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America’s mortgage woes are spreading from home loans made to high-risk borrowers to encompass medium-risk recipients too, with potentially far-reaching consequences for US homeowners and their lenders.
Problems with risky sub-prime mortgages have been a focus for lenders, particularly HSBC, which is expected to write off about $11 billion (£5.6 billion) — much of it relating to this area — when it reports its annual results today.
However, lenders in the US face a new threat as defaults on the fast-growing “Alt-A” mortgages, medium-risk policies that stand between sub-prime and prime loans in the credit rankings, are also on the rise.
They have doubled to about 2 per cent in the past year, while 5 per cent of the two million such mortgages issued in 2006 will eventually end in foreclosure, according to David Liu, a mortgage analyst in UBS.
HSBC, Europe’s largest bank, is facing a crisis in its US sub-prime business and this has triggered a cull in the division’s senior management. Rising bad debts forced HSBC to issue its first profit warning in the run-up to its results announcement.
However, HSBC is also a lender in the “Alt-A”, or near-prime market, and while the bank played down the impact of its exposure in that area, the spectre of deteriorating credit quality across more of the US market is likely to be unsettling.
Federal regulators have become so concerned with the state of the sub-prime market — in which a fifth of mortgages issued in 2005 and 2006 are expected to end in repossession — that they are preparing to clamp down on home-loan providers’ lending policies.
The value of new Alt-A mortgages issued reached $400 billion in 2006, compared with just $85 billion in 2003, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. Mr Liu said: “The issues with sub-prime mortgages are clearly spreading and will cause particular problems for the investment banks whose involvement in higher-risk loans has become increasingly significant in recent years.”
As well as lending mortgage providers’ money to issue new home loans, investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and Bear Stearns often buy existing mortgages and package them as bonds backed by their interest payments.
The banks could potentially make huge losses on the loans they have made as well as the mortgage-backed bonds they have underwritten as the number of defaults jumps.
Adam Compton, analyst with RCM Investors, said that prime mortgages are far safer because they are made to clients with higher credit ratings and they require proof of income. He said: “The danger is that increasingly lax lending practices on sub-prime and Alt-A mortgages of the last two to three years has led to an artificial demand that could lead to an increase in losses among prime mortgages as well.”
By lending to people who could not really afford repayments, mortgage providers lift prices across the market, Mr Compton says. So, an expected fall in the value of cheaper properties as defaults on risky loans surge will drag down costlier houses’ prices. This will make it harder for borrowers to keep up payments by refinancing mortgages if they lose their job.
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If the sub-prime lending market is so bad why is it that Wall Street is still buying up these firms?
Also when is the attention going to be focused on Wall Street and the Rating agencies.
I really do not think there is a lender who wanted to go through all of this and be put out of business in a public forum. They sold into securities that at the time were rated better quality and it wasn't until down the road that the rating agencies downgraded based on performance. Once downgraded the lender reacts by tightening guidelines or must change pricing practices to avoid costly buybacks. But once the downgrade has happened the lender now sits in fear based on how much volume they THOUGHT they booked at higher quality due to rating agency grading practices.
Larry Miller, Chico, California
For years I have seen lenders qualify people to whom I would not lend a dime myself. People were qualified on the basis of a principle and interest only payment only and after the first year the tax bill and insurance bill ate their lunch. Thus a default.
These lenders either just accepted these facts and loaned the money or had the wool pulled over their eyes by the developer/builder. Either way, they deserve what they are getting in the defaults. They knew the risk so they put these folks in a very high interest rate category and finalized the loan.
Let them eat what they created!
Stephen Williams, Bastrop, Texas
To. Katrina was not the cause of this was it???
Firozali A. Mulla MBA PhD, Dar-Es-Salaam, Tanzania
As an accountant I have warned people for years that a house is method of managing your housing costs (period). A house is not a savings account. Relying on rising paper values does not represent a improvment in financial security. Many people have discovered that buying a house can raise their total cost of living in unexpected ways.
This curreent debt crises is one reason why I have always taken a sKeptical, dim view of current value accounting. Using cash flows to valuate assets, particularly to record current income is dangerous and misleading to investors
Peter Roach, MANASSAS, VA