The global economy has a lot riding on what happens on November 28: the day after Thanksgiving and the moment when the American consumer shows the world just how much he is prepared to consume. For China and the “world’s factory” of Guangdong province, it may be the biggest wager of all.

The trouble is that Beijing’s bet on Guangdong amounts to a 30-year accumulator – locked into the larger gamble are a series of sub-gambles for which the price of losing could be very high.

One week ago, when Beijing unveiled a four trillion yuan (£392 billion) stimulus package, it was easy to interpret the move as a huge doubling-up on the original stake. First and foremost of the bets arises from Guangdong’s role as the bellwether of the entire Chinese economy and the wrinkle that the Communist Party’s legitimacy rests on its ability to deliver growth: where Guangdong slips, so, too, does Beijing’s image as the architect of the economic miracle.

The 3,600 toy factory closures, the departure of more than 800,000 workers back to the country and other recent setbacks may be endurable: the real test will be whether Guangdong can continue to sell the products of its still immense manufacturing base through a global downturn.

In a year-on-year comparison, exports were up 13.5 per cent in the first three quarters of 2008. If that pace is maintained, or even modestly reduced, there will be a loud sigh of relief: if November 28 turns out to be Black Friday, things could get very bleak.

The next few months – or even years, depending on the extent of the global downturn – will test another of Beijing’s big gambles. Since late 2006, wage growth in Guangdong has actually pushed some companies in Asia, Europe and the United States to rethink their operational calculations: when it comes to certain very low-end goods, of the sort that cities such as Dongguan specialise in, it has become cheaper to have them made in Vietnam or Mexico.

Viewing this as more opportunity than threat, Beijing began to push a strategy of “moving up the value chain”, or of encouraging the factories of Guangdong to up the ante in terms of technology, skills and the complexity of the goods produced there.

Unfortunately, that process, which was always going to require temporary sacrifice of growth in the name of long-term expansion, began to play itself out just as the world stopped buying high-tech consumer electronics goods. Beijing stands to face criticism if it pushed the right strategy, but much too soon.

But a huge bet also stands to be lost by Beijing if the remigration of rural workers back to their farms gathers pace. Remittances to the countryside provinces from youngsters toiling in the factories in Guangdong has been one of the most powerful financial transmission mechanisms for pushing China’s growing wealth throughout the system. Its efficiency as a circulator of money from rich to poor regions has been the Government’s great silent boon in the effort to have poorer Chinese feel the effects of those soaring national GDP figures.

After November 28 may come a greater test for China: when people head back to their homes from Guangdong to spend the Lunar New Year holidays with their parents, will they decide to go back to work and risk being the next victim of a factory shutout?

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