Ben Laurance
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CENTRAL BANKS are preparing to launch fresh interventions in money markets this week to avert a full-blown credit crisis after warnings by American analysts that up to $300 billion (£148 billion) of loans could be at risk.
Financial markets tumbled last week on fears of a looming credit crunch. The FTSE 100 is down almost 9% from its mid-June peak.
The European Central Bank, America’s Federal Reserve and other central banks injected $300 billion into the banking system within 48 hours in a bid to avert a financial crisis. They stepped in when banks, spooked by sudden and unexpected losses from bad loans in the American mortgage market, suspended normal lending.
The crisis in credit markets threatens a worldwide economic slowdown, bringing to a halt more than a decade of increasing prosperity and employment for Western economies. In a bid to head off a downturn, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, with the European Central Bank likely to postpone rate rises.
The Bank of England, which last week signalled a rise in interest rates to 6% in coming months, is resisting pressure to cut the cost of borrowing. The Bank appears determined to use higher interest rates to push inflation back down to the government’s 2% target.
Andrew Sentance, a member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee, said in an interview with The Sunday Times today that “the most important thing in judging the inflation risk is the impact the global economy is having . . . we may have to lean in a different direction to keep the UK economy on an even keel.”
New American estimates suggest that the amount of loans at risk could be far greater than thought. Chris-topher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics, which builds risk systems for regulators and auditors, said there was between $250 billion and $300 billion at risk in collateralised debt obligations (CDOs), funds made up of risky junk bonds.
“The basic issue with these assets is whether they are in strong hands and not in the hands of someone who worries about what they read in the papers,” said Whalen. He described a lot of the buyers of CDOs as “spivs”.
There could also be big knock-on effects for banks, added Whalen. “This wave could be big enough to engulf commercial banks, too.” Mortage companies are under the most pressure; the shares of Countrywide Financial, America’s largest provider of home loans, fell on Friday after it warned it could face problems raising money.
The drying up of credit and falls in share prices are already having an impact on takeovers.
Five banks that underwrote KKR’s recent buyout of Alliance Boots have been able to syndicate the most junior tranches of debt only by accepting a stiff discount. “It went for 95p in the pound,” said one market dealer, who added that it was likely the discount had been sufficient to cancel out the banks’ underwriting fees.
There are fresh doubts over one of the world’s largest-ever takeover battles, the £48 billion contest for ABN Amro, the Dutch bank. Falling markets could disrupt efforts by a consortium led by Royal Bank of Scotland to raise sufficient cash to bid for ABN. Although RBS’s consortium partner Fortis received shareholder approval to raise €13 billion (£8.8 billion) last week, traders said the rights issue would have to be further discounted if conditions did not improve.
One insider said: “Fortis has to raise €13 billion in new equity, Santander has to raise €8 billion. Then RBS and Fortis have to raise a further €4 billion and €10 billion respectively. It’s not impossible, but it’s certainly harder to do in these conditions.” A rival bid for ABN by Barclays also faces turbulence. Barclays’ share price fell 7% on Friday while ABN Amro’s dipped almost 10% before rallying.
In America, securities regulators are understood to be checking the books at top Wall Street firms to make sure they are not hiding losses incurred in the sub-prime mortgage meltdown. The Securities and Exchange Commission is examining whether the firms used consistent methods to calculate the value of sub-prime mortgage assets.
Hedge funds have also been hit by the tumbling markets. There were reports that some funds at Highbridge, Man Group and DE Shaw were down by as much as 10% in the past 10 days.
Another said: “There is no discrimination. Investors are just saying ‘get me out of here’.”
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end the ppt manipulation, let the (free) market crash.
Keith Pierson, Detroit Lakes, MN
It almost defies belief ! Those Bankers get huge remuneration for chasing the market up, taking risks on our money. When the going gets tough, the Central Banks (using our taxes) basically helps them to keep the party going .... so they have no downside to the massive upsides.
There has been a lot of press on the unfairness of private equities.. however this is just a smokescreen. The real distinguisher is whether you are one of the people paying the taxes OR those buffons in the Markets.......Joe Public is merely subsidising them !!!
Tom, Belfast,
Why is the IMF and World Bank silent on the current interventions by the European Central Banks, US Feds etc. I thought that these two institutions have always championed free market forces and less interventionist approach. Contrast this current situation with those of the Asian financial crisis in the late 90s. Not suggesting that the current situation is of the same proportion but it appears that the same principles are not applied uniformly.........
X Wang, Singapore,
Since 9/11 the markets have been keep alive on credit life support. It's time to pull the plug and let the market(s) die its natural death. To continue with lower interest rates is to say it's OK to continue with the credit bubble. To raise rates is to cut off economic stability. I say the ECB, BoE, BoJ & Fed should just do nothing more and let the markets die of the ingestation of too much money applied with too much foist.
Henry Schweinbold, jacksonville, FL
As Elvis Costello once sang "Let em dangle"
Bill, Montreal, Canada
Is this black Wednesday all over again? Buildings built on sand foundations.
Harry Sahota, Gillingham, Kent
If you live by the sword or like a lot of neo-cons do;
preach by the sword, you should do the honourable
thing, "you know the last phrase ".
"Can't buck the market ".... there's another myth dead.
Yes, Mr king you have my permission in using my savings
next week to save the jobs of some pointless stockbroker
type's and give your rotten system some creditability.
and mr Redwood wants to give you more freedom............
like what.................. ?
How can you throttle reality even more than you do already.
M walker, nr Bromsgrove, worc
Central bankers these days are no different from the central planners in the old Soviet Union. They started intervening when the market rates jumped above the interbank rate that they had set. However, is this not how free markets are supposed to work? The market rate is the rate at which the banks believe they should loan money to each other based on supply and demand, not based on what the ECB and the Fed think it should be. I am sure even Karl Max will agree.
anthony, london, England
Our subprime is self-cert mortgages.
