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One of the world's leading economists has given warning that the United States is facing a decade of financial misery, with the number of unemployed Americans set to continue to rise for years.
Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University, who predicted the end of the internet bubble seven years ago, said: “We could have many years of a very weak economy. Big recessions are followed by years of weakness and typically unemployment keeps rising.
“To say that this will last years is not a dramatic statement. What is happening now is much worse than 1990. We could be facing a decade of real weakness.
“This is no ordinary recession. There are signs that people see this as a different story. People are talking about a depression, something that we haven't seen previously.”
Professor Shiller's comments come as the unemployment rate in America is rising astonishingly fast.
Last week official figures showed that the US lost 524,000 jobs in December, with the overall unemployment rate rising to 7.2 per cent — the highest level for 16 years.
With about 11.1 million people out of a job, the total number of unemployed is about 50 per cent higher than a year ago.
Some economists, such as Kenneth Rogoff, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and now a Professor of Economics at Harvard University, believe that America will be lucky if unemployment peaks at 9 per cent of the workforce and that there is a high chance that it will reach at least 10 per cent.
Professor Shiller, who said that he has talked to the incoming Obama Administration about possible solutions to the housing crisis in the US, took a swipe at the Federal Reserve.
He said: “This recession is by no means mechanical. People have lost a sense of confidence, a sense of trust in institutions and in each other. It is very hard for a central bank to address that by just cutting interest rates.”
Professor Shiller, who has recently published The Subprime Solution — How Today's Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do About It, also warned that plans to try to limit foreclosures had met with resistance from those who felt “they had paid their mortgages, they had done everything right, but that they are now being taxed for those who did not”.
The housing market in the United States is widely seen as one of the main causes of its economic troubles.
Spurred by low interest rates and initiatives to promote home ownership, residential real estate boomed for a decade.
Professor Shiller, who co-founded the authoritative S&P Case/Shiller home price index, was one of the first to predict that the housing market would slump and that this could bring down financial institutions.
He said: “So far the Government isn't doing much. [President-elect Barack] Obama has not made any announcement. They do not have anything going. I would have thought that Obama would be receptive [to a rescue plan to stem the rate of foreclosures].”
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"...net savers should not be punished.."
The coming wave of double didgit inflation will punish all savers and all bond or fixed interest income peole too.
As the a lost decade - if the US starts to understand that this is not a bunkruptcy dodging exercise - then 10 to 15 years is possible. If not?
dhome, sydney, australia
Mr. Buffet warned us 10 years ago about the derivatives market and the so called creative accounting practices of financial institutions. The housing fallout is just a symptom of a very large problem that is slowly unraveling. This isn't a recession, it is a correction.
Max, Honolulu,
Home values alone did not distroyed my disposalable income, rather it was $4.00 per gallon gasoline. What was costing my partner and I around $240 every month for our commmute to and from work would peaked at $610. That was money the two of us did not have for dining out, entertainment, or extras.
Jeffrey, Louisville, KY, USA
If the L shaped outcome Prof Shiller discusses is realized it will be exceedingly difficult to extract the stimulus that has been injected. At some point political leaders will need to raise revenues to retire the high levels of debt that are being amassed. I am ever more doubtful they will do so.
Paul , Memphis, USA
Taxation to solve other people's errors sucks, but it's better than economic ruin, which is the only other likely option."
Housing prices need to fall fast and get it over with. Don't raise taxes. They need to drop. There are other options. Learn some economics.
Billy, Austin, USA
It actually does matter what caused the financial crisis. Finding solutions and ironing out the causes must be done concurently. If not, then we will never learn. Busts like this are good because they force people to learn. The innocents that loose jobs is what makes this such a bad thing.
Antwone, Perth,
In their book, The Great Reckoning, James Dale Davidson & Lord William Rees-Mogg discuss many cyclical issues that occur in boom & bust markets. They showed that commodity bull markets such as oil were followed by depressions in the UK and in the USA. There is no quick fix.
Kevin, Sterling, USA
It doesn't matter who caused a financial crisis. It's a crisis. Withholding the resources to solve it will just make it worse for everyone, whether you caused the crisis or not. Taxation to solve other people's errors sucks, but it's better than economic ruin, which is the only other likely option.
Michael, Kearns,
This isn't just about jobs, it's about real jobs that pay the bills.
Within two months in Mr. Barack Obama state of IL, two 3 friends and my brother lost their jobs. We are not talking about 10 dollars an hour jobs. We are talking about 50 to 75K a year jobs being lost. Far more than reported.
rjs, IL, USA
Obama is just going to be 'more of the same' nonsense that we had from George Bush.
William Kent, Brandon, Canada
Speed up the fall in house prices, e.g. 50%, then new home owners will have more disposable income.
E.g. instead of paying a mortgage of $2,000 a month, falling to $1,000, will give a new home owner $12,000 a year in additional disposable income.
People are abeleto learn from their mistakes.
Hugo van Randwyck, London, UK
those of us who didn't borrow too much and paid our bills on time and who are now net savers should not be punished for the profligacy of others who ought to have known better.
A Stewart, Wellington, New Zealand
Ed,
how about some narrative on all those charts, for the ordinary person? Looks like you've done some really deep analysis, but need to do more to tell us what the lessons are.
Maggie, Stamford, UK
As the proper basis for doing the best we can for the future, let's tell the truth about how we got here.
"Hidden or Not: Serial Herd Behavior IS Our Track Record" at
http://durangoguardian.com/Opinion/TalkBack/TBHiddenOrNot010809.htm
Ed Hamilton, DurangoColorado, USA