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MarketWatch: US trade deficit contracts
Britain’s trade deficit rose to a record level in November as a slump in sales of to the US dashed hopes that the weak pound would help protect exporters from the full effects of the global economic downturn.
The trade gap, which occurs when the sum of goods and financial services imported into the country is bigger than those it exports, widened from £7.6 billion in October to £8.3 billion in November as export earnings fell by 6 per cent to £19.8 billion over the month.
Sales to the US dropped by 21 per cent while exports to Japan fell by 11 per cent. The goods trade gap with non-European Union countries also hit a record, growing from £4.4 billion to £5.3 billion, above expectations of £4.25 billion.
Today's figure is far above the £7.5 billion trade gap analysts had been expecting for November and prompted an immediate fall in the value of sterling, which hit almost $1.46 after the Office of National Statistics published its report.
The gap would have been even worse but for a fall in the value of imports, which were dragged down by slowing domestic demand. UK imports of traded goods, excluding oil, fell by 1.8 per cent in November, the fourth successive monthly decline.
The figures come just days after dismal reports from manufacturers showing that factory output fell at the fastest rate in 28 years in December, heightening fears that the recession is set to be sharper than anticipated and the Tories said they cast doubt on the Prime Minister's forecast that Britain should start to climb out of recession later this year.
"The fact that this is the worst statistic on record gives serious cause for alarm. Along with the collapsed pound, this deficit shows the reality of Britain’s plight," Alan Duncan, the Shadow Business Secretary, said.
"With firms unable to sell their products abroad, Gordon Brown’s claims of a rapid recovery are exposed as hopelessly optimistic. The truth is that ten years of economic mismanagement has left our economy completely unprepared to deal with the downturn, and a clear route out of the pain seems a long way off."
Economists said that although withering exports could be offset by falling imports, it would not be enough to curb a sharp slowdown this year.
Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics, said: "One thing is for sure, the UK can't rely on the global economy or the fall in the pound to drag it out of its deepest recession since the early 1980s."
The British Chambers of Commerce said today that it expected GDP to have fallen by 1.2 per cent in the last three months of 2008, marking the second consecutive quarterly fall in output and confirming that the country is officially in recession.
Some economists expect GDP to fall by even more, dipping by as much as 1.5 per cent over the quarter. Official GDP figures will be published next week.
Howard Acher, chief UK and European economist for IHS Global Insight, said: "Imports will be limited by sharply contracting UK domestic demand and the reduced competitiveness of foreign companies due to the markedly weaker pound, so net trade could yet make a modest positive contribution to GDP in 2009.
"However, this will clearly not be enough to prevent UK GDP contracting very sharply this year."
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The fact of the matter seems to be that the British economy is largely services-based i.e. manufacturing of value-added goods is quite limited compared to, for instance, Germany. A lousy education system does, and will not deliver the competitive edge so urgently required to pull out of this mess.
Pete, Geneva, Switzerland
Down here at Southampton a friend of mine hauls containers of mostly Primark stock up North. He then runs back with empty containers as nobody has anything to fill them with for export. That is the real world Mr Brown. The real world being a place that none of your cabinet has ever experienced.
Pedro, Marchwood, UK
The weak pound will only make this worse, as we import more. hence its a trade deficit.
yes we our exports may be cheaper but we need to import to live in the UK.
andy, winchester,
So now I go to the Bank to get credit and spend spend spend on products from abroad.
Is this what the Government and the Financial experts want.
Sid Jacques, Durham, England
People will adapt as in the War- they have no choice and those who led us into this fraudulent mess should be punished. Labout will lose by the biggest majority ever once Cameron or his replacement decides to stop emulating Blair.
Bring on Ken Clarke if nothing else. He's the last of the old school
j bentley, Brighton, UK
Why is everyone blaming this on the decline of the UK manufacturing industry? The measure includes services also, i.e. banking.
Richard Ashworth, Chelmsford, UK
Whilst in theory weaker Sterling should help exporters, it adds to manufacturers woes when they have to source Dollar or Euro based raw materials, the price of imported goods is pushed higher, a fact often ignored in recent government and media analysis.
Dee Radley, Colchester, UK
Raise Interest rates; lower business taxes lower government spending. The only long term solution; else it's back to the seventies.
