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Which ever candidate wins the US presidential elections tomorrow, America will continue to travel down the “socialist” path, leading experts predict.
Although an Obama presidency is expected to be less friendly to capitalism than a McCain one, previously unimaginable events such as the partial takeover of banks by the US Government last month are likely to continue, whoever succeeds President Bush.
Such developments are likely to go hand in hand with a demand for much greater accountability on the part of US businesses. Josh Lerner, professor of investment banking at Harvard Business School, said: “There has been such a big backlash against the bailout of the banks that there is a huge demand for the Government to get its pound of flesh. A system that allows the private sector to make huge profits in the good times and then get cleaned up by the Government when things go bad is not a sustainable model.”
James Owers, professor of finance at Georgia State University, added: “It was the increasingly lax regulation that has got us into this economic pickle. Regardless of who prevails on Tuesday, regulation, especially in financial services, is going to be tightened up — although more under Obama.”
Neither candidate has detailed how they expect regulation to change if they become president. Mr Owers predicts that an Obama presidency would see the US Government taking more ownership stakes in banks and insurance companies. The White House has set aside $250 billion (£155.4billion) to inject into US banks such as Bank of America and Citigroup, but insurers are not eligible. However, the recipients of such aid would be subject to penalties under either new president, Mr Owers said. Mr Obama is likely to be keen to rein in the pay and bonuses of executives in the banks receiving taxpayers' cash and to preside over a clampdown on their risk management, especially the amount of leverage the institutions are permitted, he said.
The treatment of the banks receiving government aid was not detailed in the Act relating to the broader $700 billion government rescue plan.
Mr Obama or Mr McCain would not have absolute power when it comes to regulating financial services and other industries, since they must work with Congress to enact change.
Chris Whalen, of Institutional Risk Analytics, a group that analyses risk in the banking industry, said: “Obama is relatively inexperienced and will be led by the hardcore left — such as Barney Frank and Chris Dodd — who have been largely ignored in the past eight years. They have a very definite agenda and it is quite socialistic.”
Mr Frank is the chairman of the House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee and Mr Dodd chairs the Senate Banking Committee. The committees have the power to introduce and influence the passage of new legislation. They played key roles in the progress of the bailout package.
On Friday, Mr Frank urged Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, to “make it absolutely clear to any participating entity that the Federal Government will insist on compliance” with the law.
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