Miles Costello
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Candover has taken a very rational approach to the question of what the turmoil in the credit markets means for private equity. The group, one of the few quoted buyout firms, states quite bluntly today that the pace of exits, or "realisations", will slow as a direct result of the seizure in some parts of the credit market. It also predicts that prices will fall.
To some extent this is obvious. The high yield and leveraged loan markets are effectively shut. For them to reopen, borrowers will have to pay significantly improved terms, and probably involving less gearing.
This means that potential buyers of assets — who need these markets to pay for their investments — will offer less, which in turn makes it less attractive for owners to sell.
Of course this could all make for some cheap assets making it on to the markets, an opportunity also not lost on Candover.
The good news for Candover is that it appears to be well placed to weather any storm. It is not raising any new funds, as it is still spending the €3.5 billion it raised in 2005.
Colin Buffin, the managing director, also says Candover is not under any pressure to sell its assets. Investors who were today told of a 23 per cent improvement in net assets per share are likely to be comfortable.
At £21.60, the shares have rallied 19 per cent off last month’s low, and sit within just 3 per cent of June’s all-time high. Given how the financial world has changed over the last three months, that resilience is remarkable, but gives little reason for first-time investors to get involved.
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