of the year. He said that the decline in US employment in August, the first drop in four years, had not been a surprise, “given where we are in the economic expansion”.
However, the financial turbulence will “extract some penalty” from the US economy, he said.
Turbulence in capital markets across the globe and the slump in US property prices are expected to force the hand of the US Federal Reserve Bank today to cut interest rates by at least a quarter of a percentage point, to avert the chance of a US recession.
Some analysts believe that the Fed will bow to pressure from financial institutions and make a half-point cut.
Mr Paulson declined to comment on the Fed’s meeting, saying that he had “great confidence” in its Chairman, Ben Bernanke.
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Weasel words from pols and bureaucrats to assuage the
rubes.
Keeps your eyes on prices in the stores and watch while
the dollar tanks and gold and oil soar.
jomama, Garden City,
This would be terribly funny if the rest of the world would not be affected but no way to deny it: The US will enter into a bad period now.
The US economy based on debts is crumbling down because loaners cannot pay their debt, and that will affect EVERY business.
Big creditors (China, UK) will not see their money back from homeless americans.
Unknown, New York, New York
For several years now as I have watched the housing bubble expand, I have guessed that its burst was intended to coincide with Peak Oil, which it has. The economic turmoil of both, combined, will make vast amounts of real estate available for pennies on the dollar which will be traded and brokered into blocks to become the basis for the Neo-Feudalism. Peasants, get ready to run a hoe in your landlord's fields if you want to eat and a place to live.
Tom, Grants Pass, Oregon, USA
I find the comments likening recent events to the great depression interesting. In the great depression those who hung onto their money lived like kings. It was the rest of us that caught a terrible cold.
Chris Kenney, High Wycombe, England
The reason for the problems in the US housing market has been due to the collapse of endowment mortgages. Low interest rates persisted in the US for a decade. This meant that endowments which matured were unable to pay off the cost of the mortgage.
I wish people would stop saying it's the fault of govt or private industry. Become better informed.
The reason why problems in the UK recently occurred is because misinformed people acted in a herd mentality. People do not act rationally under pressure, and unfortunately, "panic drives panic".
matt, Washington, D.C.
Sure .... if you call air and water the "spirit of god"
Thor, Golden, CO,
I am short America !
Mike Hunt, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Paulson spews forth the same words as the Captain of the Titanic once did. "The ship is perfectly safe, have the band continue to play. There is nothing to be concerned about."
Kev, Atlanta, GA
I'm pretty sure that if I stopped eating Gods Spirit wouldnt stop me from starving to death!!
James Roberts, Manchester, UK
Does this mean there is one US Treasury Secretary who has the correctness to be truthful
Are these chaps not supposed to be puppets on a string,,so who is pulling these strings? An interesting thought!
Nicholas Iles, Oswestry, Shropshire
My husband and I have taken our money out of the market and are going to sit on the sidelines for a year or two. We are also storing food for a year, paying off our debts and have installed a wood stove. The U.S. is now ripe for a terrorist attack, the timing is ideal to cause maximum economic damage. I think the depression my grand parents went through is nothing compared to what will happen if the terrorist's accomplish what they call the perfect day.
Michele, Logan,
Titanic is about to sink. US is sinking fast.
Experts think it is hanging by a thread.
Peter, Manchester, UK
This is far more than a market correction, this is an example of a greedy broken system. There are two main problems. The 1st problem is that we are in a "Mc Jobs" economy. Manufacturing jobs in the past have allowed the American worker to afford a realitively high standard of living but, now with most of America's better paying manufacturing jobs being shipped overseas the U.S. worker is left with mostly low paying service jobs. The 2nd problem is really a symptom of the 1st in that the lack of decent paying jobs has created a huge population which cannot afford to purchase a home for themselves with a conventional mortage. To qualify this unwashed mass the banking and finance industry has created a plethora of unholy instruments to bring mortages to this group. The bankers knew that the vast majority of these subprime loans would blowup once interest rates invariably rose. Now the wheels are off of the wagon and Wall Street wants the taxpayer to foot the bill.
Dan, Montebello,
If any intelligent child at grade 6 would know not to offer 50 year interest only mortgages, shouldn't the individual who received such a loan also be to blame for accepting such terms??? No one forced the debtor to sign the note! No one forced the debtor to exagerrate her income or try to finance what she cannot afford. This is not Paulson's fault, nor is it the banks' fault... this is a mess brought on by greedy mortgage brokers and careless individuals. Let the buyer beware, you reap what you sew.
Agrippa, Galt's Gulch, PA
The banks have turned low risk housing loans into high risk instruments. Remember Orange County which only invested in low risk government bonds but the structuring of these bonds resulted in a major USA default.
Jon Michael, Cape Town, South Africa
At least the US has acknowledged the slowdown, and understands that steps need to be taken. Thi statement also shows that they are open to conversation with other economies, which I think can only be good as working together and understanding each other's economic cycles can only be good for economic stability.
Hassan Azam, Banbury, Oxfordshire,UK
"a while, " "prolonged period". What are we talking about here? 2/3 weeks, 2/3 months, 2/3 years?
