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A fresh Pre-Budget Report row emerged last night after it was disclosed that Alistair Darling had rejected at the last minute a move to raise VAT by 1 per cent after the next election. A Treasury document, inadvertently published on a government website, showed that ministers had recently considering raising VAT from 17.5 per cent to 18.5 per cent in 2011.
A temporary 2.5 per cent cut in VAT, which will expire in January 2010, was announced on Monday.
The Conservatives seized on the leak as proof of what they called Labour’s “secret tax bombshell”.
It came on the day that independent economists gave a warning that the gains from the new 45 per cent top rate of income tax, one of the measures introduced instead of the planned VAT rise, would be insignificant.
The Treasury is expecting to recoup £1.6 billion a year from increasing the top rate of income tax from 40 per cent to 45 per cent for workers earning more than £150,000 and a further £1.6 billion a year from scrapping the tax-free personal allowance for higher earners.
However, the influential Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said that the 45 per cent rate would raise “approximately nothing”. Higher earners could avoid paying the tax by contributing more into their pension plans, giving more to charity or leaving the country.
Those earning more than £150,000 will face an effective tax rate of nearly 60 per cent once national insurance and other taxes such as VAT and fuel duty are taken into consideration, the IFS said, which would prompt those with high incomes to seek ways to avoid paying the tax.
Accountants agreed that some of the wealthiest people could be tempted to leave Britain to avoid the new tax regime. The Treasury expects that by 2011 about 360,000 people will earn more than £150,000. “There is a real possibility that a proportion of the super-wealthy will decide to base themselves elsewhere. Those with an annual income of more than £1 million will certainly think about it,” Patrick Stevens, tax partner at the accountant Ernst & Young, said.
Mr Darling also came under fire after a Treasury briefing paper, published mistakenly on the Office of Public Sector Information website, revealed that a plan to increase VAT to 18.5 per cent in 2011-12 was drawn up for ministers as they reached the final stages of PBR consideration. The Conservatives said it proved that Labour would hit the country with the rise if it won the next election.
The PBR cut the rate of VAT from 17.5 per cent to 15 per cent from December 1 for 13 months at a cost of £12 billion. Thereafter it will revert to the 17.5 per cent rate.
But the paper setting out for ministers and officials the rationale for changes said: “The proposed changes will reduce VAT to 15 per cent from December 1, 2008, until the end of 2009. The standard rate will then return to 17.5 per cent from January 1, 2010, and subsequently increase to 18.5 per cent in 2011-12.”
The Times understands that the option was considered as late as last Friday night by ministers, but then rejected.
George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, said: “This is Labour’s secret tax bombshell. It explains why there is a black hole in the PBR, because at the last minute Gordon Brown clearly decided to keep secret his plan to hit everyone with an extra tax rise to pay for his borrowing binge.
“These documents show that Labour was planning to deceive the British public, and will raise VAT on everyone after the election.”
Behind the story: the one-man judge and jury
Robert Chote, 40, is the man from whom economics correspondents seek guidance on great occasions such as the Budget. Director of the impeccably independent Institute for Fiscal Studies, his pronouncements are invariably the last word, making him one of Britain’s most respected economists.
But his robustly independent work has also made him a huge irritant to the Treasury: as the FT’s economics editor from 1995 to 1999, Mr Chote was loathed by Gordon Brown.
After leaving the FT he became a speechwriter for the IMF, before joining the IFS in October 2002.
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So what will the rate be when (not if) there is no recovery in the second part of next year, and inflation stays up due to high import prices caused by high import prices (falling pound)
KW, Bognor Regis, England
Martin of Winchester, you cannot have it both ways - if "prices in the whole [will] not be effected by the drop in VAT" then why should they be affected when VAT rises again?
And, has no one else here ever considered a particular course of action, only to subsequently reject it?
Simon Stock, Meppershall, Bedfordshire
Sorry Aistair but the retailers will not pass the drop in VAT on nor will the wholesalers who have seen their own margins attacked by a falling pound. This will just increase government debt and bring greater tax increases in a few months time.By 2010 VAT will be stuck at 18.5%
Gerard Connolly, London,
the .5% increase in NI is a catastrophe, it will encourage employers to lay people off and it will discourage them from hiring new people. for every person on the average wage, they have added £100 PA. a company employing 1000 people would have increased costs of £100K PA. what planet are they on?
will, grimsby, uk
Does HMRC have a habit of putting the Treasury Secretary's signature on policy documents by mistake? Is this to be another investigation we never here the results of?
"Err yes, two out of three parts are true, but not the rising bit at the end. The TS signature is a clerical error". Yeh right.
