Philip Webster, Political Editor, and Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
Attend a special evening hosted by Mike Atherton
Matthew Parris | Anatole Kaletsky | David Wighton | Peter Riddell | Leading article | Sketch | Blog: Comment Central | Blog: Red Box | Blog: Money Central | Podcast: Maurice Fitzpatrick | Budget calculator | Graphic | Budget 2009 full coverage
Alistair Darling read the last rites over new Labour yesterday by saddling Britain’s highest earners with a new 50 per cent tax rate as he struggled to dent a £1.4 trillion mountain of debt.
About 350,000 people who earn more than £150,000 a year face a triple hit of charges. Their top rate of tax will rise from 40 per cent to 50 per cent next April; their personal allowances on which they currently do not pay tax will be wiped out; and their tax relief on pensions will be reduced to 20 per cent. On average they will be £80 a week worse off.
A further 750,000 people who earn more than £100,000 will lose their personal allowances and be about £40 a week worse off.
The Chancellor’s 51-minute Budget speech was marked by the worst economic figures in peacetime. MPs gasped as he reeled off a list of eyewatering numbers, most shockingly that Britain’s debt will amount to 79 per cent of GDP in 2013-14, at £1.4 trillion, and that borrowing over the next two years will total £348 billion, and £703 billion over five years.
The plunge into the red comes as tax revenues tumble. Two or three general elections may have passed before the finances are back in balance.
Even yesterday’s figures were based on a gamble. Mr Darling forecast that although the economy will contract by 3.5 per cent this year – far worse than expected – it will start growing again towards the end of the year, expand by 1.25 per cent next year, and rise to 3.5 per cent in 2011.
The predictions were dismissed as overoptimistic by the City and dishonest by the Conservatives.
Within minutes of Mr Darling sitting down the International Monetary Fund had issued contradictory forecasts that the economy would be worse this year (a contraction of 4.1 per cent) and that the slump would continue into next year (minus 0.4 per cent). Its consolation for Britain was that Germany, with a 5.6 per cent slump, and the eurozone, with a drop of 4.2 per cent, would do worse.
Mr Darling predicted that borrowing would be halved within four years but added that deflation would hit minus 3 per cent by September.
David Cameron said that any claim that Labour had to economic competence was “dead, over, finished”.
The richest 2 per cent of the working population will bear the brunt of measures, which included a fiercer than expected assault on public spending, designed to show that somehow over eight years – two years longer than expected – Britain’s finances might get back on course.
The income tax rises will come in at the start of next year’s general election campaign, assuming that Gordon Brown goes to the country on May 6, local elections day.
For three elections Labour’s flagship manifesto pledge has been not to raise the basic or top rates of tax. Mr Darling has broken it because he felt that it was right for the better-off to shoulder the burden, but Labour’s claim to be the party of aspiration will suffer. Yvette Cooper, the Treasury Chief Secretary, said it was the right response to “exceptional circumstances”.
The 50 per cent rate replaces the 45 per cent level announced in November’s PreBudget Report and will come in a year earlier than planned. Spotting an obvious trap, the Tories will not commit to reversing it but will instead try to avoid implementing the 0.5 per cent rise in national insurance still in pipeline from the PreBudget Report at the end of last year.
The tax rises were clearly designed to appeal to core Labour voters at a time when the public sector is being squeezed.
Total government spending, which in November was planned to rise at an average pace of about 1.1 per cent a year after inflation from 2011 to 2013, is now slated to fall in real terms, by 0.6 per cent, in 2011-12 and remain broadly flat thereafter. That means cuts of billions beyond the £15 billion already sought in efficiency savings.
Petrol will rise by 2p a litre in September and then by 1p a litre above inflation in each April for the next four years. Alcohol and tobacco duties went up by 2 per cent from last night.
The main Budget measures, including the efficiency savings, will not bite fully until 2011. Mr Darling said that acting any earlier would damage the prospects for recovery.
“At this stage, when there is so much uncertainty, to do so quicker would prevent us helping people now, choke off the recovery, and stop us investing for the future,” he said.
There was £1.7 billion of help for the unemployed. Anyone under 25 who has been out of work for 12 months is guaranteed a job or training place.
There will be £500 million in extra support for the construction industry to revive housing projects. The stamp duty holiday on properties under £175,000 will remain until the end of the year.
A scrappage scheme will help the motor industry. Motorists are offered a £2,000 discount to trade in cars more than ten years old for new, more environmentally friendly models.
Overall tax payments this year are expected to be down by more than 9 per cent from 2007-08 and £40 billion down on what was expected in November. At the same time, the bill for social security is set to rise by £32 billion between 2008 and 2010.
Economists warned that, with tax revenues plunging rapidly, if the Chancellor’s buoyant forecasts for economic recovery prove overoptimistic the gap between tax receipts and spending could reach as much as £230 billion, or 16 per cent of national income.
Spiralling deficits on that scale could risk a run on the pound and a market panic that could leave the Treasury struggling to sell the government bonds, or gilts, it needs to cover borrowing.
The head of the Treasury’s Debt Management Office, the body charged with selling gilts to investors, admitted that he could not rule out some of its auctions of the bonds failing as the value of the Government’s fundraising increases. The Treasury now expects to have to raise £220 billion of cash in 2009-10, a record amount, well above the expected figure of £180 billion and 50 per cent up from last year.
Mr Cameron said that it was the Budget of a government “running out of money, running out of moral authority, running out of time”.
“Today everyone can see what an utter mess this Labour Government and this Labour Prime Minister have made of the British economy,” he said.
Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, condemned Mr Darling’s failure to tackle the unfairness of the tax system. “This Budget is a political supermarket sweep,” he said. “A trolleyful of rambling policies without even a plan or any real likelihood the policies will be put into practice.”
The big numbers
£5.2bn
Extra revenue expected by the Exchequer in 2011-12, of which almost £3.6 billion is from just two measures: increases in fuel tax and the new 50p top rate of tax
£42.9bn
The amount the Government will spend on debt interest in 2010-11 is bigger than the schools budget
£1.4tn
National debt to double to this, which the Tories say will mean every child born owing £22,500
£14.7bn
Tax receipts will be £14.7 billion lower than estimated last autumn in 2008-09 and £39.4 billion lower in 2009-10
48%
Public spending is set to fall from 48 per cent of national income to 39 per cent in 2017-18
91%
Percentage of the cost of every packet of cigarettes that will be tax
Source: Times research
Sam Coates keeps you up-to-date with events from Westminster
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports
We are backing British business, what is the confidence of the nation and what businesses are succeeding?
Growing demand for energy, oil that is harder to reach and the rise of carbon dioxide emissions. We examine the energy challenge
With rail travel in Europe on the rise, we review the benefits of travelling by train
In this special section we explore new food trends to help improve your dinner party and impress guests
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
1998
£47,955
12 months for the price of 11 and a 5% discount.
Offer ends 31/11/09
Check your free Experian credit report before applying
Car Insurance
£353 per day
Phonepay Plus
London
£12,000 plus expenses
Ministry of Justice
London
£37,000
Department for Culture, Media and Sport
London
Currently £36,285
Department for Culture, Media and Sport
London
Moments from Battersea Park.
For sale with Winkworth
Find out about shared ownership.
See your free Experian credit report beforehand
Accommodation, flights, tickets to the race and a KL city tour for only £999pp
PremierHolidays.co.uk
For your ultimate tailor-made ski holiday, click here
Get covered on your travels with a superb range of policies at great prices. Visit InsureandGo.com
World Class Golf, Spa and preferential Beach Club. Private estate overlooking West Coast
Villas from £275 per night inclusive of Golf
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.