Consumers expect to cut their spending on Christmas presents sharply this year, down to only just above the levels of three years ago, according to a poll for The Times.

The Populus poll, conducted during December 5-7, will reinforce the gloomy message coming from the high street as big retailers slash prices and some face collapse. On average, adults expect to spend almost £359 on presents this year, nearly £35 less than a year ago – a decline of 8.8 per cent. Expected spending is only just over £3 higher than in December 2005. Even though prices have been cut sharply, this points to a big cutback.

Similar polls have been accurate predictors of the pattern of the Christmas season for retailers. However, because the poll is about expectations, and carried out more than two and a half weeks before Christmas Day, the overall trends are more significant than the precise cash figures.

The poll is best read as an indicator of consumer confidence, and the message is pretty bleak. The Populus poll highlights big variations between different groups.

Women are planning to cut their spending by more than men: by nearly 11 per cent compared with a year ago, against 6.6 per cent for men. On a three-year comparison, men are still expecting to spend more (£29 extra) than in December 2005, while women are expecting to spend more than £18 less than they did then.

The proportion of people expecting to spend more than £500 on presents has fallen from 28 to 22 per cent over the past year. More than a quarter of professionals and managers (27 per cent) expect to spend more than £500 but this group plans to spend nearly £36 less than last year, at £404. This is almost £7 less than in December 2005.

The biggest spenders are skilled manual workers, at £408, who plan to buy nearly £9 more in presents than last year. Unskilled manual workers intend to spend £278, a drop of £41 compared with a year ago, and a fall of nearly 50p against three years ago.

Regionally, the biggest cutbacks are among those living in Scotland, Wales and the South West, who are expecting to spend a quarter less than a year ago. However, consumers in the South East are planning to spend nearly £44 more than a year ago, at £353, a rise of 14 per cent.

Although these figures have to be treated with caution because of the small numbers questioned, long-term comparisons are positive in the South East. Spending there is expected to be nearly £55 higher than three years ago, compared with declines of £44 in Scotland and nearly £32 in Wales.

There have been sharp fluctuations from December to December among different age groups. The poll only includes people aged over 18. The 18-24 group emerges as the expected strongest spenders against a year ago and, at an expected £351, this represents the biggest rise compared with December 2005. The plus £68 among those aged 18 to 24 since late 2005 compares with minus £36 among people aged over 65. The oldest group are the lowest overall spenders, at £231, and the biggest spenders are those aged 35 to 54 – the groups with the most children. Those aged 35 to 44 expect to spend an average of £459 this Christmas, more than £30 less than a year ago.

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