Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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Soaring prices for petrol and food drove inflation back above the Bank of England’s target last month, sparking City predictions that hoped-for cuts in interest rates will now be delayed until next spring at the earliest.
Economists said that a worse than expected rise in headline inflation, which jumped to 2.1 per cent on the consumer price index for last month, from 1.8 per cent in September, meant that Mervyn King, the Bank’s Governor, is likely today to pour cold water on any chance of early reductions in the cost of borrowing.
The official figures showed that consumer prices leapt by 0.5 per cent in October, triggering the steepest increase in the annual inflation rate since March.
On the retail price index, preferred by many people, which includes mortgage costs that have risen sharply due to higher interest rates, inflation also climbed back to a hefty 4.2 per cent last month, compared with 3.9 per cent in September.
A 2.8 per cent jump in petrol prices at the pump, which have now risen above £1 a litre thanks to record costs for crude oil, was the chief culprit behind the steep increase in inflation.
But big increases in the cost of food rung up at supermarket checkouts nationwide also played a big role, with prices for food as a whole jumping by 1.8 per cent last month.
Overall food prices are now up by 5.1 per cent compared with a year ago. Meat, fruit and dairy prices were particularly strong, the figures showed.
Meat prices are 4.6 per cent up on a year ago, dairy products are up by 11.3 per cent, and the cost of fruit rose by 6 per cent in a month during October.
The cost of flour has risen by 30 per cent over the past year in its biggest gain since records began 20 years ago.
Worries that price pressures mean that the Bank will use today’s quarterly Inflation Report to signal that rate cuts remain some way off came just as fears over the economy were fuelled by more evidence from the Council of Mortgage Lenders that the housing market is cooling rapidly, with mortgage lending falling in September.
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