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THE world’s investment banks are to reveal a $30 billion (£14.9 billion) hit from bad debts as they unveil results that give the first real insight into the impact of the debt crisis.
City analysts predict the banks will have to write down as much as 10% of the $300 billion of leveraged loans currently agreed but not yet syndicated when they report third-quarter results to the market.
Banks are also expected to announce further hefty provisions to cover their exposure to commercial paper, including the so-called conduits and SIVs, a type of highly leveraged investment fund. In some cases profits for the third quarter could have been almost wiped out by a combination of exposure to bad debts and complicated commercial paper.
Kian Abouhossein, banking analyst at JP Morgan, said: “The hits will essentially mean that some investment banks will have made almost no money over the last quarter. Profits will be close to zero.”
“It’s going to be one hell of a week,” said one investment banker. “The banks’ numbers are as important as whether the Fed cuts rates. On top of that, what gets said will have a profound impact. People are spooked, there is a feeling that there are some surprises out there. Clarity is very important right now.”
In an interview to be broadcast tonight in America, Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, said that when he was in charge he “didn’t really get” how the boom in sub-prime lending might hurt the economy.
Greenspan said in the interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes that while he was aware of lax lending standards in the sub-prime market, “I had no notion of how significant they had become until very late. I really didn’t get it until very late in 2005 and 2006 [as he was about to leave office].”
Attention in the markets will switch this week to the Federal Reserve and its decision on interest rates on Tuesday. While the Fed is widely expected to announce a cut in the key Fed funds rate, and possibly an accompanying reduction in the discount rate, analysts are split on whether it will be a quarter or half-point reduction.
“There seems little doubt that the Fed will cut the funds target at least 25 basis points,” said Christopher Probyn, chief economist at State Street Global Advi-sors. “We believe that against the backdrop of financial market, housing market and possibly labour market fragility, 50 basis points could do much good and little harm.”
Nick Stamenkovic, an economist with RIA Capital Markets, said that American interest rates would end the year 0.75 points lower than now, at 4.5%.
This will put pressure on the Bank of England to reduce interest rates in Britain. Analysts expect inflation to have stayed close to July’s below-target rate of 1.9% when the August statistics are released on Tuesday.
“We expect UK rates to be cut before the end of the year,” said Robert Barrie, an economist at Credit Suisse.
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I have been doing research and I think and hope im wrong but we cant rule out a massive collapse of the value of the doller and the chinese stockmarket both going together while we here in the UK have a little local difficulty that would be one mother of a bad day.
joe, london, uk
I concur with Mervin King that lenders who have been reckless should not be bailed out. I do not see why the Fed should be so concerned about bailing out irresponsible lenders. It's high time that such lenders be allowed to die out of the world's financial system. It's time for a good rid the markets of suicide-bombers, I mean speculators. There have been so much hue and cry from irresponsible lenders and borrowers about the need for a reduction in interest rates that I am finally inclined to believe that the Fed might cut the rate. Should the Fed decide to cut the rate this Tuesday Fed I will have no reason to disbelieve that even the Fed could be nose-led by irresponsible lenders. An argument has been adduced that the job of central bankers is also to prevent a collapse of our financial system and therefore liquidity has to be provided at low rates. I do not agree for in so doing central bankers are themselves possible re-occurence of such crises in future.
R. Basant Roi, Vacoas, Mauritius
So, Greenspan "really didnât get" that lax lending standards would endanger the world economy. But he knew "the Iraq war is largely about oil.â Maybe Bush should have moved "the Undertaker" into the Sate Department.
Jenn, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Hyperinflation is coming for sure. Gold, food, and energy in some form is what we, the little people, can do to protect ourselves. The problem now is not lack of liquidity, but rather fear on the part of banks.
susan chisholm, southampton, UK
absolute greed has spawned this crisis, I always asked what are these people trying to do make sure people have not a dime in their pockets by over charging for everything. It was always the bottome line, charge an extra 20 cent on everything so we can cover the bottom line. I always wondered when people had no money to cover the bottom line what would eventually happen and I guess this is the end result. If companies, groups, organizations, lobbyist, and politicians had not been so eager to line their own pockets with gold (think JUDAS) a lot of what is happening to them wouldn't be. Don't ask for sympathy from the public, you have plundered and stolen f rom us and now the price will be paid not by the public, but the companies that sold their souls for money.
Ms Faye, vallejo, california
Central banks will inflate the world economy into oblivion. Little people will lose and the banking elite are the only winners. They pay lip service to fighting inflation to cover up their tracks. Gold and oil prices are surging. Hyperinflation is coming. People can only be fooled for so long!
Fedup, Vancouver, Canada
And the bankers paid £1m plus a year whose billiant idea it was to lend £300m of our money to people who could never repay it, and who dont even take a note of what they were lending and to whom? Why, they go on being paid £1mplus a year while we pay for their economic sabotage.
Capitalism doesn't work. Except for bankers.
julian, london,
So the BOE is going to cut interest rates.What a joke.The pound will fall,oil will shoot up and the battle against inflation will be lost.The market is already losing confidence in sterling.
Steve, Eure, France
The wide range of possibilities both for bank loss provisions against profits and for palliative interest rate cuts could offer scope for high market volatility as expectations are met or not, as the case may be.
The difficulty for those making such decisions would be compounded by the possibility of later amendment by any further actions necessitated by later information.
The complexity of such a multi factorial series of crises seems to be without precedent, and renders much prediction tenuous.
dr venables preller, Warminster, UK