Siobhan Kennedy
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If nothing else, the credit crunch has been a tour de force in the vernacular of the murky world of the credit markets.
We have gone from sub-prime to leveraged loans to carry trades — and this week’s latest is commercial paper or, more specifically, asset-backed commercial paper.
In essence, the commercial paper market is used by companies in need of short-term loans. They issue commercial paper, which is like a bond, as an IOU. Banks are big users of commercial paper. The banks package up billions of dollars of loans made to consumers or companies, through products such as mortgages and credit cards, into special financing vehicles called “conduits”. The banks then sell on the loans held within the conduits to investors, such as money market funds, insurance companies or other banks. They do this by issuing the commercial paper. The life of the commercial paper is typically very short, about 55 days. When the time is up, the bank managing the conduit will go back to the investors and roll over the commercial paper into another short-term agreement with similar interest rates.
In the United States, there is about $2.2 trillion (£1,100 billion) of commercial paper. About half of this is unsecured, like a personal loan taken out by a consumer, but $1.2 trillion of it is so-called asset-backed. This means that the loans are secured against assets such as the bank’s book of mortgage business.
The commercial paper market in Europe is worth $840 billion, of which about $300 billion is asset-backed commercial paper.
For the most part, the commercial paper market carries out its day-to-day business and rarely hits the headlines. In the past few weeks,
however, interest rates in the market have hit six-year highs as panicky investors have refused to roll over the paper. Instead of reinvesting in commercial paper that is coming to the end of its 55 days, investors are turning to other short-term safe havens, such as US government debt.
The pain has been particularly acute in so-called “single-seller conduits”, which are conduits linked only to one particular type of debt, for example mortgage loans. If that debt is exposed to American mortgages, the conduit, and the bank behind it, has problems.
For example, Countrywide Financial, the biggest US mortgage lender, was forced to draw down $11.5 billion of credit lines because of trouble with commercial paper. Financial institutions scrambled to end a crisis in
Canadian commercial paper and two small German banks were bailed out because of conduits with links to US mortgages.
The problems moved to Britain yesterday as HBOS was forced to provide facilities to its Grampian conduit to repay maturing commercial paper. In effect, the investors in Grampian would roll over and agree to reinvest in the paper only if HBOS was prepared to pay a higher interest rate on it. HBOS was not prepared to pay the higher cost and decided to take all the paper, worth about $37 billion, on to its own balance sheet and fund it itself, at cheaper rates. The bank plans to wait until the market has calmed down before trying to go back to the market and resell it to investors.
The big question now is which of the other big American and European banks could be hit next? HBOS was first to hold up its hand, but what of the other big lenders, such as Lloyds TSB and Barclays?
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Is this the last rivet popping, as the global financial system comes apart. And after that? First a new deluge of liquidity from the central banks - and then what kind of deluge?
Frank Parkinson, Lytham St Annes, Lancs. UK
With junk mail including offers of business finance and touting of mortgages beyond requirement and with seemingly little due diligence, for those with such need, the difficulty might be in separating the genuine from fraudulent ID attempts.
If such experience were to be widespread, and enthusiastically taken up by less than prime borrowers, there could be a situation where problems could arise for the extremes of the chain, over committed business owners and end investors.
As with US sub prime mortgages, there would be a time bomb effect from lack of information as to where worthless paper was held and what the consequences of that might be.
The total at risk would also be unknown.
dr venables preller, Warminster, UK
Time for the crew at the Bank of England to get their souwesters out of storage.
Captain King may have to launch the lifeboat soon.
Alan, Paris, France
Bryan is exactly right. It is not so much a liquidity problem as it is a debt or insolvency problem. The value of the commercial paper is unknown because the number and amouunt of defaulting debt in each instrument is unknown. Once this "junk" is marked to market it is going to be brutal.
Gary , Oregon, USA
If money was based on the gold standard, and the unauthorised lending of the regular demand deposit to expand credit was forbidden by law, as it should be, and the central banking system was abolished, as it is in Panama, none of this pretend money could exist. And if all this were to happen, there wouldn't be any more of ridiculous crises.
Charles Smyth, Belfast, Antrim
Really, there is not a problem with the commercial paper market. Buyers will come back if the rate of interest was high enough to attract them, as this story illustrates. The days of under-estimated risk and therefore low interest rates are gone and should revert, whether people like it or not, to their historical average. In the UK, that could mean around 8%. There are always buyers, but at the right price.
Bob, London,
Perhaps the credit crisis is, in fact, in two parts. The liquidity crisis, which is being handled by the central banks by acting as 'lender of last resort', their traditional role in any market crisis. The next phase could (or is that will be) the solvency crisis, when actual losses made by companies like Grampian but without a major bank in the background have to put their hands up to the thumping losses they are making rolling over
debt. It is going to be an interesting October I think. Start of the next quarter should be when the dead bodies start to rise to the surface
Bryan McGrath, Weston-s-Mare,