It is always the same. After - even in the midst of - a calamity, a disaster, somebody is looking on the bright side. So now, in the aftermath of some of the worst weeks for financial markets in several years, step forward the analysts who examine what they call “the real economy”.

Economists disagree on how strongly linked are share price woes with downturns in growth in the wider economy, but at present the consensus seems to be that Britain is well placed to withstand the credit crunch - provided, of course, that it does not get any worse.

There will be some effect. Financial institutions are licking their wounds - and financial services make up 9 per cent of GDP. However, Vicky Redwood, of Capital Economics, points out that half of that is made up of high street banks and building societies, which have been largely unaffected by the distress. Even within the City, there are those - brokers and dealers, for example - for whom the spike in volatility has been a good business opportunity.

Capital Economics estimates that the financial sector’s slowdown is unlikely to knock more than 0.1 per cent off GDP growth. Bonuses will take a hit, perhaps by between 10 and 20 per cent, but Ms Redwood said that would lower total consumer spending by only a negligible amount and on its own would not cause a dip in house prices.

Optimists also argue that falls in share prices have a marginal impact on individuals. Most people’s shares are locked up in pension funds and their confidence has been supported instead by the buoyancy of property prices.

That is not to say that economists do not expect some sort of slowdown. Geoffrey Dicks, of RBS Financial Markets, said that the panic over sub-prime mortgages was leading to a tightening of credit conditions around the world. “Over the coming months, mortgages will be repriced and borrowing conditions will become more stringent,” he said. “It will be the same on the corporate side. Credit will generally be more expensive and, for some riskier forms of borrowing, not available at all. The knock-on effects on spending . . . will be pervasive as households and companies are forced back on to income to finance a greater part of their spending.”

Mr Dicks also believes that as long as the turmoil does not pose a threat to the financial system, the Bank of England will welcome the shift to dearer borrowing. Lower demand is precisely what the Bank needs to reduce growth from its current above-average level and reduce inflationary pressures, he said.

The Bank had been expected to tighten monetary policy another notch by raising interest rates to 6 per cent this autumn, but the FTSE’s woes give its Monetary Policy Committee cover to wait and see whether consumer spending is slowing already.

Analysts are now arguing that rates, at 5.75 per cent, have hit a peak, but few predict cuts in the near future.

This sanguine outlook stands in contrast with the United States, where the housing sector is deep in recession and the prognosis is much more gloomy. Lehman Brothers forecasts that US GDP will grow by just 1.8 per cent over the next three quarters.

The Federal Reserve could intervene by cutting rates sharply, but that might only serve to encourage more of the reckless lending that got the financial world into such a mess in the first place.

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