Gary Duncan, Economics Editor, and Philip Webster, Political Editor
Enter our Snapshots of Summer photography competition
Alistair Darling’s hopes that growth would resume in the second half of next year were hit yesterday by predictions that the recession could turn into a slump worse than that of the early 1980s.
Experts said that the economy would shrink by 1 per cent or more this winter as it emerged that British industry is contracting at the fastest pace since 1991.
Output from factories, power stations, mines and the North Sea plummeted in October by 1.7 per cent, leaving it 5.2 per cent down from levels a year earlier.
The speed at which the economy is shrinking has doubled to at least 1 per cent in the past three months, from an already severe 0.5 per cent officially reported for the third quarter, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
The figures increased expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by a further full point to an unprecedented low of 1 per cent next month. A base rate of zero, or close to it, is no longer seen as improbable or even unlikely.
The latest grim economic news came as the political divide over the recession widened sharply, with David Cameron announcing that he would not match Labour’s new spending plans for 2010 and beyond, as set out in the Pre-Budget Report. The Tory leader was accused by Mr Darling of unbelievable complacency after saying that he would make further savings in the Government’s revised spending plans and would go beyond the £5 billion in extra efficiency savings announced then.
Mr Cameron blamed the need for lower spending on “the mess Labour have made”. He said that the Tories had spent the fortnight since the Pre-Budget Report studying the Government’s figures and cited concerns about assumed future tax revenues. “To pay for Labour’s spending would mean substantial tax rises over and above those that the Chancellor actually told us about,” he said. “If we are to avoid substantial tax rises in the future — tax rises that will hamper the recovery — we must slow the growth of government spending.”
But Mr Darling responded: “I cannot believe that it is right that we should stand back and, as he seems to be implying, let the recession take its course.”
The Tories were out of line with most of the rest of the world, including Barack Obama, the US President-elect, in their response to the downturn, he said. “I’m sorry that the Leader of the Opposition seems not only to be taking a different track from us but also actually saying he would take money out of the economy now, because he said he wanted to see action to reduce borrowing now. I challenge him to tell us where is he going to take money out of the economy.” He also dismissed the Tories’ call yesterday for an immediate general election, insisting that ministers were focused on the challenges facing the country. “That’s what we should be concentrating on — that and nothing else,” he said.
However, the credibility of the Chancellor’s hope that steep interest rate cuts and his £20 billion giveaway would deliver a rapid turnaround in the economy was undermined by one of the men who sets the Bank of England’s base rate. Andrew Sentance said that the recession was set to be at least as bad as Britain’s three previous postwar recessions — in the mid-Seventies and the early Eighties and Nineties. “I now expect the recession to be of comparable depth to those previous downturns,” said Mr Sentance, an external member of the Bank committee that sets interest rates.
As Mr Darling prepared for questioning by MPs about his forecasts this afternoon, his chief economic adviser admitted that the prediction for growth would resume in the second half of next year depended on banks ending the lending drought. “We are conditioning \ on credit conditions returning to a new norm,” David Ramsden told the Treasury Committee. He defended the Treasury’s forecasts that the economy would grow by as much as 2 per cent in 2010 and rejected MPs’ charges that its projections were “Noddy economics”.
He insisted that both the Treasury and the Bank of England were justifiably betting that growth would be rekindled by a combination of tumbling energy prices, drastic interest rate cuts, the falling pound, the “fiscal stimulus” of lower VAT and a short-term rise in public spending.
Articles from our sister site WSJ.com:
You may be asked to subscribe to read certain articles
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£24,250 - £30,346
MI5
London
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Any business that was run by New Labour would have gone under years ago. Its decisions have left us with massive debts and negligable return on investment. It should be cutting public spending now, not waiting. The truly prudent are paying for Brown's cheap words.
Peter, St.Albans, Herts
The concept of lowering interest rates is flawed, when money becomes worthless then there is nothing left. The existing cash left in the world is being sent to those economies that have the highest interest rates thereby artificially propping them up (eg NZ ) Interest rates need to rise worldwide
VALENTINA, AUCKLAND, NZ
This country needs a short,sharp correction which is neither comfortable,palatable or politically correct. We need another Maggie to save us all from the inevitable decline.
