Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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The threat that the Bank of England's concerns about inflation will lead it to peg interest rates until the summer increased yesterday after it said that Britons expected prices to keep rising.
The public's expectations of inflation, a crucial issue for the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), continued to reach new records last month, according to the Bank's latest survey of households.
The MPC fears that recent steep increases in food and fuel prices will lead individuals and companies to expect higher inflation and that this will stoke up wage demands and encourage companies to raise prices, making this strengthening in inflationary pressure a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Those anxieties will be aggravated by the poll findings, which showed that the average expectation of inflation in a year's time among households jumped to 3.3 per cent in February from 3 per cent in November. It was the highest figure since the quarterly survey started in 1999.
Paul Dales, of Capital Economics, said: “The further rise will boost the MPC's fears that high inflation is becoming embedded in the system. This will clearly spook the MPC, increasing the chances that interest rates will remain on hold in April and perhaps even May too.”
Economists said that the jump in expectations of inflation may have been fuelled by the steep increases in prices charged by energy companies and supermarkets.
The MPC will be concerned that the most common prediction was for inflation of at least 5 per cent. The public's perception of current inflation was also a record. The average figure for the current inflation rate leapt to 3.9 per cent last month from 3.2 per cent in November and 2.8 per cent last August. Again, the most common prediction was 5 per cent-plus.
The survey showed that the public's satisfaction with the Bank dipped last month. The net proportion who said they were satisfied rather than dissatisfied fell to 30 per cent, the lowest since February 2000. It was 32 per cent last August.
Michael Saunders, UK economist at Citigroup, said that the rating of the Bank could have fallen further in the wake of the Northern Rock debacle. “So far the general public does not really seem to be blaming the Bank for the deterioration in the economy's prospects,” he said.
Pressure on the MPC to deliver early rate cuts is likely to be increased by evidence that the credit squeeze is continuing to push up borrowing costs for homebuyers.
Lending groups are demanding higher rates for new home loans despite the fall in base rates. The gap between rates charged on new two-year fixed-rate mortgages and two-year swap rates in the loan markets, which determine the cost of finance for lenders, rose last month to 1.21 percentage points, its highest for a decade.
Mr Saunders said that interest rates were rising more sharply for those seeking to borrow a high proportion of a property's value.
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Yes Gary,I agree. Any further interest rate cut by the BoE would,at this time,have a greater negative effect on inflation than a positive effect on growth.
They need to hold interest rates for a while and press businesses to take advantage of the low Pound to grow via exporting.
Hopefully the ECB will be able to start cutting Euro interest rates by the summer and the UK could then follow suit.
andrew K, rennes, france
As far as the Euro v GBP exchange rate is concerned, all the hype is about how well the German economy is doing - the Eurozone is in effect a one country machine. Just look at what is happening in the other Eurozone countries - Spain, Italy, France, Ireland to name but a few. In The Netherlands, many people expect to repay their mortgages with investment portfolios that assume 8% rates of return in the stock market and also get full tax relief on their interest payments. If the Euro continues to climb against the major currencies, this looks a very optimistic scenario! So, the question is: do you think that Germany will still be able to sell goods competitively given the huge swings in exchange rate between the Euro and the GBP/USD? Once German growth begins to falter, and unemployment starts to rise, the money markets will realise how fragile the Eurozone really is, and the money will flood back to the traditional homes of the USD and GBP. It is only a matter of time.
Peter, Guildford, England
Stephen in France, the diminishing value of Sterling comes from the BoE's stated *intention* to carry on lowering rates, hence the currency markets have already costed that decision in. There was a slight 'dead cat bounce' following the decision last week to keep rates on hold with the pound rising a cent to 1.31 Euros, before losing two cents down to 1.29.
The markets, hyped by the media, expect the base rate to be 4.5% by the end of the year, hence Sterling will carry on falling and inflation in the UK will carry on rising. A fall below 1.27 Euros would make pound worth less than the old Irish punt. Where it will bottom out who knows?
One could argue that the true exchange rate will be when the BoE and ECB rates converge. The endgame may be to lock us in at a fixed exchange rate not much above parity?
Paul, Coventry,
The Pound is falling because of all the pessimistic comments about the economy-largely coming from the UK media. In fact other than Northern Rock,nothing terrible has happened in the last 6 months and our top 5 banks have just produced good results. Growth rate is down & inflation up but no more so than in the other EU countries.
The BoE reduced interest rates to satisfy cries of help from the retailers & the CBI ,but this will have to stop in order to keep down inflation (and stop further falls in the Pound which ,in themselves, make inflation more difficult to contain)
Tony, Henley/Thames, uk
I agree with the comment from Paul in Coventry.The question I have is haw low will the pound be allowed to go.When I moved to France the exchange tate was about 1.5 Euros to the pound,now its about 1.25.Does anyone think it will be allowed to fall below the Euro.Also,interest rates in the UK are higher and the BOE havn't reduced them much so why is the pound falling?
stephen hulton, eure, france
Stephen in France, the BoE cut rates in December and February with the deliberate intention of devaluing the pound, hence devaluing all that mortgage and credit card debt. The BoE will carry on cutting rates as long as it can get away with it and carry on lying about inflation being so low. It doesn't help that the media collude in this by using the CPI, rather than the RPI, figure as a measure of inflation, even though the prices of most of life's essentials have risen by more than the annual RPI figure in the last few months alone!
Paul, Coventry,
House price inflation has caused all these problems.
The current attitude to inflation is analogous to an alcholic visiting his doctor with chronic liver disease. The patient states that he only drinks one pint of lager a day. The doctor replies that 14 units a week wouldn't cause the liver damage observed. The patient states that he also drinks a bottle of whisky a day which he doesn't factor in to his alcohol consumption.
Andy, Burnley,
inflation..the media say it is 3%.???
lots of things food, fuel, heating, water have gone up by 10% at least .unless you are including yachts fast cars ..
we the people are lied to all the way down the line by the politicians newspapers bankers governments blair the liar spoke when he first came into office about "TRANSPARENCY".
from the war in Iraq to the lies about the financial state of our nation.he got out didnt he ,well i hope he finds it hard to sleep at night with the blood of innocent peoples of the world on his hands.. he s a sick megalomaniac et al Bush, brown ...
adam, london, england
Why did they cut them in December and February?Anyone got any ideas.
stephen hulton, eure, france
What do mean inflation fears?
Inflation is a heinous fact, in one significant area that for some perverse blind-spot reason gets excluded: house prices. Which are actually part of the economy, with significant knock-on effects.
Joe, Manchester,