Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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The Bank of England today ordered another half-point cut in interest rates to just 1.5 per cent, the lowest in 314 years, as it kept up its aggressive campaign to breathe life into the stalled economy.
The Bank’s further move came hard on the heels of cuts of 2.5 percentage points over the past two months alone.
But the move will disappoint struggling businesses and fearful workers and consumers, who were hoping for a more radical cut by another full percentage point or more.
The latest cut came amid soaring fears over Britain’s rapidly worsening prospects following a deluge of dire economic news and a mounting toll of job losses.
Warnings have been voiced in recent days that the economy will suffer its worst year since 1946 and shrink by more than 2.5 per cent over 2009.
In its statement today, the Bank warned that the pace of contraction in the economy during the past quarter would prove more severe than the already steep 0.5 per cent decline suffered in the previous three months, and that "output is likely to continue to fall sharply during the first part of the year".
In a bleak assessment, the Bank also highlighted signs that consumer spending was faltering, and a worsening outlook for business investment and housebuilding, as well as the continued lending drought facing both household and corporate borrowers. It again emphasised that "further measures" were likely to be needed to boost the flow of lending.
The Bank's gloomy analysis came after Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, yesterday admitted that Britain was “far from through” the recession. He conceded that his forecast for the economy to shrink by no more than 1.25 per cent in 2009 was likely to prove too optimistic.
“This year is going to difficult. There are going to be some tough calls,” the Chancellor said.
Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, is also to warn today that the greater danger to the outlook comes not from inflation but from deflation — sustained falls in prices that would suck the lifeblood of demand out of the economy.
With anxieties growing that interest rates are proving ineffective in combating the deepening recession, the Treasury and Bank of England are examining ground-breaking measures to rekindle growth.
Moves being considered range from a strategy of “quantitative easing”, involving US-style moves to buy-up debt from banks to increase the flow of commercial lending and cut its cost, to a second recapitalisation of the banking system that could see billions more injected into leading high street banks.
With interest rates already at unprecedented lows, and tipped to fall to zero, or close to it, within a few months, a key worry for officials is that the Bank is running out of firepower, making the need for alternative weapons more pressing.
That concern may have been one factor that persuaded the Bank’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee to conserve some of its rates ammunition for later in the year.
The noon verdict from the MPC that rates should be reduced by a half-point came after a fresh spate of job losses and company collapses across the nation.
With consumer spending faltering, Marks & Spencer confirmed that it is axing 1,200 jobs and closing 27 stores. Another 1,000 jobs are under threat at Cattle’s, a finance company, while Barclays is cutting 400 IT jobs. Viyella, the fashion business, also collapsed into administration this week putting more jobs in jeopardy.
City economists predict that unemployment, which is already rising at the faster than in the early Nineties recession, is set to top three million on the Government’s Labour Force Survey figures before the end of the year.
Meanwhile, Treasury chief Alistair Darling moved to quash speculation that the government was planning to print money to ease the impact of recession after he told the Financial Times in an interview published Wednesday that he was considering a policy of “quantitative easing.”
“Nobody is talking about printing money,” he told reporters after a Cabinet meeting on Thursday. “There’s a debate to be had about what you do to support the economy as interest rates approach zero, as they are in the United States. But for us that is an entirely hypothetical debate."
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Solution. Toxic Bank created to relieve banking system of toxic assets at par backed by Govt Guarantees. Confidence then restored to Banking system to enable lending to resume.Printed money to be used only if guarantees called in. Unfortunately it Maybe to complicated for Brown & co to comprehend.
Marios, Birmingham, UK
We all know that Brown cannot, will not or refuses to make a decision or perhaps he does not even know a solution that will be electorally favourably. I am afraid it will be too late before anything that works is done. In the meantime whilst he is pondering we all live in a state of utter dis pare.
Rick, Walsall, UK
Deflation, is now here. Contagion from the housing market collapse is spreading at an ever alarming rate. Liquidity must be restored and Brown must stop dithering & make a decision NOW to print & replace vanished money as advocated in some of your readers comments, & ,before it is too late.
John Wilson, Birmingham, UK
To all rational people, it is obvious that if a 3.5 % drop in interest rates has not been effective then another .5% will not help. It is also obvious that the individuals who created the problem still make out that they have the solution, of course they do not. Standby for another market collapse.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia
Steady on, you lot agreeing with Mandelson and suggesting that they print to replace vanished money. If Brown gets wind of this he may well do it (and, if it works) he may well go on to win the next election. God forbid !!
Ernie, Mijas, Spain
Time to use the remainder of my savings to pay off all my student loans. No point in saving money now as inflation will just wipe it out!
Lee, London,
Why have I ever bothered to save? I should have done what other I know have done, spend spend spend and reap all the rewards Mr Brown is throwing at the feckless!
Mark, London,
Rick, Walsall. Yes and Brown would then say he has not printed more money, he has simply replaced replaced it. If your "proposal" works then Brown would go on to say that he really has "saved the World" God help us all.
Pauline, Acocks Green, UK
This is a total farce. The Banks and the Government have spirited away or taken all our money - how can they expect us to spend what they have already taken.
Increase interest rates and tax bands thus giving us some money to spend.
P Barrett, Plymouth, England
Rick, Walsall, Yes you are also right. If Global Central Banks were able to quantify the money which has vanished and replace it by printing it, the status qua would be restored. Problem solved?
Nik, Birmingham, UK
Nic - Bahrain
Spending on what?
On things I don't want with what money I have that I'll need to pay the mortgage if my job goes?
Or maybe I should use a credit card and rack up massive debts then forget about having to pay them back?
Borrowing/spending got us into this, more of the same?
Guy, London, UK
Yes, Mandelson is right to say that the real danger now is deflation, not inflation. Liquidity must be restored as a matter of utmost urgency by printing it. This will simply replace the money which hitherto vanished down the big" black hole" and consequently imposes no immediate inflationary risks,
Rick, Walsall, UK
Lower interest rates = lower returns on savings = lower disposable incomes for savers = less spending by the very people who could otherwise afford to.
The recession will now get deeper and longer.
Paul, Coventry,
We are now at the point where further reductions in interest rates is a pointless exercise. These reductions are only truly effective if passed on by banks (which isn't happening!) all that further reductions will do is deter investment and destabalise the pound!
Iain, Glasgow,
People don't seem to get the full point of rate cuts - not only are they designed to promote borrowing, but probably more importantly they are designed to stop saving! The last thing the economy needs now is people hoarding money and putting more and more people out of work! Start spending people!!
Nic, Manama, Bahrain
When benefits fall, unemployment reaches 5 million and former middle class people are living on the streets the Government will need special secure compounds for it's employees and their families to live. The elite civil servants will need protection from the masses. As in East Germany 1949 - 90.
Francis Cousins, Wrington, UK
Savers appear to outnumber borrowers by 7 to 1. Ok reducing interest rates wil save some borrowers money each month but it is getting to the point where savers will begin to tighten their belts as very little interest will be added to their accounts. Cutting interest rates any further could backfire
Ron, Dunfermline, uk
Yet more support for the profligate, and another blow for the prudent. I have saved all my life for a comfortable, if modest retirement, if I cold not afford something I did not buy it. My income from savings is now almost zero. Well done Mr. Brown
gordon Clifford, denia, spain
Interest rates are irrelevant if there is no money to be lent. Stimulate the economy by increasing money flow.
Kevin Beach, Crawley, England
Well, I am going to move some of my savings to South African Savings account where I can get a minimum of 7.6% up to 12%. It will be as safe there if not safer there as it is here in UK.
Louis, Liverpool, UK