Siobhan Kennedy: Analysis
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to The Sunday Times
It seems hard to believe that just three months ago, most people had never heard of “sub-prime”, let alone knew what it was. Yet the failure of thousands of low-income Americans to meet the interest payments on their sub-prime mortgages has precipitated one of the biggest crises in financial markets in recent history.
And the fear is that the worst may yet be to come.
In retrospect, the crisis was inevitable. American families on low incomes were lent money way beyond their means with interest payments that were ratcheted up after the initial “teaser” rate expired.
For Felipe Deluna, a native Mexican who moved to America when he was 19, it meant that the 1 per cent interest he was paying on his mortgage quickly became 7.7 per cent. And Mr Deluna, who earned $2,000 a month, was facing mortgage repayments of $4,500. Like thousands of other homeowners in similar circumstances, it didn’t take long before Mr Deluna ran into severe trouble and was forced into a distressed sale of his home.
The problem was that the banks who had lent him the money had packaged up the debt and sold it on to hundreds of other investors, who got stuck with the bad loans when people such as Mr Deluna could not make their repayments. Many of those funds, most famously two run by Bear Stearns, the US bank, went bust as a result of the crisis.
Making matters worse, the packages of debt, so-called collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) and collateralised loan obligations (CLOs), did not just stay in America. They were sold globally, with billions of dollars ending up in Europe’s biggest banks and CLO funds. Now several of those banks, including IKB in Germany and BNP of France, have caused widespread panic by admitting their sub-prime exposure and freezing funds.
Unfortunately, those same banks and CLO funds had been fuelling the boom in the private equity sector. So it did not take long for the fear about sub-prime to spill into the buyout world. The result has been that the big banks, such as JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and Citigroup, who had lent billions of dollars for these highly leveraged acquisitions – such as the £11 billion deal to acquire Alliance Boots – have got stuck holding on to the debt as the CLOs, still reeling from sub-prime losses, refused to take it off their books.
The spill-over into the equity markets was also inevitable, in retrospect, given that the valuations of companies on the stock markets had been buoyed by the prospect of private equity takeover approaches. With no one lending to private equity the buyout market has dried up.
In this environment of confusion and panic selling, with rumours of hedge funds going bust and banks sitting on billions of dollars in sub-prime losses, it is not surprising that the European Central Bank intervened this week, pumping more than €150 billion (£100 billion) of cash into the banking system to ward off fears of a global credit crisis.
But the reaction has been surprising. Rather than the markets being calmer, investors have become even more spooked, fearing that the ECB and the US Federal Reserve, which followed suit, would intervene in this way only if it knew something that the rest of us didn’t.
As one City source put it yesterday: “It’s like there’s some sort of black box in the middle, some sort of nervousness that the banks have yet to come clean on what the problems are. To be honest, no one is quite sure who’s lost what.”
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Good article, nicely covering off the key points. As you highlight, with hindsight, the inevitability of the fall-out was almost too obvious
Ian King, London, UK
Those swarmy very pleased with themselves bankers are getting their come uppance.
For too long they have been practising "Zaitech" and now we all know its been nothing more than smoke and mirrors.With a bit of luck this will be the catalyst to cause the overdue London house price crash.
Then real people with real jobs might actually be able to afford to live in the City they were born in!
When people spend £100,00 on a bar bill you know the end is coming.
James Currie, London,
It was obvious to myself and obviously many others months ago that this was going to happen. It has just proved what absolute dunces work in the City. I used to work for a hedge fund company and realised that no one in the company really had a clue how to control things. Hedge funds can be compared to war - after the first shot,, all the plans go out the window, and chaos takes over. The only thing the managers will now be worried about is their bonus.
Fred, Dubai, Dubai
Money cannot disappear. Several companies, and financial institutions lost money, and many lost their homes. But where did the money go? Or, in other words, who profited ?
Mike, Chapel Hill, USA/ North Carolina
I was writing about the dangers of this sub-prime market over 6 months ago in my Businessweek MBA blog. I had the benefit of talking to some senior management especially in mortgage-backed securities at companies like Bear Stearns quite some time ago.
The problem that you highlighted is that these complex packages of debt were being sold in world wide markets without any understanding of what was in them (their intrinsic worth). It was very hard to work out the liquidity or risk of these instruments. Whilst the value was going up no one thought to question the value. As in most bubbles no one cared as long as they were going up.
Now people all over the world are discovering what's really in these packages & it's a nasty suprise! A lot of them are completely worthless and it's causing shocks in the market so great that some respected experts are now saying this could lead to recession. The first time the 'R' word has even been mentioned since 2001- scary
Rudy E Parker, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Americans on low incomes?
