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A collapse in tax revenues will send government borrowing soaring above £60 billion this year, it emerged last night.
Gordon Brown is preparing to tear up his “golden rule” on debt in order to fund a massive spending spree to counter the looming recession. Some economists predict that the level of government borrowing could reach £110 billion by 2011.
The triple shocks of the financial markets crash, housing slump and rising inflation will cause a drastic reduction in the billions of pounds that the Treasury normally receives in stamp duty, corporation tax and income tax, combined with the need to spend more on benefits.
But Alistair Darling will confirm tomorrow that new, “flexible” financial rules will be introduced to allow the Government to borrow as much as £3,225 for every person in the country in an effort to stave off an even deeper recession.
The Chancellor will also claim that the new rules will set out a “credible plan” for reducing borrowing swiftly when the economic tide finally turns.
However, alarm over Britain’s precarious financial position has spooked the markets. The pound fell to its lowest level in six years yesterday and shares endured more volatile trading amid expectations of an emergency cut in interest rates. Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, said: “I don’t think people have yet realised what the impact is going to be on the real economy, on businesses and jobs.”
Mr Darling will set out the background for the revised financial rules in the annual Mais lecture. He will not reveal the details but will leave no doubt that his aim is to allow borrowing to rise in the short term and be brought back on course later on.
He will say that the impact of the downturn will be felt far more quickly than in previous recessions because of the big reductions in corporation tax and income tax through the loss of City bonuses, the drying-up of the housing market - which has slashed the stamp duty take - and the fact that next year’s benefit increases will be based on last month’s high-water inflation figure. The borrowing figures and revised rules will be revealed in the PreBudget Report next month.
David Cameron said the borrowing was not to get Britain out of recession but because of the mistakes that Mr Brown had made as Chancellor. “This is not a man with a plan, it’s a man with an overdraft,” he said.
The Bank of England said that the five biggest banks and Nationwide building society could lose as much as £130 billion over the next five years, well in excess of the £50 billion that the banks recently promised to raise as part of the Treasury’s £500 billion bailout plan, forcing the banks to ask shareholders for even more cash.
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Mr Brown, how can you have a golden rule when you sold all the gold?
DH, Newport, UK
I don`t see the problem. Nationalise BP - profits in next 10 quarters pays off the 60 billion and there`s 4 billion left to either help pensioners with their fuel bills or to give a bit of compensation to the shareholders.
Ozzy, Oldham, UK
What credibility has a man who tears up a "golden rule"?
If Brown knew as much as he would have us believe he would have seen the big rock the economy was headed towards. In truth, however, no other political leader has offered a better response to the crisis.
Des, Edinburgh,
Gordon's only plan is to engineer a window of opportunity in which Labour stands an earthly chance of winning the next election. UK plc come a poor second. So expect some short term 'rabbits out of hats' to produce what little feel good factor is feasible, before things start to get really nasty.
Alan Gooch, Honiton, UK
To drop all the blame at the feet of The Prime minister is wide of the mark. The government must take much of the blame but Mammon Rules has been the Rule in the Financial Markets for too long. Now it has come home to roost. We should all look to see what we can do to help.
Paul Skinner, Derbyshire, England U K
UK on-balance Sheet debt is £100+billion.
UK off-balance Sheet debt is £1.5+trillion.
Gordon Brown has accepted a USA style of debt. The difference is that the USA can get itself out of this debt, UK cant!!
Louis, Liverpool, UK
What happens if this massive public investment doesn't increase tax credits and boost the economy like all of Gordons other plans? Does this route sound like a way to hyper inflation? I think the time to leave this country is now, oh wait no our currecy has fallen flat on its face! Help!
C, Roydon,
I wont be surprised if The Scottish Nationalist group in Downing Street force us in taking out a high insurance policy to cover our savings in nationalised banks.
Callum, Liverpool, UK
None of this would have been allowed under TB. GB would have simply carried on posing as the prudent chancellor. Bet he wouldn't even mind the Euro now TB's gone, but the timing stinks since he's desperate to drive the Pound lower for exports to bail him out of trouble and maybe even into a 4th term
Nick, Athens,
As I see it, Brown brings forward projects that have been planned for the future, anyway. The borrowing provides jobs now, while the money is paid back when the upturn comes. Sounds like a win/ win plan to me. People in work, paying tax instead of collecting the dole and schools can be used earlier.
Dr. Dave Sweet, Sutton, Surrey
Its all too easy to blame the man currently in charge for what is a global problem. He is the only person with the experience to pull us through it. What would you people rather have, someone with his experience who is respected by the other world leaders in similar positions, or someone with none?
David , Oxford,
He failed to pay the money back last time - we end the cycle with more borrowing than we started with.
Why should we believe him now? He's good at borrowing but not at repaying - just like many soon-to-be-repo'd homeowners.
