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From The Times
December 22, 2008

Crunch ‘to hasten rise of China to No 1 spot’

Robert Lindsay

The credit crunch will ensure that China becomes the world’s largest economy within a decade, up to 11 years earlier than previously expected, it is forecast today.

As the developed world grinds close to a halt, China will become the biggest economy, excluding currency fluctuations, by 2019, according to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club. Previous forecasts had predicted that China would not reach this point till 2025-2030.

Brazil, Russia, India and China, the “Bric” nations, will account for 40 per cent of global economic growth between next year and 2020, according to ITEM. Of this, China will account for a quarter.

Although economic activity in Britain, Europe and the United States is forecast to slow, or shrink in some cases, China’s growth is not tipped to go below 6 per cent a year, implying quicker catching up with the US.

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