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The economy is plunging deeper into recession despite emergency tax cuts and the multibillion-pound bank bailout, the Bank of England said yesterday.
Cutting the base rate to its lowest level in more than 50 years, the Bank said the outlook now was worse than a month ago, with manufacturing and consumer spending in sharp decline.
The one-point cut left the base rate at 2 per cent, its lowest since 1951, but economists are forecasting already that the cost of borrowing could fall further, with a base rate of zero per cent no longer out of the question. The Bank’s dramatic move followed a relentless stream of dire economic news over the past four weeks that has fuelled fears that Britain’s plight will be worse than the recession of the early 1990s.
The Bank, which cut rates by 1.5 percentage points in November, acknowledged the risk of a deep, prolonged recession yesterday. It conceded that more will need to be done to jump-start stalled growth, and paved the way for further rate cuts. In a bleak assessment, it said: “Business surveys have weakened further and suggest that the downturn has gathered pace. Consumer spending and business investment have stalled.”
Last month the Bank predicted that the economy would shrink next year by 1.3 per cent, its worst performance since 1991, It now admits that conditions have since grown more grim.
There was now “a weaker outlook for activity in the near term”.
Halifax, the country’s biggest mortgage lender, reported yesterday that house prices fell by 2.6 per cent last month, The drop left house prices down by a record 16.1 per cent over the past 12 months. Prices are falling twice as fast as in the early 1990s.
The Bank of England pinned much of the blame for the economy’s slide on the borrowing drought that high street banks have inflicted on consumers and businesses alike.
In a hint that it may take more radical steps to stimulate lending, it said that with banks hoarding cash, it was unlikely that normal lending “would be restored without further measures”.
After meeting bank chiefs, Alistair Darling added to pressure on them with a call for the rate cut to be fully passed on. Britain had been the first country to recapitalise its banks, he said, adding: “We now need to go further, to ensure those banks can resume lending to businesses, which is absolutely critical.”
The Chancellor said the Treasury remained ready to do “whatever we can” to help banks lend. He added: “It is absolutely essential that they help and treat their customers fairly.”
For homebuyers with tracker mortgages that follow base rates, the cuts since early November should have reduced the monthly cost of a £150,000 repayment mortgage by £210 to £711.
The Prime Minister said he hoped the combination of falling mortgage bills, lower petrol prices, and marked drops in the cost of gas and electricity expected next year would “help home-owners to feel more secure”.
However, the Bank’s warnings appeared to question the effectiveness of the Government’s £20 billion fiscal stimulus and could be seen as a hint that it might yield only limited benefits.
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What about people like me who have no debt (I knew I couldn't afford a mortgage so I'm renting) but have been trying to save? I'm one of the many big losers from the interest rate cuts.
Nicky, Nottingham,
I can't help thinking that someone or some how the government is making a lot of money out of this crisis. Why else are profits rising in Tesco, Asda, Morrisons, etc. Supermarkets affect everyone and yet nothing is being done to control the obscene amount of profit they make recession or not.
Paul, Boston, UK
Our thanks to Mr Brown for underlining for the third time in 60 years that a Labour government knows plenty about wasting taxpayers money and absolutely nothing about business the wealth creator.How long will it take before he admits to himself that he has not got a clue?? - I wonder.
Rob, IPswich,
Face it. We over extended the boom years and now the recession we are facing is exaggerated. Stop manipulating the markets and economy, recapitalise individuals not business. Without bolstering the consumer, the recession will be deeper and longer. Many of these businesses are poorly run anyway.
Vernon Butcher, basingstoke, england
Base rates to 1% in Jan, to 0.5% in Feb. Then we WILL re-invest in our business. Remove balance sheet restrictions from banks and they can lend again. Brown to blame - too much legislation, too little commonsense - strangling small businesses.
Anton, Wakefield,
55% of people are fixed rate mortgages. BoE can reduce the rate to 0% it does not make a difference. What Brown needs to do is stop spending peoples money through his punative tax system or stop bailing out banks and give the money direct to the people to pay off the their contract with banks.
steve tea, manchester, cheshire
Monetary policy is now being set by the government in order for Gordon Brown to improve his chances at the next election.
If responsible savers get shafted in the process then that's ok with him.
Steve, Abergele, UK
base rate has fallen, credit rates have increased. credit providers are profiteering, and being subsudised by the taxpayer. interest rate controls should be introduced. the main problem is the debt traded by financial institutions. these are practically worthless, they should be written off.
gary, worthing , england
As the Bank of England say the blame lies on the Banks as they got burnt by bad lending and now need to hoard to bolster their obscene profits, just like most companies making a fair profit is not good enough because human nature always demands more than previous.They need to look at what is fair
L.S.BOTTOMLEY, LEEDS , ENGLAND
What use is cutting rates for credit that does not exist? Can reducing the price of money be seen as encouragement to the banks to lend more? It is highly doubtful.
The massive rate cuts will not only not solve the problem but gives the signal that irresponsible borrowing is the right thing to do
Luke Simms, London,
I agree with Chris. Apart from holding the interest rate cuts what have banks actually done to aid their position? Have they increased lending, are they making it easier for consumers to get a mortgage or continuing to place barriers?
Alex, Chichester, UK
Yes that sounds a good idea Chris in Hong-Kong, just write-off years and years of credit card debts for the people who go into debt.
I take it that means people like me who have worked and saved all their life will get a huge bonus for not going into debt.
The system should encourage hard work
Craig Watkins, Bury, Lancashire
We need a new government.
Christian, England, UK
is this not the same as responding to fires by issuing matches?
the system is collapsing not because interest rates are too high, but because wealth has been destroyed by nearly 2 decades of spending what we as individuals and as a country could not afford.
we need a new system.
nigel foster, ryde, uk
We have far worse problems now with financial leverage, population and the recent plateau in technology advances than those that were around in the late 20's. What are peoples thought's on where the tipping points into a depression lie? Or have we evolved past that stage?
Nathan Cafearo, Douglas, Isle of Man
This painful situation could end with ONE simple agreement between all nations of the world: forgive all debt.
It really is that simple but my guess is that this will never happen as long as people fail to realise that we are one and the same.
Good luck to all good people.
Rate cuts ARE A JOKE!
NDG, Tokyo, Japan
None of the measures thus far taken has done anything to reduce the debt of individuals! Consumer confidence is hardly liely to improve with a massive debt burden! What is needed is for credit card debt to be written off, or at lest the interest thereon,likewise for home mortgages.
Chris , Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Brown told us that his experience would get us through this crisis and that his recapitalisation of the banks was his brilliant plan to save the world. The recapitalisation hasn't worked as businesses cannot obtain credit from the banks and now the BOE clearly don't think his fiscal stimulus will help
james, swindon, uk