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Britain’s goods trade deficit with the rest of the world widened more than expected in September to the biggest gap since January, hit by Britain's "cash for bangers" scrappage scheme which has driven a surge in car imports.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said today that Britain’s goods trade gap widened to £7.2 billion pounds in September from £6.1 billion in August, well above analysts’ expectations for the deficit to remain at £6.1 billion.
Today's dire figures emerge ahead of key employment data tomorrow and after official estimates for third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) last month showed that Britain was still in recession.
The trade deficit had been narrowing in recent months as economists and policymakers speculated that the weakness of the pound was boosting British exports and helping to rebalance the economy.
However, the ONS said that car imports to Britain rose by 30 per cent in September, while imports of oil also soared, which meant that the trade deficit widened again.
The overall deficit in both goods and services also widened from £2.2 billion in August to £3.5 billion in September, the widest since August 2008, ending a recent trend of narrowing deficit.
The oil deficit widened to £500 million, its biggest since July 2008. The ONS said that higher oil imports were due to domestic production being suppressed by summer maintenance work on North Sea oil refineries extending into September.
The goods trade gap with non-EU countries widened unexpectedly to £3.8 billion from £3.1 billion in August. Analysts had forecast a deficit of £3 billion.
The latest official unemployment figures are due tomorrow. The most recent figures showed unemployment climbing by 88,000 to 2.47 million in the three months to August and many analysts expect the number to reach three million next year.
Last month, a forecast of GDP for the third quarter by the Office for National Statistics confounded expectations for growth, by estimating that Britain’s output had declined by 0.4 per cent.
Hetal Mehta, economist at the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, said: "After seeing stronger exports in July and August, it is surprising to see the trade gap worsen, particularly given the weakness of sterling.
“However, the car scrappage scheme, which is helping to boost manufacturing, is also pushing up imports considerably, and so having an adverse impact on the trade data. Once this effect wears off, we expect a gradual move towards recovery."
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