Elizabeth Judge
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The Bank Of England is sceptical about the so-called "recovery" in the economy it emerged today as minutes of its June meeting showed it was united on a decision to keep rates on hold.
Minutes from the Bank's meeting two weeks ago revealed the nine-member monetary policy committee unaminously voted to keep rates at their historic low of 0.5 per cent.
The Bank conceded that there had been "positive developments" in the economy over the month and that "the risk of a continued sharp contraction in output in the near term had receded."
However, it indicated that a spate of more upbeat recent economic data about the services, industrial and housing sectors gave less reason for optimism than business groups and commentators have suggested.
"Even if developments over the month had been positive, the increase in confidence apparent in some financial market indicators and some household and corporate sector surveys remained fragile," the minutes said.
"There was no reason to conclude that the medium-term outlook for the economy and thus inflation has changed materially since the Inflation Report had been finalised."
Last week, the pound surged to its highest overall levels this year as hopes that the British economy is emerging from recession continued to burgeon.
Data also showed the first rise in industrial production for 14 months. Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures showed that industrial output in April rose 0.3 per cent from March — the first rise since February 2008. Analysts had forecast a fall of 0.1 per cent.
Earlier this month, hopes that the recession has bottomed out were also bolstered by a new survey suggested that the services sector, the engine room of the economy, grew in May, for the first time in more than a year.
The headline reading in the CIPS/Markit monthly barometer of services climbed to 51.7 for last month, from 48.7 in April, in a sixth consecutive rise that took it back above the key 50 mark that signals renewed expansion, and to the best level since April 2008.
The City had questioned whether, with a spate of indications that the recession has hit bottom, the Bank could call a halt to any further "printing" of money. However no arguments were advanced either for upping the Bank's £125 billion quantitative easing programme - in which it pumps newly created money into the economy or scaling it back.
Vicky Redwood, UK economist at Capital Economics, said the minutes sounded a "slightly more upbeat tone than recent speeches by individual members."
However, she added, there is "nothing to suggest that the Committee has significantly changed its previous view about the growth and inflation outlook."
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