Pete Balchin, Solicitor , Bristol,
All these foolish banks in the UK who have lent above three times the borrower's salary for the past 10 years are going to regret it soon. Is there no continuity of policy in these institutions? Is there no one in a position of authority in the Halifax, HSBC, etc who remembers 1989 onwards and says "No"! Prepare for the long-awaited crash - it's going to be painful....
John Tomlinson, Brentwood, UK
what the banking world have to understand money lending is differant to loanarranging.money lenders send the baseball bats around to collect, so today we a hybryde all risk no return bad banking in my view, its a crack hopefully not an eathquake.
the real problem iswhy give your savings or pension to bank who are unable to understand the difference.
michael joseph heavey, cahersiveen/adams town, MADNESS
Usury - the insistence on taking interest on an unproductive loan - has been condemned throughout history as immoral. In Traditional Catholic teaching, charging a mortgage on a house is a mortal sin (and the householder is not under a moral obligation to pay in full). And there is a mathematical certainty that a financial system based on usury is unsustainable. Like an Empire, it can survive & appear to thrive while it is expanding, but only because it is parasitising real wealth that is not yet exploited. The moment the Empire stops gobbling up subject nations, it goes bankrupt. The International Monetary System is feeding on money that doesn't exist. Sooner or later, Reality must manifest itself. In the Middle Ages, usury was illegal. Buying a neighbour's business for the purpose of closing it down was a hanging offence. It was illegal to evict a man, or take away his trade tools, however big his debts. The lender cannot morally be given total protection & the borrower none.
Michael O'Farrell, Cork, Ireland
"It's different this time". That's what the lazy, incompetent city whizz kids always say to support their high risk decisions. The trouble is, the majority of city types just ride one bandwagon after another looking for big bucks and taking massive risks with peoples pensions and investments. Let's hope the city gets culled back down to a rump of sensible poeple who actually work hard and deserve the bonuses they get.
Rob, London,
Fantastic article. I thoroughly agree with the main point of this article. I have been monitoring the US property market for the past eighteen months and the problem of foreclosures has been steadily increasing, which can be attributed to a number of reasons. Of course the sub prime lending market is vital, but the worsening economic situation in the USA in general has also caused this. Take Detroit for example - Ford's continuing woes have turned parts of Detroit into virtual ghost towns, and matters don't seem to be improving. The only thing that surprises me is why it has taken so long for the markets to react to this. America sneezed long ago.
Hassan Azam, Banbury , Oxfordshire,England
Not just in retrospect; it's been obvious for the past few years to anybody with half a brain who wasn't blinkered by vested interests or mindless optimism. Thankfully I've been preparing for this for ages. It's been hilarious listening to people explain Britain's housing bubble as being caused by supply/demand fundamentals rather than by the availability of cheap credit. Enjoy the negative equity, folks; I'll be enjoying my zero debt, cash surplus and precious metal holdings.
Kaitain, Vancouver, Canada
"To be honest, no one is quite sure whoâs lost what.â So panic with the mob to door, eh!
Brings to mind a parity, on an old Hemingway commentary;
Panic, as distinguished from cowardice, is almost always, simply a lack of imagination to suspend the functioning of oneâs ability to suppose the positive over the negative and persevere the likelihood that the darkness before the dawn is but prelude to a brighter time to come.
The again this is well exampled of the age of self-appreciative narcissism and Schadenfreude zealotry we live in, eh?
Feralgrognard, Highland Park, USA
Make up a sentence from the following words :
home - chickens - coming - roost - to
Sorry chaps, looks like the parties over..
Arrgghh!! No more buying some run down old gaff, painting the walls magnolia, and making a quick £40K.
Oh, and if you're an over-leveraged BTL - never mind, you can always go for an IVA (if the bank will accept it....)
Martin Emery, Burnham on Sea,
Oh really ! "In retrospect" ? Ms Kennedy must have had her head in a bucket not to have seen all this coming. You were given plently of warnings; by officials (IMF, BIS, Volker, even Greenspan), economists (Austrian mostly - and for many years) and the market - remember HSBC only a few months ago ?
Reckless lending and the rampant inflation it brings was not countered by the use of securitisation and the ability to get the risk off one's books - breaking the age old nexus between borrower and lender.
Now the central banks are up to their usual tricks of reflation and bail outs (which caused all this in the first place)- but this time the story may be different.
The difference between real money and credit created out of thin air is starting to become increasingly apparent and we've only just rounded the top of the roller coaster...
Bernard Harper, Sydney, Australia
Why in retrospect was it inevitable? It was clear to anyone with a half functioning brain that this was going to happen!
ADScott, Bangkok, Thailand