David Wighton, Business and City Editor
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The Bank of England rather missed the point yesterday. Not because it cut base rates to 1.5 per cent, instead of the 1 per cent many pundits had expected, but because lowering interest rates will do little to revive the flagging economy.
Rates have already been slashed from 4.5 per cent to 2 per cent in the past two months and the economy has continued to weaken at an alarming pace.
Britain is not alone. The Americans cut rates earlier and deeper than the Bank of England without slowing their economy's decline. Rates in the US are already effectively zero but Barack Obama warned yesterday that America could remain in recession for years without a massive package of tax cuts and government spending.
Both economies are suffering from the same problem - a lack of credit. People want to borrow to buy homes and companies want to borrow to fund their businesses. But the banks can't or won't lend.
As Justin King, the chief executive of Sainsbury, said yesterday, it is not how much you have to pay to borrow that is the issue, it is that there is no money being lent in the first place.
The cut in base rates will have at least some impact on the economy. Millions of mortgage borrowers will see their monthly bills fall and some of this should feed through into higher spending.
The effect will be partly offset by the impact on savers, who will see the meagre returns on their money shrink even further. The many companies, particularly small businesses, whose overdrafts and loans are linked to base rates, will also benefit.
Many economists believe that cutting rates also has an effect on confidence that is hard to measure. It shows that the authorities are at least doing something. This may partly explain why the Bank decided to cut by only half of one percentage point rather than the full point. It is highly likely that they will cut again soon. So why not just get on with it, ask the critics. However, members of the Monetary Policy Committee may have thought it would be better to keep some ammunition back.
After all, with rates this low they have little conventional firepower left.
Another reason for their caution may have been concern over sterling. The pound has fallen sharply in the last few months, which should stimulate the economy by helping exporters. But the Bank would not want to see the fall turn into a rout.
If rate cuts are largely beside the point, what is the answer? Almost certainly more taxpayers' money. Although the Government has ploughed billions into the banks already, it may have to put in more. So far it has invested a sum equivalent to 2.5 per cent of economic output. In previous banking crises, governments have had to fork out four times as much.
Yesterday Gordon Brown promised further measures to get the banks lending again. These could include extending the guarantees offered for bank borrowing or providing state backing for bank lending.
Mr Brown is also under pressure to provide further help to the economy through tax cuts and increased spending.
Most economists and business leaders believe the impact of the recent cut in VAT has been as disappointing as the effect of the interest rate cuts. The measures announced by the Government so far amount to at most 2 per cent of economic output. The package Mr Obama is talking is nearer 6 per cent of the American economy.
If Big Government is the answer, we will be paying the bills for many years to come.
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The governement is charging banks 12% interest for the money it put in so how can it expect banks to loan money at low rates. In 1997 British pople saved 10% of their income. Under Brown this has reduced below 1% so the money is not there. US and UK lives beyond it means! Fact.
Edward Ball, London, UK
If rates are virtually useless now, why are we punishing savers??
Richard, Alicante, Spain
All this lowering rates makes no difference stuff is nonsense. 25% of mortgages are trackers. Every cut puts cash straight into our pockets.
Gareth, London,
The VAT cut was ridiculously irrelevant and should be reversed. NI should be temporarily reduced, personal tax starting level should be raised. Stamp duty reduced and smoothed (or even forgone altogether for say 18 months). Brown should admit government is living beyond the means of the economy.
David Raynes, Bath, UK
the interest rate cuts have probably done more harm than good. if people have no insentive to save, where will the banks get money from to lend, especially given the prohibive rates of interest they are forced to pay the government for their bailout
massive corporation tax cuts the only course.
will, grimsby, uk
You seem to be missing the point.From the retailers reports that I have seen there have been more winners than losers,ok they have needed to cut margins but it is clear that these have been just too high in the UK
Contrast these to news from USA & you can see that GB is setting the pace,face facts
Bob Greenaway , Tamarin, Mauritius
"Both economies are suffering from the same problem - a lack of credit."
or you could put it another way.
Both economies are suffering from the same problem - too much debt.
AndyN, Reading,
Banks lend money that gets repaid. Correct - except the banks forgot the repaid part. They lent to those who can't repay and never could repay. Keeping debt ticking over on minimum payments isn't enough. Now we return to normal lending everyone squeals as the lid is replaced on the cookie jar.
Bart, Blackwood, uk
Authorities are losing the battle as the trillions of £'s/dollars the bankers invented during the boom years comes home to roost.. Printing money is now inevitable with runaway inflation, this could easily lead to acute stagflation on a severe scale..
J Hunt, Hertford,
Banks are supposed to lend money that gets repaid. In the current recession, they're not lending because the risk of non-payment and bad debts is higher. They can't pass on all of the rate cuts because the interest rate that the government is charging for their cash injection is around 14%.
John, Ilkley,
What a shambles Interest rates 1.5% - profligate spenders and self certificated mortgage holders are cosseted by the total stupidity of the Banking Network who lent money that was not there in the first place. Bank lending always used to be based on the assets of the bank, Savers monies on deposits.
graham o'neill, manchester, uk
The govt would have been better off not slashing VAT but rather investing the difference as either a credit pool to banks, or, preferably, by lending deposits to potential homebuyers at a negligible interest rate and taking a second call mortgage to the commercial bank lending the balance.....
Charles, London, UK
why dont the state banks "northen rock" just start lending rather than wasteing 700 billion by putting it into banks that wont lend put 700 billion in to the rock and have it lend to us all.
Have it flood the market with good deals and loans for people and small biz, but not banks or big biz.
MR Jones, Liverpool, England
mortgages arent all that cheap as lenders havent been passing on the full base rate cuts check out moneysupermarket to see who the worst offenders are So whose pocketing the difference the bank fat cat no doubt so no change there. So more tax payers money wasted in propping up the banks
andy, sheffield, yorks