Paul John Graham, Greenwich, UK
Lets follow the socialist model- don't earn or create wealth, but make your money by taxing the earnings of others - lets annexe a country who deliver things and Brown can then tax them until they squeak whilst borrowing more on the back of their future earnings - like he did with the us in the UK
Derek, Cowes, UK
dead right, Steve McCarthy, Birmingham, W Midlands and Brown and Bliar took to Thatcherism like ducks to water
peter c, Devizes, Wessex
Some time ago a Lady phoned and asked if I would do a survey for the DTI. First Question What do you do Manufacturer Lady Whats that? We make things -Pause- Lady Cant you call it something else its not on my list Really sums up Labours attitude.
Michael Wood, London, U K
I'm no fan of labour but I must point out that Margaret Thatcher started this trend of moving away from manufacturing to the service industry. A lot of people for a long time have been saying we are too reliant on banking for income but have largely been ignored. Perhaps we will learn this time.
Steve McCarthy, Birmingham, W Midlands
whats all the fuss about. Gordon rekons that when he switches the printing press on things will soon get back to normal. trouble is Gord the press has been on for about 11 years now so more of the same is not the answer
dave jones, chesterfield, uk
Now that an opportunity has arrisen to export, there are hardly any goods to send as manufacturers have been regulated out of existance. RIP British industry!
Richard Palmer, Bath, Somerset
I have been stating this was going to happen in all my post. The slashing of the rates slahed the pound with no help to exports as is very little to export and nobody to buy . The weak pound as the UK is a net imporer of food has caused the gap.
NICHOLAS Bsc Economics, Larnaca, Cyprus
How can exports increase? We hardly export anything. In the past few years all we have exports is false numbers in the money markets. Also the EU figures show we don't need to be in the EU. They need us more than we need them.
rob, ashbourne, uk
So the low £ does not really make our exports skyrocket? O dear! Another way to close the gap might be to abolish imports. I bet that's what the government is going for - they have a natural talent for always choosing the most disadvantageous solution to a problem.
Morgan, Bristol, United Kingdom
This is a result of a national economy which has been based on consumer debt and selling ever overpriced houses to each other.
David, London,
This feels like the 70s all over again again. "Balance of payments deficit," "Sterling crisis" - what next? The IMF!?
Andrew, St. Ives, Cambridgeshire,
the more this labour gov borrows the lower the pound will go down against the dollar and the euro and other currencies,and because britain imports billions of pounds worth of goods each year and imports are paid for mainly by the dollar,we here in britain can exspect huge price increases on imports.
thomas, wallasey, uk
adrian murray, I think we understand and are more than ready to make that (not so) tough choice, to remove this pathetic government.
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
we in britain do not make anything worth exporting these days,so why should other countries buy of us when times are bad,a falling pound wont help the british economy it will only make things worse ,through more expensive imports.
thomas, wallasey, uk
The depreciation of the pound is doing nothing to increase exports of British goods to Thailand.
British goods such as Weetabix cost exactly the same in local currency as they did last year. What is happening is that the importers are enjoying a massive windfall at the expense of the UK economy
dave smith, bangkok, thailand
All due to Labour. Thanks to endless crucifying rules and regulations who would want to make anything in this country or employ people if it can be done elsewhere?
peter wallis, london, uk
New Labour's legacy.
Andrew Brown, derby, uk
we're doomed... we don't make anything special other countries want to buy... and the entire "boom" was fueled by people extracting "equity" out of ridiculously overvalued houses
paul cooke, gloucester uk,
These figures are just appaling, yet their magnitude is frankly unsurprising.
This country needs to start manufacturing again.
We cannot continue to import the vast majority of our requirements.
Why can't the Government see this?
david cooper, aylesbury, uk
This hardly comes as a surprise. After all, the current government has fostered financial services at the expense of manufacturing.
You can't imagine anyone buying our financial acumen now, can you?
Ian Tinn, Slough, UK
All the chickens are now coming home to roost. No country can forever live above its means and no government can forever hide the facts while conducting a popularity contest masquerading as democracy.The sooner the electorate understand this and are allowed to make the tough choice the better.
adrian murray, Sydney, Australia