The UK housing market could be over the worst of the slump, according to a former adviser to the Treasury on the mortgage market.

David Miles, a new member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, said: “My hunch, and I put it no stronger than that, is that we have seen most of the overall aggregate house price falls.”

Despite the upbeat tone, he cautioned that a rapid return to growth was unlikely but that “there are reasons for thinking that the period of the most rapid declines in output may be behind us.”

The recovery in global markets is likely to start this autumn, according to a report published by Standard & Poor’s. David Wyss, the ratings agency’s chief economist, said a recovery was “likely be delayed until the autumn of 2009 and that the recession has proven to be much longer and deeper than expected”.

A key survey of activity in the services sector, which accounts for three-quarters of the British economy, showed expansion for the second month in a row, a further sign that the country may be in recovery mode.

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