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The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee was split 7-1 on its decision to leave interest rates at 4.5 per cent this month -- providing few clues on whether the next move will be up or down.
Minutes of the MPC's two-day meeting ending April 6 showed that the committee thought little had changed over the previous month, with growth continuing steadily and inflation staying close to its 2 per cent target.
Economists had predicted the outcome, and generally expect the MPC to keep rates steady for at least the next few months.
Stephen Nickell was the sole rebel for the fifth month running. He repeated his call for a quarter-point cut because he still saw spare capacity in the economy which, combined with the effect of higher fuel prices on consumption, could push inflation below target.
Committee members were comforted that the overall economy and consumer spending had been growing at roughly its trend level over the last couple of quarters, while recent monetary tightening in other parts of the world had little impact on financial markets.
The committee also said that the UK housing market was about to slow down as mortgage approvals had declined in February.
However, several MPC members saw higher energy costs creating a risk of inflation, and noted that higher energy prices increased the risk of overestimating the economy’s supply capacity. They also noted that inflation expectations had picked up in recent surveys and would need to be monitored carefully.
Oil prices have spiked since the meeting was held a fortnight ago, with New York's benchmark crude contract trading at record highs overnight.
Only eight members attended April’s meeting because Richard Lambert left the MPC last month. The Treasury has not yet named his successor.
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