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NORTHERN ROCK, the mortgage bank rescued by the Bank of England last week, could see as much as £12 billion - nearly half of its deposits - withdrawn by worried savers, experts say.
The run on the bank continued yesterday as police were called in to keep the peace when angry and desperate customers besieged branches across the country despite assurances from the Treasury and Bank of England that their savings were secure.
Branches due to close at midday opened until 2pm, but many hundreds of people were still trying to get their money when the branches closed and minor scuffles and arguments broke out.
Senior executives at Northern Rock spent yesterday at its New-castle head office monitoring events, but the lender is seen to have little future as an independent entity. It held talks about a possible takeover by Lloyds TSB before the crisis and is expected to be sold off cheaply to a rival.
The bank, which saw £1 billion taken out by worried savers on Friday and at least £500m removed yesterday, is prepared for a further flood of withdrawals when branches open tomorrow. Many will be by customers with nearly £10 billion in postal accounts, who can only make withdrawals by writing to the bank.
“The question is why wouldn’t you take your money out and put it somewhere else,” said one senior banker, who predicted £12 billion worth of withdrawals from the bank, which has £24 billion in deposits from savers. “Though Northern Rock is solvent, a lot of people have been gripped by the fear that they might lose some of their savings. It is a huge problem.”
One banking analyst warned: “It is not beyond the realms of possibility that they could lose half of their deposit base, if not more.”
“We have not had a decent run on a bank for many, many years. The difference now is the internet and that means you can get your money out very quickly. Banking is about confidence and that has gone from Northern Rock in a spectacular way.”
This weekend there was criticism from backbench MPs and economics experts over the authorities’ failure to avert the crisis. Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, faces a grilling from a parliamentary committee on Thursday.
Gavyn Davies, the former BBC chairman and Goldman Sachs economist, questioned whether the authorities had been tough enough in monitoring financial institutions. “Once we get into this sort of problem some sort of rescue becomes inevitable,” he said. “Authorities need to impose tougher risk controls when times are good. They have few palatable choices during the meltdown.”
Critics believe that regulators should have curtailed Northern Rock’s activities earlier. The former building society used to account for 2% of the total mortgage market a decade ago, but its share now stands at about 9%.
In the first six months of this year, it was responsible for one in five new mortgages and offered generous loans - up to 125% of the value of the property - to first-time buyers.
David Cameron, the Conservative leader, accused Gordon Brown of having “presided over a huge expansion of public and private debt without showing awareness of the risks involved”.
Writing in a newspaper today, he says: “Though the current crisis may have had its trigger in the United States, over the past decade the gun has been loaded at home.”
Whitehall officials said the decision to prop up Northern Rock was agreed by the Treasury, the Bank and the Financial Services Authority, the regulator. “We expected this, but there is no need to panic,” said a Treasury official. “It is a solvent institution.”
But George Mudie, a Labour MP on the committee that will question the Bank of England governor, said: “I’m wondering where it leaves Mervyn King in terms of credibility. Northern Rock’s business model is similar to the private equity industry, which we have been looking at, and there are now a lot of very worried people.”
Michael Fallon, a Tory member of the committee, said: “It seems very odd that Mervyn King was saying there would be no bail-out, then he sets out how to do a bail-out and then he does the bail-out. We need to understand much more clearly how the decision was taken.
Yesterday, Professor Willem Buiter, a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, became the first insider to criticise the Bank’s intervention. “A bail-out has occurred that should not have occurred and moral hazard has been injected into the financial markets — into the financial system — that wasn’t necessary,” he said.
However, other senior former Bank insiders rallied to King’s defence. Sir Alan Budd, who was chief economic adviser to the Treasury during the last Tory administration, said: “My general thoughts are that it is always easy to be wise after the event. I think Mervyn King and his colleagues will have been reluctant to offer assistance until they judged it was absolutely necessary.”
Budd also predicted a cut in interest rates to help calm nerves.
Police were called to help bank staff deal with ‘boisterous customers’ at branches in Glasgow and Sheffield yesterday, advising at least one store to close its doors. In Manchester staff handed queueing customers chocolates to placate them.