Bill Peter, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Did we forget that banking and housing are secondary markets? meaning, they can only make wealth on "real companies". The world is progressively becoming banking and insurance companies and it appears that the fed is giving a thumbs up to the process by flooding the market with money everytime things go sour. At what point will this madness end?
Simian, New York, USA
How long can a world economy based on growth continue when all natural resources are heavily overburdened already?
Jay, Reading, UK
Yea, amazing where was he and Greenspan when the banks were giving out NINJA loans. NINJA stands for No Income, No Job or Asset loans? These traitors crafted this demise and now they want to stand on top of the rubble with their bullhorn like Bush on 9/11. This trick wont work again.
James, Ny, NY
Exactly what is it that drives the U.S. economy? What does America export besides bombs and war? If peace ever does break out, we are in for a big depression. Our trade debt is $60 billion per month. Our national debt is $9 trillion. If we pay it off at a million dollars per day, it will take 30,000 years. What's coming is going to make 1929 look like a picnic.
R.J., Albuquerque, N.M.
Does the spirit of god come with a UK duty paid sticker?
Hector, colchester, essex
This is a market correction nothing more. Shaddy lenders who offered exorbitant interest rates to people who could never afford them and overblown housing prices are the blame. This type of correction has occured several times in the countries history including land speculation that cost George Washington alot of money. Within 2 years things will be back to normal, housing prices will be more realistic and new guidelines on lenders will prevent a reoccurance of this type of downturn.
BILL JOHNSON, Anaheim, Ca/usa
No kidding. This brings to mind the famous Chinese paralog: "When the wingless take flight the staple of their labor shall be warped."
Myers DeJesus, Tampa, FL
All of the above comments are quite thoughtful. Pick up a world history book on economics, what is occuring is the total devaluation of the US dollar. US fed gov will never be able to repay the multi-trillions of dollars that is owed to the world, so they are hoping to inflate their way out. It wont work and the business world knows it, that is why, since 2000, the worlds money brokers have been quietly moving to the gold backed Euro. Sadly, due to greed, indiference, arrogance and much more, the US has become a paper tiger. If it were not for the US military nobody would take us seriously any more anyway. Biggest bully on the block, etc. Here in the usa there are no more "real" jobs left we have NO real economy, just service jobs at mostly minimum wage. The rest of the world supplied us with "credit" so we could buy cheap slave labor goods made in factories that used to be in the usa. All empires rise and fall. It is just the way of the world. Get out of dollars, buy gold.
Bill, Orlando, Fl
Big Banks, Big Oil, Big Political Donor's, are Responsible! Just like in 1929; Might not the results be the same? Smart Money thinks these Big Power Barron's will not stop, until they bring about another Great Depression; Such is just a matter of Time; if not this time, then later!
Xeno77777, Saint Petersburg, Florida, USA
Everyone I talk to wonders how so many of their everyday expenses can keep going up yet the Federal Government continues an "inflation is in check" mantra. Unemployment was up in August. Foreclosures and repossessions hit a record in August. I've been a loan officer for 23 years and know in my gut it's a matter of "when" rather than "if" TSHTF. Good observation John. I do wonder what planet Mr. Paulson is collecting his data from.
Rich, Midwest, USA
When will everyone realize, it's not high interest rates that is causing the housing problem...it's the prices of homes that are way to high....25-50% drop is what is needed..
Linda, Seeley Lake, Montana
Alan Greemspan is the worst President the Federal Reserve System has ever known!
The interest rate is the price paid for the use of borrowed money. This rate is determined by interaction between the supply of and demand for borrowed money. When demand for money is relatively constant and supply increases, interest rates fall. The Federal Reserve System contributes to falling interest rates by expanding the supply of money as it has been doing since the early Clinton presidency. Excessive money supply creation is achieved by the U.S. Treasury printing bonds, and having the 'independent' Fed buy them. This practice monetizes the debt allowing government to borrow at low interest rates, thereby helping government spenders avoid hitting the so-called 'temporary debt ceiling.' Greenspan refused to remain independent of the Administration in office as required by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Households were permintted to borrow excessively this also; thus, our problem.
Thomas J. Coyne, Ph.D., Bath/Akron, Ohio/USA
Paulson and the rest of the bigwigs have no idea what is happening to middle class america. The should ask thier limo drivers and butlers whats going on.
john , brighton,
It scares me that this guy is in "control " of money matters. Where was he when the banks were giving 50 year mortgages to people at interest payments only when any reasonably intelligent child with grade 6 could calculate that the buyer was not going to meet the interest payments from day one, let alone pay of the mortgage? Did no one realize this was the recipe for a catastrophe? One of the advantages of buying a house is the capital you accrue in the house over time by actually paying it off. Otherwise you may as well rent. The inmates are running the institution.
GK, Calgary, Canada
So Mr Paulson, the housing,mortgage & banking industries are NOT part of "real economy"?
What planet are you operating on?
John m.Fletcher, Tampa, Florida
Ha, man does not live by bread alone, but by the spirit of god.
bobbie, Gilbert, Arizona