Sir Alan Budd

Former chief economic adviser to the Treasury and founding member of the Bank’s MPC

HOLD

I vote for no change. The MPC has to balance the high inflation numbers against the growing evidence of a significant slowdown in the growth of the economy. The slowdown will create a margin of spare capacity which should be sufficient to ensure that there are no second-round effects in response to the rise in food and energy prices.

Geoffrey Dicks

Chief UK economist, RBS Global Banking and Markets

HOLD

CPI inflation is heading to a peak in excess of 4 per cent later this year and the real economy is deteriorating pari passu (at equal pace). An ECB-style rate hike to get on top of the former would look very ill-conceived if the real economy were to take a sudden turn for the worse - which is where the current balance of risks lies. In due course the slowdown in the real economy will get on top of inflation and allow the MPC to cut rates but, with the peak in inflation still several months away, we are not there yet.

Charles Goodhart

Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance at the London School of Economics

HOLD

This month’s decision involves a difficult choice between a rise of 25 basis points and no change.

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