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Sir Alan Budd, former chief economic adviser to the Treasury and former Bank of England MPC member
I believe that interest rates should be unchanged. It would be sensible for the MPC to announce a further £25 billion of asset purchases, to bring the total to £150 billion. It is hard to judge whether further purchases will be necessary. On balance I believe that the current programme of purchases (including the extra £25 billion) will provide a sufficient monetary stimulus at this stage.
Bronwyn Curtis, Head of Global Research, HSBC
The worst of the global downturn is over and there are tentative signs in the UK that the monetary easing has halted the downward spiral in the economy.
The indices of current business within the PMI surveys are now back above the crucial 50 expansion line for both manufacturing and services. Credit and interbank spreads continue to narrow suggesting financial tensions continue to ease and this seems to be slowly filtering into looser credit conditions. The BoE’s Credit Conditions survey suggests that banks plan to make more credit available to households and corporates and are loosening terms such as loan-to-value ratios.
The M4 data show that lending (once the intermediate other financial corporates are excluding) rose at 6.6% annualised in May, which is a marked improvement on the 12% annualised contraction seen at the end of last year. The housing market also looks in better shape – prices have actually risen in the past two months.
The BoE has been pre-emptive with its QE injections. In the last five months, the Bank of England’s QE programme has amounted to 9% of GDP, twice the size of purchases made by the Fed over the same period. It took the Bank of Japan more than four years to get to that point. So I think there is scope to wait for further evidence of its effect as long as it is made clear that further injections are possible should the economy or financial markets take a turn for the worse.
The Bank Rate – the main lever given the vast majority of debt is based on short-term interest rates - should stay at 0.5%.
Geoffrey Dicks, former chief UK economist, RBS
No change in rates. Increase quantitative easing £25 billion as allowed.
On the basis of the latest indicators, the UK economy is further along the road to recovery than either the US or the euro area. This reflects the aggressive and timely policy easing that the MPC has put in place and a competitive exchange rate, particularly against the euro. The recovery is still being held back by weak credit growth which suggests that the MPC needs to keep expanding the QE programme. It should implement the final £25bn that it has been allocated and indicate to the Chancellor that a further expansion may be necessary in the months ahead.
Professor Charles Goodhart, London School of Economics. Former Bank MPC member
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