The Times MPC – Details on how they voted

Sir Alan Budd
Former chief economic adviser to the Treasury and former Bank MPC member

HOLD

The revised GDP figures do not change much. They show that GDP has been higher than previously thought. But since this has been consistent with subdued inflation it could just mean that sustainable GDP has been higher.

The CIPS manufacturing number was strong and is now at a level which has been associated with interest rate increases in the past. This could be significant evidence that the UK economy is responding to the strong recovery in Germany.

It is not yet clear to what extent activity and employment in the UK is being affected and the MPC can wait for further evidence. But if this sort of recovery continues an increase in rates will be justified.

Diane Coyle
Managing director, Enlightenment Economics

HOLD

Growth and commodity price pressures might point to the need for an increase in future.

But it seems clear to me that real growth and consequently recent productivity growth have been under-recorded, meaning the capacity of the economy is somewhat greater than it might seem at first glance.

Some reflection is needed about the nature of structural change in the economy and measuring value added appropriately. The ONS's own figures on material product show GDP growth has been essentially all intangible since about 1990.

Geoffrey Dicks
Chief UK economist, RBS Financial Markets

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