Miles Costello, Grainne Gilmore
Win tickets to the ATP finals
The UK economy shrank by 2.4 per cent in the first quarter at the fastest rate in more than 50 years and far worse than expected, according to official figures today.
Revised figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that, between January and March, the economy contracted by its fastest pace since 1958. The ONS revised down its initial estimate, showing a contraction of 1.9 per cent.
Analysts had predicted that the revised numbers would show a 2.1 per cent fall in GDP.
Today's shock data is in part due to a change in methodology in the way that the ONS calculates construction and services output, but will do nothing to boost Alistair Darling's hopes of a recovery by the end of the year.
Construction output was revised down from -2.4 per cent to -6.9 per cent in the first quarter, but there was also a bigger than expected drop in output from the services sector, that accounts for more than two thirds of the economy, which was revised down from 1.2 per cent to 1.6 per cent.
Industrial output was revised up slightly to -5.1 per cent, from the initial estimate of -5.3 per cent.
Analysts said that the figures underlined the fragility of the economy, with some revising down their expectations for economic growth this year as a result.
"The downward revision to first quarter GDP growth clearly leaves an extremely weak platform for growth this year. The average GDP growth in 2009 now looks likely to be - 4 per cent or weaker rather than the -3.5 per cent we previously expected, " said Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics.
The data also showed GDP fell in the second quarter of 2008, meaning the recession started earlier than was initially thought. The country has now been in recession for a full year.
Today's figures mark a huge setback for Mr Darling and the Treasury. They have acknowledged that the UK economy will shrink by 3.5 per cent this year but are predicting that Britain will return to growth, of around 1.25 per cent, next year and in subsequent periods.
In his April Budget, Mr Darling forecast a 1.6 per cent contraction in the UK economy during the first three months of the year.
Last week, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, a respected European think-tank, forecast that the UK economy would shrink by 4.3 per cent this year.
It said that there would be zero growth next year.
The OECD is also predicting that UK unemployment will top 3 million over the next 12 months, in a further blow to Mr Darling's optimism about a recovery.
The ONS said today that, year on year, GDP had fallen 4.9 per cent, the biggest drop on record. It had previously estimated a fall of 4.1 per cent.
The revised figures sent sterling down to around $1.6605 against the dollar, paring back the morning's previous gains.
Articles from our sister site WSJ.com:
You may be asked to subscribe to read certain articles
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports
We are backing British business, what is the confidence of the nation and what businesses are succeeding?
Growing demand for energy, oil that is harder to reach and the rise of carbon dioxide emissions. We examine the energy challenge
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
36-month car lease
on contract hire for
£359.99 plus VAT pm
12 months for the price of 11 and a 5% discount.
Offer ends 31/11/09
The UK's leading alternative to showroom finance.
Finance packages tailored to your needs.
Minimum loan of £15,000
Car Insurance
£12,578 per annum
The Independent Housing Ombudsman
London
Competitive
Barclaycard
Not Specified
The Sheppard Trust
London
£80-95,000
Clay McGuire Executive Selection
Moments from Battersea Park.
For sale with Winkworth.
See your free Experian credit report beforehand
Book now & save over £100pp.
11 cool resorts, lowest prices... Early Booking offers 15 Nov.
20% off selected Azores holidays taken in October with Sunvil Discovery
Get covered on your travels with a superb range of policies at great prices. Visit InsureandGo.com
World Class Golf, Spa and preferential Beach Club. Private estate overlooking West Coast
Villas from £275 per night inclusive of Golf
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.