Ernest Floate, a retired civil engineer whose pension was hit when Equitable Life almost collapsed four years ago, was one of hundreds of people at a branch in Kingston, southwest London, from 6am yesterday. “When I heard the news I just thought, ‘Oh no, not again’,” he said.
One couple from Islington, north London, tried to withdraw £250,000 in savings from the Golders Green branch. The wife, a retired nurse, said: “I don’t trust the bank. I feel I need to close the bank account and take my money elsewhere.”
Outside the Bolton branch, Janet Walker, from Atherton, said: “I’ve completely lost confidence in Northern Rock and just want to get my money out.”
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Ten years ago, when building societys were converting to plc's (banks) everybody thought it was the best thing since sliced bread, well, maybe now it's payback time! No dough to be made here.
john, cheshire,
Gordon Brown has a lot to answer for. After ten years of overindulgence on borrowed capital we are now having to 'pay the piper' for the lack of prudence that brought us to this sorry mess. As for his ministers telling everyone not to worry this just wont wash and is typical of a government that will not accept responsibility for any of the many blunders and errors of judgments made by them over the past ten years.
d case, newquay,
will thebank of england assist any other bank who could find themselves in simalar circumstances in the near future,this was a private company and as such,should face the conseqences of wrong management decisions!
mary foy, glasgow, scotland
UK Deposit Insurance for account holders is totally inadequate.
The £35,000 limit is too low and maximum compensation of £31,700, for account balances of £250,000 or higher, is ridiculous.
In Canada, our Bankers pay premiums up to $100,000, our Deposit Insurance limit. Maximum compensation is $100,000 in the event of failure. The account holder is 100% protected to the Deposit Insurance limit.
125% mortgages have never been available in Canada. Our maximum legal limit for high ratio insured loans is 95% of appraised value and available to only the most credit worthy customers.
The UK government appears to have been asleep at the wheel, on both deposit insurance and irresponsible mortgage lenders.
With Northern Rock, the 5th largest UK lender, so far we have just seen the tip of the iceberg.
Patrick Hogan, Warner, Canada
If FSA, Chancellor, BOE are allso adamant to say there is nothing wrong with the British Banking System and NR, than why these big three refuses to say that what ever circumstances savers will be paid 100% what come may. But chancellor together with Angela Knight (BBA) also says that under FSA regulations 1st £2000 is guaranteed and than 90% of £33,000 this is the reason why people are withdrawing their money because this regulation is a farce. Depositors should be paid in full nothing less. But can FSA tell me what happens to rest of the depositors fund after 90% of £33,000? Bet it goes to companyâs bankrupt directors, FSA, BBA and the chancellor? Why is 45yrs old applegarth is the Director who is not qualified to run a bank? Was he thoroughly vetted by FSA? There are so many questions reporters are not asking because of politics. All in all BOE Governor is right, if this emergency funds or temporary funds as one might want it called, is because of Chancellor am I right? Let's see.
Harish Shah, Croydon, Surrey
Reminds me of the film ' It's a wonderful life' with James Stewart.
Although James Stewart was a nice man, I have yet to find a bank that I am truely happy with.
What goes around comes around in my book.
Dave, France, Europe
I feel very sorry for Northern Rock in my experience they have always been a very efficient , friendly and easy company to deal with and have just been caught out by world events which all changed in early August when banks stopped lending to each other. In addition they sponsor loads of good causes in the North of England. Sadly though I guess after all the bad headlines their day is over and the brand name is shot.
Charlie , London, UK
The savers with the £250,000 are going to have a very busy time of it unless they are going to keep their cash under the mattress and wait for the burglars.
Why did they have that amount in one bank when only £33,000 is covered by the government's compensation scheme in the event of a problem. Presumably they will now be spreading it around a number of different banks anyone of which could be the victim of the next panic.
Northern Rock could actually be finished off by its own customers who are in effect taking their money out of one pot in the 'banking system' and walking across the road to put it back in via another one.
