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THE public’s view of inflation is at its most negative for at least six years, a revised survey showed yesterday, which gives the Bank of England a further reason to resist calls for a cut in interest rates.
The quarterly survey, conducted by NOP for the Bank, found that people believe inflation to be on average at 2.7 per cent, well above its actual level of 2 per cent on the consumer price index and 2.4 per cent on the retail price index.
The figure was sharply up from 2.2 per cent recorded in November.
In a further worrying sign for the Bank, the median expectation for inflation over the coming year was 2.8 per cent.
The figures were slightly higher than an earlier estimate published last month, which found public perceptions of inflation at 2.6 per cent and expectations at 2.7 per cent.
Perceptions and expectations of inflation matter because they can become self-fulfilling prophecies, contributing to pressure on wages while allowing businesses to raise prices unnecessarily and thus driving up the actual rate of inflation.
However, John Butler, of HSBC, said that the data were not surprising, as inflation was no longer persistently below its target, as it had been for much of the past six years.
He said that the Bank had factored the provisional figures into its meetings in March and April, when it kept rates on hold at 4.5 per cent.
The survey also showed that 47 per cent of consumers expect rates to rise over the next year, compared with just 7 per cent who expect them to fall.
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