Gráinne Gilmore, Economics Correspondent
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America’s economy, the engine room of the world economy, returned to growth in the third quarter after its most serious slump since the 1930s, official figures showed yesterday, leaving the UK as the world’s only major economy still mired in recession.
US GDP rose at an annual pace of 3.5 per cent between July and September, exceeding economists’ forecasts of a 3.3 per cent increase as the effects of massive government stimulus packages filtered through.
The figures piled additional pressure on Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling as they gear up for their last Pre-Budget Report before a general election.
Shock figures released last week showed that the UK economy contracted at a quarterly rate of 0.4 per cent between July and September, leaving the country contending with the longest recession on record.
George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, said: “Gordon Brown’s claim that we were ‘best placed’ now lies in tatters. His recession plan has failed. The rest of the world is moving on and we are left behind.”
America joins Japan, China, Germany and France among the leading economies that have emerged from recession.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 per cent of economic activity in the US, rose by 3.4 per cent, the fastest pace of increase since the first quarter of 2007. Spending on durable goods jumped by 22.3 per cent, reflecting the rise in car purchases under the Government’s “cash for clunkers” scheme.
Residential investment also rebounded, rising by 23.4 per cent. Economists said that some of this increase was probably a result of a temporary tax credit for first-time buyers.
President Obama said: “This is obviously welcome news and an affirmation that this recession is abating and the steps we’ve taken have made a difference.” However, he also said that there was a long way to go.
Analysts also raised concern about the sustainability of growth. Paul Ashworth, senior US economist for Capital Economics, said: “Overall, good news may continue into next year. However, without a sustained contribution from consumption, this recovery is doomed ultimately to disappoint.”
Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for IHS Global Insight, said: “Today’s numbers overstate the strength of the recovery because of temporary factors including the ‘cash-for-clunkers’ programme, the tax incentives for first-time homebuyers and the big swing in the inventories. We expect a growth relapse in the next few quarters — though not into negative territory. The recovery has started but in its early phases it won’t feel like a recovery.”
This view was echoed by Timothy Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary, who said that the recession was “alive and acute” for millions of Americans.
US companies have shed about 7.6 million employees since the recession began in December 2007, taking the total number of unemployed to 15.1 million.
Christina Romer, the chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said: “It will take sustained, robust GDP growth to bring the unemployment rate down substantially.”
However, there was a glimmer of hope for the American jobs market as separate figures released yesterday showed that the rate at which people have been signing up for jobless benefits eased last week.
About 530,000 people made their initial claim for benefits, 1,000 fewer than in the previous week, while those continuing to claim benefits fell by 148,000 to 5.79 million, figures from the Labour Department showed.
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