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Sir Alan Budd, former Chief Economic Advisor to the Treasury and former member of the Bank's MPC
I believe that interest rates should be left unchanged and there should be no extension of quantitative easing (QE) now that the programme of purchases of £125 billion is complete. A purchase of assets by the bank is an act of policy loosening, equivalent to a cut in interest rates, so the question is whether additional policy loosening is justified at this stage. Despite the unexpectedly large fall in GDP for Q2, I do not believe it is. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has permission for a further £25 billion of purchses which it can use if prospects become gloomier and it can, at some stage, request permission for further purchases, but for the moment it can pause while it watches the results of its earlier actions.
Bronwyn Curtis, Head of Global Research, HSBC
What should happen to base rates? Should QE be increased in scale, reduced/exit strategy begun or left unchanged on the present programme of £125 billion of asset purchases?
The Bank of England should keep interest rates unchanged and not extend quantitative easing. Monetary policy, whether price or quantity, takes time to work. The existing stimulus appears to be boosting asset prices and should filter into real economic growth over time. The housing market looks to have turned around with both activity and prices now rising. This removes one of the key downside risks as house-price deflation would adversely impact both consumer spending and the banking sector's balance sheet.
Should the MPC should or should not seek authority from the Chancellor to extend QE above the £150 billion maximum -and if so, by how much? Given this backdrop, the Bank of England is in danger of damaging its credibility by extending quantitative easing. Without a clear economic need for further action, it could arouse suspicion that the Bank's primary objective was the cheap financing of the government's debt, rather than meeting the inflation target.
The recovery is still in its infancy so while economic conditions do not currently warrant further expansion of monetary policy, it should not be tightened either. Then, if the economy or financial markets turn down, quantitative easing can be restarted.
Geoffrey Dicks, former chief UK economist, RBS
No change in rates; no further QE pro tem. There are encouraging signs from the High Street and the housing market; the exchange rate is beginning to show through on the trade side. For the moment there is nothing for the MPC to do but to sit tight and see if the economy continues to recover along present lines. The focus of next week's Inflation Report will be less on the near-term outlook but on where the MPC sees output and inflation heading over the medium term.
Professor Charles Goodhart, London School of Economics, and former member of the Bank's MPC
The main question this month is what to do about QE? There is no serious prospect, or reason, for altering official interest rates; but the pause in QE at the July MPC, and the opportunity to construct a full forecast this month, make it essential to reach a judgment on QE, both in total and in composition.
Let us consider whether the quantum of QE should be continued, (there is £25 billion left to use), expanded, or held constant at its present level; there is no case for a reduction. This depends on the answers to three questions:-
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