Go Gordon!
Mike Carter, Bristol,
Mark my words. In the future, history will tell us that this is the man who almost bankrupt Britain.
Paul, Bracknell,
Brown is right to spend more now. We can think about repaying the debt when time has come, but now we need to get out of the mess first. No time for timid spending cuts.
Peter, Liverpool, UK
Gordon Brown is tearing up all the rules of logic, common-sense and responsibility. Actually, he did that years ago when he started adjusting the so-called economic cycle to disguise the failure of his fiscal policies. The ship is sinking, and he is loading still more ballast.
Martin, London,
The fact the GB can get away with things like this is a sure sign that the political system is failing us. Unfortunately I have no better alternative to suggest. Unless the politicians start acting responsibly I fear a massive backlash at some point - which will be even worse than the current farce
Ian, Norwich,
He is the one who was imprudent in thefirst place now he thinks he can spend himself out of the mess. The country will be mortgaged for years to come due to his folly. he must go.
James, London,
Spending must be cut, borrowing won't allow the economy to adjust to the new realities. Like in a pyramid scheme, when you find you aren't making money like you were promised, you go looking for more people to buy into it, but inevitably it doesn't work.
Neil, Norwich, UK
UK will be bankrupted by 2010
Mike, Sole Street, England
More of our money to be thrown at schemes that NuLabour have so far shown to be wasteful.Why doesn't Brown give us tax breaks,i'm sure we the taxpayers of this country would do a better job than this spendthrift discredited useless Government,at least we would be spending our own hard earned money.
Kenneth O'Boyle, Perth, United Kingdom
With the bank bail out and now this absurd extra spending, Brown has sold out future generations to keep baby boomers in their second homes as long as possible. No wonder half a million graduates emmigrate every year. Most won't want to return to the Great British Banana Republic.
Bob, Osaka, Japan
Scorched earth, anyone?
Andrew J Iddon, London, UK
'Lord Mandelson...said: I dont think people have yet realised what the impact is going to be...'
That certainly explains the 'Brown bounce' in the recent poll but it may eventually dawn that his 'let borrowing be unconfined' strategy is taxation postponed (until after 2010!).
m collins, Leeds,
It is an absolute stupidity to inject a lot of fresh money into the housing & building industry.
It can not stop recession and it will not produce any results in a short term (as they say it will).
savo, london, uk
Apart from being a communist and having a degree in history, why is Brown considered to be financially competent?
It's not much different to putting a bus driver in charge of a commercial airliner!
peterj, aberdeen, uk
Of course borrowing will have to rise, but the better way out of the recession is lower interest rates, tax cuts on lower incomes and the elderly, and cuts in government expenditure where it is wasteful About four vfifths of quangos would be a good start. Public prudence, private confidence.
John barnes, Etchingham, UK
When will the public realize it is not Brown fault but their own for buying more than they could afford .?
This is a world wide problem .
Are the public stupid enough to believe Brown is responsible for the whole worlds problems.
I guess its human nature to always blame someone else .
brian lee, medina, usa
The last Labour government had to go to the IMF with the begging bowl. The Conservatives had to sort out the mess. History is about to repeat itself. Brown knows he is unelectable and no longer cares how much he increases borrowing. Just remember who will end up paying for his mess - you.
Can't stand Brown, Dorset, UK
Brown claimed that he was "prudent". But who ar suffering now? Those who have saved for their retirement while the role model Brown spent and wasted £billions and effectively guided many to overspend income because he had busted "bust" forever. Yet the polls show he is considered "good" at money!
M. Cawdery, Portadown, Co. UK, EU Courtesy Brown
So the government is now planning to do what got us as individuals into this mess in the first place - uncontrolled borrowing!
Why didn't they save for a rainy day? Oh it was to create employment through huge public sector employment increases. He doubled NHS spend in real terms and where are we?
Andrew, Cambridge,
I cannot believe that borrowing could reach £110 billion by 2011.
One can only call for a Conservative government to cut taxes. There was a lesson to be learned from Franklin Delano Roosevelt - cut taxes, get the country working again and empower people to spend.
Roy, Manchester,
The Prime Minister has lost all credibility and to not even see the hypocracy and duplicity of his comments as an absolute insult to the tax paying UK population beggars belief.
Can we really, as an electorate, afford this madness to continue? Truly the lunatics are now running the asylum.!!
Robert D Marshall, LONDON, UK
Brown and Darling know exactly what they are doing. By telegraphing their spending plans they are, like every schoolboy knows, driving down the pound into the arms of the Euro. This is a premeditated act to destroy our independence and emasculate us forever as a proud and free nation.
Hello EUSSR!