Barry Jordan, London, England
Running an economy is simply an extension of running a company - if you're in debt and your revenues are falling the last thing to do is borrow and spend. People who can't see this are blind to reality.
Chris , St Martin, Jersey
How about this. Deflation is a danger next year, so we still want to have a little inflation. One way of creating inflation is to print money, one way out of the government debt is to print money to clear it - QED - print money!
Could I do any worse as chancellor than Brown and Darling?
Andrew, Cambridge,
A suggestion for all those who think we have any choice but to increase debt and spending, please go to youtube and search for 'Money as debt' video by Paul Grignon. Once you have seen it please pass it around - its completely fascinating and if right very scary!!
pd, bristol,
Anthony, this isn't like Japan as they very gradually reduced rates over many years which led to the stagnation of the economy. It was too slow and too long, while ours is a short sharp shock to the system to put cash in our pockets to help the economy. They won't be low for long, maybe 12-18 months
Matt, Leeds, UK
Labour still can't see that this is the unravelling of the Ponzi scheme they have presided over for the past decade. Ultimately the only way out of this mess is hyperinflation. The BoE will print money to destroy debt, concomittantly destroying peoples' savings and pensions.
j dickinson, middlesborough,
Unfortunately most of us realise that when Brown says invest, what he actually does is waste, waste, waste on committees and clipboard-bearing jobsworths.
Cameron is right not to dig the hole deeper; the way forward is to rationalise and spend the savings we make...
Dave H, London, UK
I keep asking, and nobody replies, where is all the money going?
Of course, with such a depressed economy we will become the new 3rd World, and all those offshored jobs will come flooding back.
Ron, Milton Keynes, UK
Global recovery will come from governments & PLCs creating new values on sustainable growth and quality living - responsible urban development, cleaner energy & fairtrade - not increased consumer spending on disposable goods. This requires strategy and investment. Thumbs up Gordon. Grow up Cameron.
Russell, Brisbane, Australia
0% interest rates didn't help Japan in the 90's - and it won't help the UK now either. Why? The rate cuts won't be passed onto borrowers, the £ will fall even more thereby importing inflation compounded by the Treasury simply printing more money. We're well and truly stuck in the Brown stuff!
Anthony, Leeds,
Brown and Darling say this recession is not of their making. But Brown did claim responsibility for the preceding boom years.
He can't have it both ways.
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
'0% Interest rates = Major Disaster for the UK, what do you do then' . Simple the next step is quantitative easing it over name is printing the money and giving it to the banks to lend. I understand that the Americans are doing this or about to, however, the last time this was done was in the 1930's
Philip Harris, Lancing, uk
So the pound drops like a stone and the poor are urged to shop till they drop and forget about liquidating debt. Everyone I speak to says it is very unwise not to reduce debt, except this Government. If this was their Financial advice they would be had up for bad advice!
James, London,
Lowering interest rates and reducing VAT have not brought any joy to date. If a 0% rate were introduced, surely it would announce to the world that Britain's economy is in a worse state than previously thought? If so, then it would be a death wish.
Dwight Vandryver, Scholar Green, UK
Yes, Cameron is out of line with most of the rest of the world run by big government socialists. Good!
Simon Bee, Mons, France
RIP New Labour.
Thank goodness.
Tim A, London,
Unblock the Microenergy Bill, and release the constraints, there is so much business to be done, so many sales, so many jobs, so many benefits for all!
Clive Burghard, Lancing, ENGLAND
The economic predictions by this government goes out of credit within a fortnight. How can we trust their ability to manage the crisis let alone solve it. More and more of the cut in interest rates and borrowing will not do.
S Yogarajah, Harrow, UK
0% Interest rates = Major Disaster for the UK, what do you do then ??????????
And when imports ( everything the UK needs and uses oil included ) cost 5 times as much?
Peter, Aldershot, UK
we should let the recession take its course, by borrowing to intervene at a time when we already have massive debts all we are doing is prolonging the recession. what sort of insanity is it, when we are losing jobs hand over fist to promise to make the cost of the average job £100 pa more expensive?
will, grimsby, uk
You can NOT spend your way out of a receession. Full Stop;
Brown and Obama are both wrong. But, God help us, they seem to have a monopoly on power right now.
May the Lord have mercy on all the people in the UK and the USA who wll come after us. - They wlll need it!
Edwin, Bucharest,