Do we now have to worry about the value of sterling these days?
If the BoE reduced interest rates would sterling fall too far?
What about the millions of gold-plated pensions paid to longer living former civil servants from general taxation?
Is our golden Brown economy simply a trick based on easy and cheap credit?
Maybe our golden Brown economy is simply brown!!
Costas Papadopulos, London,
when i owe the bank £3k on my overdraft because of my appetite for risk (horse racing) its my problem. they say how stupid i am for gambling and wont give me another penny till i learn.
when merchant banks have an appetite for playing instruments (gambling) of mass financial destruction they blame central banks. central banks accept blame and throw unlimited amounts of money at them.
crazy
when will they ever learn
michael mckeary, paisley, scotland
Why are they injecting cash in to the markets? What ever happened to the free market?
Aidan, London, UK
i play the risk game and my banker refuse,s me more money until i learn to give the gi gi,s a miss
merchant banks play weapons of mass financial destruction and central banks throw money at them until they learn to get it right, they never do
michael mckeary, paisley, scotland
I firmly believe that Fed & Co should just give money - free
non refundable to all Big Merchant Bankers, they just made honest mistake - we all make mistake, just bail them out.
After all why do we have Fed & Co, of course to bail out Wall Street & Main Street, we must make all these big financial institute running without any hitch, they make mistake, reward them with immediate bail out, it is the first duty of Fed & Co.
We can't afford to have big institution fail. Bush & Co will be
very upset if financial markets keep falling, it must keep going up not down. Fed & Co worldwide knows very well that pumping money is the only way to keep market floating and going up. Let us keep the market up - and more up. Dow
at 15/17K will boost Fed's reputation that they are super genius. Keep pumping Mr. Ben, keeping pumping.
Arvind Patel, Pune, India
So the central banks have created more money - debt - out of thins air to add to all the other debt that the banking system has created. And they are prepared to create yet more debt to stop their ponzi scheme collapsing - for the time being.
Alan Heaton, Frankfurt, Germany
When consequences of possibly sometimes imprudent over-lending on a scale greater than before (assisted by new techniques of credit management and creation) inspire unexpected action and comment by high authorities intended to reassure, there can be a perception of trepidation which might have similarities to that experienced by some on the vessel Titanic.
dr venables preller, Warminster, UK
Yet again, central banks are coming to the rescue of the markets! and by baling out organisations and individuals who clearly have made poor financial decisions (gambles?), the central banks merely encourage further waves of speculation and poor investment decisions (Moral hazard). Still, as irrational contagion spreads, i suspect that there will be very good opportunities to purchase good high quality assets such as FTSE 100 companies, sold down to meet losses elsewhere. Warren Buffet and other investors would certainly approve.
mervyn hinton, london, uk
Where were the financial regulators when the causes of this problem started to occur? Why didn't they identify and stop this abuse? It is pretty obvious - you don't lend to people that cannot pay and a simple risk assessment by the lenders and the regulators should have envisaged an increase in interest rates to this level or beyond at some point during the life of a mortgage. As the regulators / governments have failed in their duty it is right that they should support the markets now. Have we a new pension crisis in the making if this is not rectified?
David Buchan, Welwyn Garden City,
I would like to buy some pounds for 95p please. Could one of the above banks get in touch with me. Or is it only for bankers, this deal?
eric campbell, harrogate, uk
Why should any money be handed out by the central banks to private companies (ie banks) that took a commercial risk and lost?
Glyn Evans, Nottingham, England
Why has it taken the so-called professionals so long to realise the threat in lending funds to people who will have major difficulty in repaying their mortgages and taken steps to prevent the catastrophe that has occured. We small investors rely on their bumbling expertise to protect our investments but there would appear to have been a serious shortage in the application of their experience. I heed the warning that shares can go down as well as up but on this occasion it would appear that there has been a serious shortfall in the ability of the culprits.
K.Ingles, Ivybridge, UK
So after years of record profits the banks and hedge funds have got themselves into deep problems. It beggars belief that instead of them having to suffer from over indulgence and pure speculation that their gambling (there is no other word!) will be rectified by the central banks. Exactly what lesson does this teach the financial markets?
What about the millions of American homeowners who have lost everything, I have yet to hear of any aid for them. Yet these were known to be the most vulnerable people in society, yet the "whizz kids" from the city receive a compensation package. I, for one would be much happier to see heads roll and the markets to suffer, just so lessons can be learnt.
John Hughes, nagoya, japan
My concern is with my deposit accounts. For this you must try to identify risky assets on the balance sheet. My bank shows twice shareholders' equity in Mortgage & Asset Backed Securities plus a statement on Bloomberg by the Head of that department that "deals were going so fast there was no chance to check collateral". Indeed. And for what are bank officers paid? Bob Diamond of Barclays mentioned that the bank's interest income would hardly be affected. That's not the point. You need to find out if the bank's capital will be impaired when assets are marked to market. Supposing auditors will insist downgrades by rating agencies be applied,
then quarterly statements should be watched. But I found two big Dutch banks where such assets were "grossed up", impossible to identify; a big Swiss bank with 3X equity in what iis fast looking like "junk". You must make sure your securities are segregated in case your bank tanks, better make a frantic search - like me - for a "clean bank"
w foulkes, HAUT ITTRE, BELGIUM
This is quite simply a result of ultra low interest rates since 9/11 and the failure to restore them back to neutrality sooner. May have done wonders in the short term but for the longer term, an aboslute disaster. My view was that the central banks panicked quite unnecessarily at the time and it would be an even bigger mistake to cut rates in response to this latest crisis which is a result of their past interest rate decisons...
cww, Ipswich,