Christine Seib: Analysis
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Société Générale is one of the world’s largest equity derivatives houses, so
it seems ironic that France’s second-largest bank should be brought low by
the simplest of hedges.
Closing out a series of unauthorised bets on European stock market futures
cost the bank €4.9 billion. This came on top of additional writedowns of
more than €2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2007 - €1.1 billion on US
sub-prime mortgage investments, €550 million on exposure to monoline
insurers and an extra €400 million in unallocated provision.
After three days of talks with investors, SocGen yesterday announced a €5.5
billion rights issue. The additional fourth-quarter writedowns had been
largely expected and the fundraising will help to repair the bank’s capital
position, so the financial outlook is not dire. But nothing is likely to
erase the embarrassment caused by a failure of the risk controls in SocGen,
usually considered a leader at managing these kinds of threats. The trader
concerned, Jérôme Kerviel, is being painted as a lone lunatic who would have
circumvented the systems of even the world’s sharpest bank. Now SocGen must
wait to see whether its shareholders and clients accept this explanation.
Analysts at Cazenove predicted “some client losses” and cut their 2008 net
income estimate for the bank. The alleged fraud “raises questions over
SocGen’s controls procedures, reputation in the core equity derivatives
business and management credibility”, they said.
Opinion is mixed on whether this slump in SocGen’s fortunes will lead to a
takeover approach, or whether the rights issue will provide an opportunity
for one of the recently acquisitive sovereign wealth funds to snap up a
stake in the bank.
The fully underwritten rights issue will no doubt be offered at a deep
discount of between 20 per cent and 30 per cent. Chinese funds have been
widely reported to be interested in the European financial sector and a
piece of SocGen might prove a bargain. Meanwhile, a takeover is not out of
the question. Unicredito, the Italian bank, was last year thought to be
interested in SocGen.
But a takeover could hit a barrier in the form of the Doctrine Trichet, an
informal rule under which the French Government frowns on cross-border
hostile acquisitions of French companies. Just how seriously the French
Government takes this doctrine could be seen last year when ministers
encouraged a merger between Gaz de France and Suez to stop Enel, the Italian
company stalking Suez.
In the case of the banks, however, white knights may be thin on the ground.
BNP Paribas would be a natural candidate, but, given the battering it has
taken in the credit crisis, it might not have sufficient surplus capital to
ride to the rescue. Most other banks are in the same position. Indeed,
Crédit Agricole had a smaller taste of rogue-trading trouble four months ago
when unauthorised trades at its New York proprietory trading desk cost it
€250 million.
Daniel Bouton, SocGen’s chairman and chief executive, who offered to resign
after learning of the alleged fraud but was asked to stay on by the board,
will go without a salary until June 30. The Bank of France has set up an
inquiry. SocGen has filed a criminal complaint against Mr Kerviel. The
trader is believed to be receiving counselling. SocGen shares were down just
over 4 per cent at €75.81.
The proud French bank will survive this scandal, but it will be some time
before it can hold its head high.
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