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Read the Tempus analysis on the services sector
Calls for another aggressive cut in interest rates by the Bank of England intensified today after a key survey revealed that the UK services sector shrank in November at its fastest pace since the series began in 1996.
The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply/Markit purchasing managers’ index for the sector fell from 42.4 in October to 40.1 last month — below the consensus forecast of 41.2 and the seventh month below the growth threshold of 50.
Today’s dire reading of the services sector, which accounts for around two thirds of the UK economy, follows record declines in manufacturing and construction activity, indicating that the recession could be deeper and longer than anticipated.
The Bank's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) starts its two-day rate meeting today, and will announce its decision at midday tomorrow.
Business groups have stepped up calls for a full percentage point cut, taking rates to 2 per cent, the lowest level since 1951. But a leading economist has called for a 150-basis point cut.
John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PricewaterhouseCoopers, the accountancy firm, said that a failure to cut rates from the current 3 per cent to 1.5 per cent could heighten the risk of the country plunging into a depression
He said: "This is no time for half measures. We see no reason for the MPC to delay making a further one and half percentage point cut in base rates in order to mitigate the risks of the recession turning into a full-blown recession."
Commenting on the deterioration in UK services, Paul Smith, senior economist at Markit Economics, said: “The UK service sector data again surprised on the downside during November.
“Combined with the appalling numbers for manufacturing and construction, the survey confirms that recession is now snowballing and heading into deeper territory as 2008 draws to a close.”
Britain’s economy contracted in the third quarter for the first time since the recession of the early 1990s and surveys suggest the final three months of the year will be just as bad, if not worse.
The services sector spans businesses from cafes to banks and has been in the front line of fire as a global shortage of capital has forced banks to tighten lending.
The index measuring business expectations fell below 50 for the first time in the survey’s history, suggesting efforts to kick-start the economy with monetary and fiscal levers have yet to have the desired effect.
The Bank of England has cut interest rates by two percentage points since October, taking them to 3 per cent, their lowest since the early 1950s.
The survey also suggested that deflation will become policymakers’ biggest worry going into next year.
Prices charged by services firms fell last month for the first time in seven years, while input costs rose at their slowest pace since early 2002.
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As someone with a £300K mortgage at 10 times income I am delighted with rate cuts as I have a lifetime tracker with no floor - hope to be paying 2% after tomorrow. Yipee, now where's that champagne crate? High time I stopped paying over the odds for savers' money !!
David, Bournemouth, UK
Rates are already down to 3%. How much more do they want them to go down? The interest payments must already be negligible compared with the capital repayment. If you have a loan for 25 years for example, you are basically paying around 4% back each year on average.
Richard, Alicante, Spain
If only it were a "simple" economic argument. Cuts have more to do with timing, and that time passed last year whilst they sat on their hands.
Contrary to popular belief I can now see many people shocked by the increase in imported goods and inflation due to the weak pound. Am I the only one?
Rex Lester, Surbiton, UK
The CBI has always wanted to borrow cheap money, or better still, free money. The Queen said in her speech "My Government will give incentives to increase saving". If the interest rate goes to zero (doesn't have far to go) who is going to save? Where will the borrowers money come from?
Richard, Alicante, Spain
Demanding that banks write new tracker mortgages at these low rates is utterly reckless of the government. What happens when rates go back up, which they will with vigour when the pound crashes?
Mortgage rates should be fixed, permanently. Problem solved.
Tom Brewer, Slough, UK
"Experts" calling for drastic rate cuts probably have large mortgages, and are simply coming up with this argument for their own selfish benefit.Why are savers ignored when it comes to rates ? If someone suggests you save for your old age, ignore them and borrow all you can, and spend the lot.
Mike, Dunstable, England
Rate cutting has devalued Sterling and led to fuel and food price rises in the UK being twice those of the rest of the EU. How has that 'helped' the economy?
Paul, Coventry,
Peter, your business will get a lot smaller if people are reducing their costs significantly. Yes you may be losing a small amount of taxable interest, but the earning potential of your business will suffer far greater losses without significant rate cuts. Deflation is a serious issue.
Matt, Leeds, UK
Too late to reduce rates now. Look upon it as a long overdue economic correction. Reduce taxes to companies and people producing real things. Cut Government waste. Cut ridiculous Civil Servant salaries. Tax billionaires. Create wealth by selling things abroad that people want! It's not difficult!
Chris, London,
Alistair, it's quite simple. Company already has base-linked loan. Therefore overheads lower, therefore maintains profitability, therefore doesn't go bust, therefore people spend wages, therefore manufacturing continues. Individuals have more disposable income through paying less for mortgage. Yes?
Nick, Seaford, UK
Reducing interest rates can only help if they are passed on by lending institutions. Over the longer term it is vital to introduce new technology to negate over dependence on imported oil, energy, and materials. We need to produce via our own resources.
B Clark, Redditch, UK
Has'nt anybody heard of the liquidity trap - the point where reducing the interest rate has no effect. We are are very probably near this point now
malcolm, ely,
As the owner of a small business I have seen the rate paid by my bank (A&L) fall from 5.25% to 2.75% in a matter of weeks. How does cutting rates reward prudent businesses (or individuals)? Why does Govenrment policy always favour the impecunious?
Peter, St.Albans, Herts
How will reducing rates that companies pay for loans they can't get improve things? The BoE don't directly put money in to small business so this measure won't provide what it historically used to. There will still be a buffer time where backs claw back money which will see things worsen for some.
Alistair Kipling, Birmingham,