RH, Hampshire,
Your quote from a 'banking analyst' shows how so-called experts have failed to understand the situation for anyone with a Northern Rock account.
Like thousands of other customers I have an internet-only savings account and I have been trying for three days to get money out. I don't want to close the account - I just need access to some of my money, but the website is too busy for me to log in. Northern Rock branches have no access to internet-only accounts, so they can't help, other than to supply phone numbers which I already have and which are constantly engaged. I have also requested a call-back via Northern Rock's website, but no-one has called me.
This must be happening to thousands of internet customers.
Instead of telling people not to panic and saying that they will be able to get their money, Northern Rock should be making alternative arrangements for internet-account holders to access their savings. Maybe then people would believe them and panic less!!
Chris Honeyman (Mrs), Barnard Castle,
As an employee of Northern Rock, and speaking unofficially, it is dismaying to see how the current situation was portrayed in the media.
The media hype and sensationalisation that has surrounded the announcement is detrimental to the Bank itself, and also to its customers - Many of whom are commenting that they have always been happy with Northern Rock, and will continue to bank with us in the future.
Why do the media feel the need to undermine confidence in the banking system by misrepresenting the situation at hand?
When the Bank of England, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the FSA, the Head of the British Bankers Association, and the Council of Mortgage Lenders all admit that Northern Rock is completely solvent, and has plenty of spare regulatory capital, then why do headlines such as "Northern Rock in Emergency Bail out" get bandied around?
Surely the media has a responsibility to report the facts of the situation in a fair and balanced way to prevent needless panic?
Chris, London,
The run on Northern Rock: brought to you by the government who cost Railtrack shareholders billions, turned their backs on Equitable Life pensioners, wasted countless millions on the Millennium Dome and who are still raiding pension funds to the tune of £ 5 billion every year.
New Labour, new Larceny.
Rick, London, England
will thebank of england assist any other bank who could find themselves in simalar circumstances in the near future,this was a private company and as such,should face the conseqences of wrong management decisions!
mary foy, glasgow, scotland
By closing the doors at 2pm yesterday and leaving account holders stranded over the weekend, Northern Rock, the FSA and the Bank of England have broken the cardinal rule on bank runs. As happened in Hong Kong with Hang Seng Bank some decades ago the doors were kept open in the hope that queues would exhaust before the cash (see Mary Poppins). The role of the central bank & regulators is to ensure that customers can access their funds, by visiting the key branches &/or online at any time following unsavoury rumours. By preventing this and trying to create an orderly withdrawal human psychology dictates that the queues will be longer tomorrow in tandem with a much weaker share price. The lack of forethought by the regulators hardly impresses.
Richard Hoblyn FSI, City of London, UK
The simple fact is that high-street consumers no longer have any trust in the retail banking sector. The much publicised test-case regarding bank charges have created an atmosphere of severe sceptisism right at a time when the banks didn't need it.
The irony is that, once this credit crunch is over, it is likely the test case will be kicking off, meaning that consumer confidence is likely to remain low at least into the next financial year.
Mark Johnson, Nottingham, UK
I think it is absolutely ridiculous that so many people are trying to withdraw their money from Northern Rock. I empathise with their concerns, but there is no more chance of the bank collapsing now than there was a week ago. And to spend hours queuing up to withdraw deposits is just a complete waste of time. I think the real victims in this are the staff of Northern Rock, and being a Nationwide employee, I sympathise with the misery they must be going through at this time.
Carleton Webb, Hereford, UK
Is so incredible that the people feel secure with his savings in a bank nowadays... and like the nurse just I have to tell her : spend your money or you will lose everithing in 8 weeks
Roland, Mercedes, Argentina
In the US and the rest of Europe the central banks injected billions to support liquidity. It remains to be seen whether the lack of action by the BoE in the early stages of the credit crunch will be partly responsible for Northern Rock going to the wall this week?
David Thijm, Stourbridge, UK
Of course people have lost confidence in Northern Rock - The Chancellor says "your money is safe" so it obviously isn't!