Radney, Clevedon, England
i agree with David Cameron, he is a man with an overdraft who will get hit hard when the interest rates are piled on. there is nothing one governemet can do about global downturn. leave it to its own devices and stop wasting billions of tax payers cash
Liam, Aberdeen, Scotland
The only rules Brown has ever fully implemented can be paraphrased in the words "I spent,I taxed,I plundered.
I submit that this would be a fitting epitaph on his dubious record of economic prudence.
rob, Ipswich,
Is anyone really surprised?
Isn't this how Labour governments always finish up?
Chris, St Leonards-on-sea, UK
The issue at the root of teh current problem is the level of borrowing, Browns solution borrow more!! Petrol and fire springs to mind.
It's like a senile parent borrowing money they wont have to pay back and passing the debt to the next generation. Dispicable.
Russ, Glasgow,
So "golden rules", "prudence" and "no more boom and bust" are all consigned to the dustbin of history! When the 'true' state of national debt is revealed, the Government will be wishing their fathers had not met their mothers, as will all taxpayers! "Labour isn't working".
Rod Ballard, Leicester,
yet gordon brown has just committed £800 million aid to india , which has embarked on very expensive space projects
are we c razy ??
david , edinburgh, scotland
Golden rule book my hat. He's been spending like there's no tomorrow since the day he became chancellor: he always had his eye on no 10 and has been totally lax with the city as well as using taxpayers' money non-stop to shore up his popularity. We'll be paying for his PMship for decades.
isabella, london, uk
While i agree that Gordon Brown (or the labour government of the past decade) must burden a large slice of responsibility for the position we find our country in now. I also suggest it is indicative of our society at large, too many people living outside their means, too much borrowing.
Ben, Salisbury,
His economic views are flawed; he had the idea to slash City bonuses, now he complains about the resulting tax losses. He vows on the Keynesian plan, but he fails to see that failed in the early 70s recession. Whenever he goes, his successor will have to sort out the big mess Brown left.
Morgan, Birmingham,
Borrowing more is essential during a recession. Gordon however borrowed too much during the boom years so this is now really going to hurt. He does need to relook at all government expenditure and see what he can cut. If he has room to increase spending it should be as tax cuts to the low paid.
Andrew Piercy, London, UK
Why is Mr Brown adopting this scorched earth policy? Has he finally lost he plot?
mark, Leeds,
What a disaster Gordon Brown has been for the UK. Sooner he's gone the better.
tris, dundee,
These are frightening times and I no longer believe that Gordon Brown is the best man for rhe job. I for one haven't forgotten the series of countless blunders that Brown has made during these past 12 months.
He is a disaster...but how can we get rid of him...NOW
I fear 2010 will be too late.
Drew, Nottingham,
didnt he rip up his golden rule donkeys years ago when he brought in the £!00 billion of pfi. but obviously that doesnt count because it was off balance sheet.
will, grimsby, uk
Cameron said...This is not a man with a plan, its a man with an overdraft. Oh the wit, the wisdom, the grasp, the incisive lunge at incompetence - and abysmal dearth of counterplans.
The effeteness of the opposition gives Brown his get-out-of-jail-free card to go on and rob the community chest
Mike L, Chippenham,
It is becoming increasingly clear that the 'experienced ' Brown has not got a clue what to do . The only policy he has ever used is tax and spend and now people cannot afford any higher taxes, he has decided to borrow and spend instead. The experts say this is misguided. I know who I believe
jim, swindon, uk
Is there nothing we can do to stop this reckless behaviour...Surely the people responsible for the crisis ( Government in charge of unregulated debt) should not be allowed to carry on with their flawed plans.
You just know that they are just doing anything in the hope of success. Shame on them.
Billy, Bangkok, Thailand
Brown's spending spree will be deferred taxation in the form of hugely increased national debt. If he had taxed all those bonuses at higher levels during the 'nice decade', with less of an over-dependency on indirect taxation, we might have been better prepared to withstand the forthcoming storm...
David, London, UK
This government has also torn up the basic laws of economics too, not that Brown ever had a good grasp of them.
When Brown orders rates to be slashed to 1% who the hell is going to lend him the billions he needs?
Brown has killed this country. Why did no one try to stop him?
L McKay, North Shields, UK
Yet more of Brown's Shangri-La lying in ruins. He has led this Nation into a catastrophe that will burden us for generations.
A.M. Williams, Stafford,
let's put this in plain terms, as the Tories should,if all your credit cards are maxed out and you have just lost your job, the LAST thing you do is borrow money,even if it is to mend your car to get to work, but not to build a conservatory. that's common sense. is it not? too simple?
peter c, Devizes, Wessex
Oh! About those "flexible borrowing rules" that Gordon is proposing for his Government. Could we have them for our mortgages, credit cards, overdrafts and student loans please? That will do nicely thank you.
John Goode, Welwyn Garden City, UK