Michael Binyon
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When King Abdullah II opens the regional meeting of the World Economic Forum beside the Dead Sea today, he will make much of his small country’s extraordinary resilience.
Jordan, he told The Times last weekend, is one of the two countries least affected by the global downturn, according to a recent survey. The economy is still robust, the currency has risen in value, foreign currency reserves have grown and Jordan has not had to take any special measures or cut interest rates to stimulate growth. His country is well placed to urge businessmen from across the Middle East, including Israel, to hold their nerve and boost trade with each other.
But it is not simply prudent management and conservative policies that have averted any banking collapse and financial meltdown. Jordan, one of the few Middle East countries with no oil and long one of the poorest in the region, now finds itself on the brink of a potential economic bonanza. It has discovered uranium in huge quantities. Multinational companies are queueing up to start mining operations. Jordan is proposing to build a nuclear reactor and save almost 20 per cent of its gross domestic product now spent on importing fossil fuels. The small desert kingdom is set to lead the way in nuclear power production, opening its first nuclear plant in six years’ time and eventually exporting energy to all its neighbours.
This new source of energy will be used to supply the one critical resource that Jordan lacks: water. With one of the fastest-growing populations in the world – currently some six million people, four times the number a generation ago – and a vast influx of refugees from Iraq, the country is rapidly running out of water. Nuclear energy will allow it to undertake new desalination schemes and reduce dependence on meagre winter rainfall.
At the same time, Jordan is proposing a slew of mega-projects to take advantage of a young, well-educated workforce and a stable economy. There are plans to rebuild the antiquated Hejaz railway, to step up intensive agriculture and to create new industrial zones in the north and the south to stop Amman sucking all the population into one vast metropolis.
The biggest of all these projects, however, is something that proposes, literally, to change the landscape: the Red-Dead Canal. This scheme aims at building a canal, tunnels and pipeline from the Gulf of Aqaba, going 110 miles over the mountains to the north and then falling precipitately down into the Dead Sea, some 400 metres below sea level. The scheme would not only pump 1.9 billion cubic metres of water into the salty Dead Sea, now shrinking alarmingly and falling at the rate of a metre a year; it would also generate a huge amount of hyrdo-electricity, which would power desalination plants. The Red Sea water, cleaned and purified, could then be used for agriculture and to relieve Jordan’s desperately thirsty cities.
This scheme has been discussed in conjunction with Israel for years. But Jordan has become impatient. The political tensions that hamper cooperation between Jordanians, Israelis and Palestinians have blocked any real moves to get the project started. So Amman has decided to go it alone. The scheme will cost at least $5 billion and will take 20 years to build. But it will provide up to 850 million cubic metres of desalinated water a year for a country with a water deficit already exceeding 500 million cubic metres a year. The nuclear project is likely to begin first. Two years ago, Jordan’s energy minister announced that uranium deposits were estimated at 80,000 tonnes – with an additional 100,000 tonnes contained among the country’s phosphate reserves. Jordan now accounts for 2 per cent of the world’s uranium reserves.
The discovery prompted a swift revision of energy strategy. Jordan, encouraged by the Americans and the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA) to show the Arab world how a responsible civilian nuclear power industry could be managed, is moving fast to begin exploitation of its uranium and construction of its first nuclear plant. By 2030, nuclear energy will supply a third of its electricity – allowing Jordan to cut the huge bill for oil and gas imports, which account for 95 per cent of its requirements.
A newly created Higher Committee for Nuclear Strategy has begun a series of talks about finance, construction, foreign involvement and loans. The King has taken a close, personal interest. Jordan has invited Kazakhstan to assist in mining the uranium, and a feasibility study was commissioned with the IAEA.
The West has not been slow to show interest. In February Rio Tinto, the Anglo-Australian mining group, signed an 18-month deal to explore for uranium, thorium and zirconium. France, the leading European user of nuclear energy, has also shown interest, proposing to mine the uranium in exchange for help and know-how in building Jordan’s first reactor.
“For the first time in our history we are sitting on a commodity that people are interested in,” King Abdullah told The Times. “A lot of countries are knocking on our door.”
Ironically, the global downturn may help Jordan to make a start on these mega-projects. Some 10 per cent of Jordanians work in the Gulf, where the downturn is having a severe effect. Thousands of skilled workers are returning home. Their remittances are drying up but their labour will be available. Construction in much of the Middle East has stalled, so big firms are looking for alternatives.
Jordan has begun to feel the pinch in some important fields, such as tourism, but knows that it has an opportunity to restructure its economy. And the King seems determined to take advantage of this unsually favourable climate. His government will be active at the World Economic Forum in promoting Jordan’s future and trying to persuade neighbours to bolster mutual trade and investment. And as disillusion sets in over the breakneck development in the Gulf, many Arab eyes will be turning to Jordan. It could be that the little desert kingdom’s hour has come.
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