Made-in-China goods have filled shelves from Tesco to Burberry, but latest signals indicate exports from the workshop to the world have begun to fall sharply, and could even have shrunk last month.

Reports suggest that preliminary estimates from customs authorities showed exports in November were worth around $100 billion and imports about $70 billion, marking declines for both.

It would be the first monthly fall in seven years, since June 2001. In November last year, China’s exports were worth $108 billion.

Official figures are expected to be released tomorrow, and are almost certain to make for grim reading in a country that in four short years has transformed itself into a major exporting nation.

In October, exports were valued at $128 billion, a rise of 19.2 percent from the previous year.

The 21st Century Business Herald said officials were alarmed by the latest estimates. “The dramatic fall in import and export volumes has shocked policymakers,” it said, adding that customs authorities were now giving government leaders daily estimates of trade flows. Previously, they provided these numbers every 10 days.

If China’s exports do confound expectations by falling, it will confirm a trend in other Asian powerhouses showing a dramatic illustration of collapse in the world economy since Lehman Brothers was allowed to go bankrupt in mid-September.

That has prompted banks to retreat not only from lending to each other but from mundane corners of banking such as trade finance. The result has left export-import firms across Asia scrambling for credit to pay for the container loads of textiles, toys and furniture that ply the seas.

Anecdotal evidence from logistics and shipping companies suggests China has been as badly hit as Malaysia, Korea and Taiwan. Taiwan’s exports in November slumped by almost a quarter from a year earlier, the sharpest drop in seven years. That severe contraction comes after South Korea reported last week that its November shipments dropped 18 percent.

If the newspaper leak turns out to be true it will help to explain why China rushed out its $586 billion stimulus package and has slashed interest rates.

Net exports accounted for almost 3.0 percentage points of last year’s 11.9 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Export-orientated factories in southern China have been closing by the thousands in recent weeks and migrant workers are streaming home in the hundreds of thousands for the Chinese new year holiday -- months earlier than usual.

The ripple effect is already spreading to industries such as ship-building where orders have collapsed and China is scrambling to take up the slack.

The weakness in exports has led to speculation that this is why China last week allowed the renminbi to show a brief dip against the dollar.

China has already announced three rounds of tax breaks, increasing rebates on VAT, since July and there is speculation that there will be more to come. Authorities have also scrapped export taxes on other items, including some steel products, fanning fears in the West that China is gearing up unload its excess capacity on world markets.

One of ironies is that even if export growth slows sharply or turns negative, the import bill is coming down just as fast, partly because oil and other commodities have slumped.

The result is that economists are tipping a trade surplus for November, close to October’s record of $35.2 billion.

Imports are declining not just because of lack of domestic demand. As much as half enter China for processing, but as export demand drops then the imports needed for this cheap assembly work bolting together bits and pieces from the rest of Asia is also declining.

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