Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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A surprise widening of Britain’s trade gap in December helped to push the nation’s annual trade deficit with the rest of the world to a record last year, official data revealed yesterday.
The pound was sent tumbling for a second day in a row after the disappointing figures showed the global deficit on trade in goods rose to £7.142 billion in December, up from £6.871 billion in the previous month.
After sterling was sent skidding on Thursday by the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates, the pound again fell sharply. It shed just under a cent against the dollar to a one-month low of $1.9484. Sterling’s trade-weighted index also fell by a little less than a third of a point to 104.9.
Despite this easing back in sterling in the past few days, the further rise in the trade gap was driven by a continuing deterioriation in UK export performance which will add to concerns over the present strength of the pound.
In the fourth quarter, the overall trade deficit on goods and services climbed to £13.5 billion from a revised £12.7 billion in the previous three months. Over the period the volume of UK exports rose by a meagre 0.4 per cent after the impact of persistent VAT fraud is stripped out. Economists said the poor showing will mean that net trade subtracted about 0.2 percentage points from Britain’s growth in the fourth quarter.
For 2006 as a whole, the global good and services deficit hit £55.8 billion, up from £44.6 billion in 2005, to its worst cash value since record begun in 1697. This was despite a £28.5 billion record surplus in services trade.
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People are not aware of the problem because the government does not have to keep proper accounts. Like the EU it can't get them past the Auditor but it does not need to by law.
Things may change in a few years when the EU insists Gordon Brown includes the £1 trillion it owes the public sector pension funds in his figure for the National Debt .
Brian Gilbert, HAMPTON, Middx
What me worry? Haven't you chaps heard, deficits, debts, deindustrialisation doesn't matter any more. Just read the estimable Mr Kaletski who, along with most of the economics profession, believes we can borrow and spend our way into prospertiy. I should have thought it was common knowledge know by now that East Asian central banks are really registered charities whose sole object in life is to bail out the profiligate and spendthrift Anglo-Saxon economies. So carry on asset stripping, selling the family silver, go ever deeper in debt - all will be well. Looks like we have found holy grail of economics - money does grow on trees after all. Milton Friedman was wrong of course, there is such a thing as a Free Lunch.
Errm come to think of it though, I have never managed to convince my bank manager of this. Oh what the hell, time to get myself another credit card.
Frank Lee, Wallington, Surrey
How vulnerable is the POUND if the UK trade deficit continues to break records. When will the rug be pulled from underneath the Gordon Brown and his house of cards? How can the POUND be saved? Higher interest rates!
Tom Bond, London, England
The public perception is that we are sinking into an overdue inflationary spiral with sky-high residential house prices. Consumers fear the worst as taxes must be raised. Spend now seems to be the best bet. Additionally UK interest rates must be increased to offset a depreciating Pound. UK trade deficits of this magnitude do not go unpunished. All indicators point to a day of reckoning for the top-heavy British economy. We may not have to wait for the next US recession!
Tom Bond, London, England
£55.8 Billion x current $1.95 exchange rate x 6 to achieve the equivalent ratio 'per capita' = $652.86 Billion Deficit in 12 months. 60Million UK population 300 million USA. The US's deficit is if one takes the upper trend of $67 billion per month deficit runs at $804 Billion. Not much different per capita then! The so called clever economist on this online version of The Times lambasted the USA economy as something in the waste bin. Read some of the past comments made. The Pound has risen - not on the back of a strong exporting economy which is real money but on the sucking dry of the populous through mortgages and credit card loans - M4 supply. The BoE knows this. Reality check. A higher mortgage is NOT POSSIBLE unless someone - a Bank either direct or through third parties will lend the amount required. Innocents (stupid people) need guidance and require being herded. New Labour have in the name of GDP thrown responsibility through legisltation to the wind. Growth through accruing debt is short term.
Paul Fissenden, London, Canada