Rhys Blakely in Mumbai
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At least 50,000 protesting farmers are expected to take to the streets of Delhi today as envoys from the world’s key trading nations meet to try to inject momentum into the faltering Doha Round of global trade talks.
The Doha talks, which the members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) embarked on in the Qatari capital in 2001, encompass an array of potential agreements — everything from the liberalisation of financial services markets to the regulation of fisheries subsidies — that could radically change the face of global commerce.
But they have made little progress since the collapse of a nine-day meeting of ministers in Geneva in July last year, which had been called to hammer out a breakthrough.
Western envoys blamed that failure on India’s refusal to dilute protection for its huge population of small farmers. The Indian Government, at the time approaching a general election, had said that they risked being swamped by sudden surges of cheap imports from developed economies.
Since then, calls to revive the talks have grown louder among those who regard them as a way to revive global trade from a credit crunch-induced slump and as a bulwark against protectionist national policies. A study this month by Washington’s Peterson Institute for International Economics said that a Doha agreement could boost the global economy by between $300 billion and $700 billion a year.
But it is not clear that any of the disagreements that have held up the talks’ progress have been settled. Today, the same Indian farmers whose plight helped to scupper the previous discussions have promised to turn out in force to make their voices heard.
Ajmer Singh Lakowal, president of the Punjab wing of the Bharti Kisan Union, the association of Indian farmers, said that 50,000 of his organisation’s members would rally “to keep agriculture out of the WTO . . The G8 countries want to send their farming surpluses to India. If that happens, our farmers will be overwhelmed.”
Indian officials have already discounted the possibility of a breakthrough in Delhi. The aim, they say, is to “re-energise” the Doha talks and to set a timetable for completion before a G20 summit to be held in Pittsburgh in the United States this month. Diplomats have said that the most likely outcome of the Delhi talks would be an agreement to aim for a deal some time next year.
The meeting, which runs until tomorrow, will give the two recently appointed envoys for India and the United States — likely to be key to any final agreement — the chance to size each other up. Anand Sharma, a former diplomat who is India’s new Trade Minister, has vowed to get partners around the negotiating table, a move many believe is calculated to counter the perception of India as the spoiler in the talks. However, his officials have insisted that any deal that endangers the livelihood of the 700 million Indians who live off the land is out of the question.
Ron Kirk, the US Trade Representative, spent Monday playing a round of golf with President Obama, mixing drives, pitches and putts with discussion about the forthcoming meeting.
Mr Kirk also has a demanding home crowd to please. American business groups are growing frustrated that Mr Obama, distracted by the economic crisis and healthcare reform, is yet to make a speech laying out his trade policy. Mr Kirk also has to deliver a deal that he can sell as protecting American jobs while opening up new markets.
Those present in Delhi include the five biggest players in the round — the United States, the European Union, Brazil, India and China — as well as other leading WTO members.
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