OK, so I exaggerate, but did anyone notice that on the BBC news last night he was asked 3 times "can you guarantee that saver's money is safe" - and each time he prevaricated?
If Darling cannot even lie convincingly, why should anyone take the risk?
Mike Bibby, St Albans, England -not EU
I imagine most of the people in the queues have less than £30,000 in the bank. Wouldn''t it make sense for the FSA compensation scheme to cover the first £30,000 one hundred percent rather than the current scheme. This way most of the people would probably not have joined the queues knowing that their money was safe even if bank went bust.
RON MCLAUGHLIN, erskine, scotland
These people are total morons! Northern Rock is not insolvent. If it does become insolvent it will probably be due to idiots withdrawing their deposits.
If I had spare cash at the money I'd be buying NR shares like crazy.
AJL, Newcastle, UK
But, is it really solvent? If it's really been piling on morgtgages at 125% of property values then it's not surprising if it gets into a big mess when a crisis erupts- where is the safety margin? Looks like another case of poor regulation which is presumably why the Bank of England Governor is running around trying to persuade everyone that it is is solvent- maybe it is, maybe it isn't but why should people take the additional risk of waiting? By bailing out such companies the Government and the Bank of England simply create moral hazard. That is not their job. They have done quite enough damage already by failing in their duty to the public to regulate effectively- they should keep quiet .
Doug, Glasgow,
Confidence with financial insitutions is key, not logical views from managements of these intitutions who will always talk their own book. The fact is that the short term liquidity crisis is real, serious and the majority of UK financial intitutions are affected - the degree of exposure varies but who whould have the helicopter view other than the Bank of England?
It is crucial that BoE performs the necessary micro steps to ensure that confidence, already quite fragile now, is maintained.
T S Low, Zurich, Switzerland
Talk about panic being overdone. The NR is underwritten by both the Bank of England and the deposit protection scheme. I am both a saver with the NR and own a few shares. My thoughts are not to withdraw, but to see whether I can buy some more shares. My mother has her life savings in NR and I am telling her to keep away from the crowds and wait. When this calms down, no doubt someone will but NR. They have had a good model to achieve a market share as leaders, but even with modifications, it has to be remembered that they had the lowest operating cost and the highest profit.
Rex Imperator, Croxmotheringham, Lincolnshire
âThe question is why wouldnât you take your money out and put it somewhere else,â said one senior banker.â
Exactly! Northern Rock needs to announce an incentive to savers not to withdraw their funds. I would suggest a bonus rate of an additional 1% on balances held in an account from today for three months. It will hurt the bankâs bottom line but it should stop the run.
DJB , London,
I wouldn't trust Government reassurance either. Since when have they told the truth?
Judy , Liverpool, england
Since Northern Rock are not allowing withdrawals from their internet accounts, why are they opening their local branches? Are all the cheques they are giving out going to 'bounce'?
Lorna Fullard, Abingdon, Oxon, UK
However you cut it, HMG/BofE have not done this well. The run on the bank is BECAUSE of their involvement. They are supposed to stop runs; not cause them.
Stephen Phillips, London, UK,
Your article says it is easy to transfer funds from Internet banking accounts. Not at Northern Rock! They have turned the website off!!
Warwick, Bewdley, UK
Despite assurances from the FSA, Mervyn KIng, Gordon Brown etc., people have still rushed to get their money out. Some have not been able to log on to do so. Do this not suggest that:
a) We do not trust our masters.
b) Internet accounts let a bank hide a run.
How long would the queues have been if those trying to access their internet accounts had been real members of the queues rather than virtual cyber shadows?
By Tuesday, we should be hearing about how the fourth biggest mortgage lender is fairing. Surely, they can't be far behind the Rock?
Ray Warren, Dartmouth,
What disappoints me in all of this is Mr Applegarth, chief executive of Northern Rock, should have been visible on every news clip assuring customers there was no need to panic. The Rock are handling the communication side of their 'crisis' very badly.
Jackie McLure, Derby,
Button down the hatches.
Ths is only the start..........