Anthony Lester, Brum,
I believe that I have the maths right on this, a purchase of 100 pounds value today costs 117.50 becaouse of the imposition of vat at 17.50%. As a result of these moves it will shortly cost 115 pounds. Britions will now spend ferociously!!
Darling is not REALLY a Chancellor, is he?
John Wood, Uxbridge, UK
Everyone is complaining that a 2.5% decrease in VAT is not gonig to affect anyone. How then can people then claim a 1% increase would be such a terrible thing. You can't have it both ways.
Linky, London,
He is the do nothing leader of a do nothing party.
The thing is G Brown that doing nothing would actually be better than what Labour are doing. 15% VAT will not do anything other than waste money which we can ill afford to do. But I do wish the Tories would propose how we get out of this mess
Keith Sloan, Nr Winchester, UK
what? you must be joking? u do know saying this would only make it worst for ur party right? if u wanna take any measures, pls take a brave step or take none at all...a 2.5% reduction is nthg i tell you, take 7.5% and maybe you'll see the difference..otherwise just don't do it..such a disappointment
jamie, Brighton,
When will the moaners learn that money for services and major projects - transport for example - has to come from somewhere. If so, they shouldn't then complain about the high price of Britain's train tickets and lack of good hospitals. 19 per cent VAT would still be average for the EU.
Barrie Redfern, Zdole, Slovenia
The interesting part of the proposals is that not only will prices in the whole not be effected by the drop in VAT as most retailer and other benefactors will just keep the reduction. In a couple of years we will see in an effect an inflationanary rise is prices by 3.5% as VAT is re-imposed.
martin, winchester,
The Conservative Australian government managed to repay all debt in the good times and now runs a budget surplus which will be used to stave off a recession. This is an example othe UK govt should've learnt from. Too late now i guess.
tom, London, UK
Labour policy is surely shown now to be geared to the political cycle, ie an election by, at latest, 2010, rather than the economic cycle. Did anyone really believe Brown had any other interest than re-election?
Cyril, Truro, UK
Funny... Always the have nots are happy for the rich to take their money and leave. Do they not know who pays their benefits, who pays for their treatment on the NHS, who gives them jobs, etc. If they don't once Gordon has taxed everyone with a bit of money out the country, they soon will!
Anton, Fleet,
I hope that all the rich people leave the country. See if I care, I never liked them anyway.... Horrible people with more money than me...
Oh hang on, how are we going to pay for all the stuff that their taxes supported now? Oh please come back, please oh please.
Hugh, London,
The cabinet is doing panto this Christmas, Life On Mars
By taking us back to the 1970s economy
Masaud, Manchester,
God forbid, the Tories using the truth to challenge the Government.
To Gordon and Alistair:
Why bother with the truth if it doesn't support your case?
Alan Kelly, Manchester, UK
Could the Times perhapsconsider simplifying and varying its headlines?
Instead of this constant "Government denies...." How about, "The Government lies again....."?
Robert, Hull, UK
Having told us they were going to be upfront about Tax Rises, yet again Labour is being untruthful. The IFS also confirmed the Conservative claim that those earning £20,000 and above would be worse off, contradicting the government statement that it would only be people earning above £40,000.
james, swindon, uk
Surely it is right that the Govt consider all options and a raisxe in VAT shouldnn't be off the table. As it happens they have decided to tax the rich more which is very sensible. I supported the Tories but no more!
Craig, Glenorthes,
Old Labour never went away. It's called Tax and Spend. Or rather Borrow and Tax and Spend.
Paul Freeman, London, England
The world is now not such a friendly place to tout your wares. The very wealthy are more than welcome to leave this country. Just like the bankers being told not to claim bonuses are welcome to go and find other highly paid jobs in the rest of the worlds sound and well founded banking sectors. Sneer
Ian, Manchester,
Barquentine - so no matter how hard someone works, or where in the world that person wants to reside, you reckon the greedy govt should FORCE them to keep paying?! Are you for real? That's THEFT. Simple.
bertie, London,
The only reason for the 45% is Labour spin. Its irrelevant in tax terms but it gives the immpression that only the rich will pay which whilst untrue still makes many voters feel better. Also if their opponents talk about it it makes them look unsympathetic to the ordinary voter
Bill G, Slough, UK
If the rich threaten to live elsewhere to avoid tax, then do as the Americans do: make them liable to tax on their income wherever they live. Simple.
Barquentine, Solihull,
It isn't going to happen, as far as Labour is concernrned th next election is unwinnable for them, the public now know them for what they are.
There are now several respectable alternatives to voting either Labour or Conservative never mind Liberal,enough is enough!
Clive Burghard, Lancing, ENGLAND