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Finance ministers and central bankers are set to maintain their pledge to support the global economy, but they will warn this week that the recovery is too fragile to be taken off life support.
However, at its meeting in St Andrews, the group of 20 leading economies is likely to push ahead with its initiative, announced in Pittsburgh in September, to realign the world’s financial landscape and return to growth by requiring each country to write its own policies. These plans will be audited by the International Monetary Fund and will be subject to peer review.
The hope is that the consensual approach will persuade the rich and developing members of the G20 to work together to avoid recreating the imbalances of the past and to bring global finances back to health.
As in Pittsburgh, when countries were divided about whether the fiscal stimulus should be cut in order to start dealing with deficits, policymakers are bracing themselves for two days of extensive wranglings.
Several politically sensitive issues will require international agreement, including trade deficits and exchange rates. China’s refusal to be rushed into appreciating its currency has already led to international tensions, for example. Moreover, to cut trade gaps, export giants such as China, Japan and Germany would be required to promote domestic consumption and rely less on foreign demand. Countries with big trade deficits, principally the United States, would have to boost their savings rates.
Officials believe that the meeting in Scotland tomorrow and Saturday will try to flesh out more details on the commitment to subject national policies to international scrutiny, but little concrete work is expected to be done before next year.
Policymakers will also focus on climate finance initiatives, with issues over governance and funding mechanisms expected to cause disagreements among attendees.
Britain is expected to push other countries on bankers’ bonuses, having issued a fresh clampdown this week.
• Britain’s services sector recorded its strongest growth in more than two years in October, boosting hopes that the economy could end the recession this quarter ahead of today’s Bank of England interest-rate meeting. The purchasing managers’ index for the services industry jumped to 56.9 in October, the highest level since August 2007 and comfortably ahead of the 55.3 registered in September.
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