And don't worry. Everyone's houses are still 'worth' £500k for the time being and there isn't a sub prime problem is there?
Pete Balchin, Solicitor , Bristol, UK
Northern Rock is fairly secure against a run. The so-called "instant access" Internet site is permanently down because of being overloaded by traffic, and by telephone Northern Rock say they can only do 1000 CHAPS transfers a day, which means a delay of more than 3 years for all customers to get their money out. (So, no moving house for 3 years).
This makes it easier for them to stay solvent for longer.
Gilbert Sandford, Nottingham,
Once the herd starts thundering all the claptrap by Brown,Darling and the rest means nothing they lie all the time to the public so whats different? why should we belive them.
mitch, wolverhampton, England
One can hardly blame savers for ignoring the new Chancellor's soothing words regarding Northern Rock. Can anyone believe politicians these days? They have turned the telling of untruths into an essential of political life, I cannot wait for the true state of the British economy to be exposed. I, for one, will not be surprised when the truth is told!
Rod Ballard, Leicester, Leicestershire
Blame all the irrational panic on the irresponsible UK media. What exactly is the difference in borrowing from the Bank of England as compared with other banks, which ROCK has always done? If the media had reported the news responsibly, perhaps all the panic would have been averted.
Annie, Cambridge, UK
will thebank of england assist any other bank who could find themselves in simalar circumstances in the near future,this was a private company and as such,should face the conseqences of wrong management decisions!
mary foy, glasgow, scotland
So if one get's into financial difficulties these days,one just asks good old "Merv" to lend us a few bob? Well, it does say something to that effect on the banknotes that were invested.So who bails out "Merv" when he goes bust?!
alan maddox, wirral, england
"Budd also predicted a cut in interest rates to help calm nerves."
For goodness sake Budd!!! It's low interest rates over, a prolonged period that got everyone into this mess in the first place.
Wake up!
Brickdust, London,
A cut in interest rates is the last thing the country needs,needs tempting though it may seem to people who do not think carefully.
The Bank of England is starting to see the results of its rate raising policy and to cut now would run a real risk of the house price spiral setting off again,as well as inflation. It is the worst possible time for a cut.
Savers getting a decent interest rate are very badly needed now,borowers being offered,and taking more than is sensible are not.
The present situation has got nothing fundamental to cause a cut in rates for the country as a whole.
Nic, Royan, France
Central bankers have been issuing regular warnings for 18 months of "problems in clearing" CDO/SIV's".
The run won't end here: mickey MacMarket participants are acting as rationally as Chicago School theory expects they must. For they ask themselves whether, if banks refuse to lend to each other, why in the world they (as "savers") would.
The Market has been Freed. Good luck everyone.
Dion Per Sona, Cardiff, UK,
Yes, it is a worrying development. The Bank of England should have told NR CEO and its executive to take a hike. Northern Rock stock is going down on Monday so if you haven't sold your shares then do so the first thing Monday morning. I anticipate that people are going to sell in double quick time.
The housing market is over inflated anyway with a one bedroom flat in London for £200,000.00 upwards-Its time something happenned to the housing market to bring these prices down.
Who on earth would want a mortgage of 200000 just to get on the property ladder.
The Northern Rock saga is just the begining and I think it is good for the housing sector as a whole as prices will come down.
We don't need a society where people are indebted to these Banks for the rest of their lives. Its a scandal and I am glad that now we have a pause for reflection and ask ourselves can we have a sensible housing market?
If salaries went up annually in line with house prices then it wouldn't be so bad.
The Director, LONDON, England
Why take a chance?
Yes money is safe after backing from the BOE but there will be a run and it's more to do with the way the Bank has been ran...The "Brand" is dead as a Dodo and will vanish as many predict.
Applegarth will walk away with a tidy sum I suspect and the culture of reward by failure will continue.
In my opinion this bank should stand on it;s own feet and should not not have been bailed out by the BOE,who's only interest is to prevent a domino effect.
A bank run the way N Rock was ran deserves to go under..
jkm, Durham,