As stock markets headed off a cliff again last week, closely followed by
currencies, and as meltdown threatened entire countries such as Hungary and
Iceland, one voice was in demand above all others to steer us through the
gloom: that of Dr Doom.
For years Dr Doom toiled in relative obscurity as a New York University
economics professor under his alias, Nouriel Roubini. But after making a
series of uncannily accurate predictions about the global meltdown, Roubini
has become the prophet of his age, jetting around the world dispensing his
advice and latest prognostications to politicians and businessmen desperate
to know what happens next – and for any answer to the crisis.
While the economic sun was shining, most other economists scoffed at Roubini
and his predictions of imminent disaster. They dismissed his warnings that
the sub-prime mortgage disaster would trigger a financial meltdown. They
could not quite believe his view that the US mortgage giants Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac would collapse, and that the investment banks would be crushed
as the world headed for a long recession.
Yet all these predictions and more came true. Few are laughing now.
What does Roubini think is going to happen next? Rather worryingly, in London
last Thursday he predicted that hundreds of hedge funds will go bust and
stock markets may soon have to shut – perhaps for as long as a week – in
order to stem the panic selling now sweeping the world.
What happened? The next day trading was briefly stopped in New York and
Moscow.
Dubbed Dr Doom for his gloomy views, this lugubrious disciple of the “dismal
science” is now the world’s most in-demand economist. He reckons he is
getting about four hours’ sleep a night. Last week he was in Budapest,
London, Madrid and New York. Next week he will address Congress in
Washington. Do not expect any good news.
Contacted in Madrid on Friday, Roubini said the world economy was “at a
breaking point”. He believes the stock markets are now “essentially in free
fall” and “we are reaching the point of sheer panic”.
For all his recent predictive success, his critics still urge calm. They
charge he is a professional doom-monger who was banging on about recession
for years as the economy boomed. Roubini is stung by such charges,
dismissing them as “pathetic”.
He takes no pleasure in bad news, he says, but he makes his standpoint clear:
“Frankly I was right.” A combative, complex man, he is fond of the word
“frankly”, which may be appropriate for someone so used to delivering bad
news.
Born in Istanbul 49 years ago, he comes from a family of Iranian Jews. They
moved to Tehran, then to Tel Aviv and finally to Italy, where he grew up and
attended college, graduating summa cum laude in economics from Bocconi
University before taking a PhD in international economics at Harvard.
Fluent in English, Italian, Hebrew, and Persian, Roubini has one of those
“international man of mystery” accents: think Henry Kissinger without the
bonhomie. Single, he lives in a loft in Manhattan’s trendy Tribeca, an area
popularised by Robert De Niro, and collects contemporary art.
Despite his slightly mad-professor look, he is at pains to make clear he is
normal. “I’m not a geek,” said Roubini, who sounds rather concerned that
people might think he is. “I mean it frankly. I’m not a geek.”
He is, however, ferociously bright. When he left Harvard, he moved quickly,
holding various positions at the Treasury department, rising to become an
economic adviser to Bill Clinton in the late 1990s. Then his profile seemed
to plateau. His doubts about the economic outlook seemed out of tune with
the times, especially when a few years ago he began predicting a meltdown in
the financial markets through his blog, hosted on RGEmonitor. com, the
website of his advisory company.
But it was a meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September
2006 that earned him his nickname Dr Doom.
Roubini told an audience of fellow economists that a generational crisis was
coming. A once-in-a-lifetime housing bust would lay waste to the US economy
as oil prices soared, consumers stopped shopping and the country went into a
deep recession.
The collapse of the mortgage market would trigger a global meltdown, as
trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unravelled. The
shockwaves would destroy banks and other big financial institutions such as
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, America’s largest home loan lenders.
“I think perhaps we will need a stiff drink after that,” the moderator said.
Members of the audience laughed.
Economics is not called the dismal science for nothing. While the public might
be impressed by Nostradamus-like predictions, economists want figures and
equations. Anirvan Banerji, economist with the New York-based Economic Cycle
Research Institute, summed up the feeling of many of those at the IMF
meeting when he delivered his response to Roubini’s talk.
Banerji questioned Roubini’s assumptions, said they were not based on
mathematical models and dismissed his hunches as those of a Cassandra. At
first, indeed, it seemed Roubini was wrong. Meltdown did not happen. Even by
the end of 2007, the financial and economic outlook was grim but not
disastrous.
Then, in February 2008, Roubini posted an entry on his blog headlined: “The
rising risk of a systemic financial meltdown: the twelve steps to financial
disaster”.
It detailed how the housing market collapse would lead to huge losses for the
financial system, particularly in the vehicles used to securitise loans. It
warned that “ a national bank” might go bust, and that, as trouble deepened,
investment banks and hedge funds might collapse.
Even Roubini was taken aback at how quickly this scenario unfolded. The
following month the US investment bank Bear Stearns went under. Since then,
the pace and scale of the disaster has accelerated and, as Roubini
predicted, the banking sector has been destroyed, Freddie and Fannie have
collapsed, stock markets have gone mad and the economy has entered a
frightening recession.
Roubini says he was able to predict the catastrophe so accurately because of
his “holistic” approach to the crisis and his ability to work outside
traditional economic disciplines. A long-time student of financial crises,
he looked at the history and politics of past crises as well as the economic
models.
“These crises don’t come out of nowhere,” he said. “Usually they arrive
because of a systematic increase in a variety of asset and credit bubbles,
macro-economic policies and other vulnerabilities. If you combine them, you
may not get the timing right but you get an indication that you are closer
to a tipping point.”
Others who claimed the economy would escape a recession had been swept up in
“a critical euphoria and mania, an irrational exuberance”, he said. And many
financial pundits, he believes, were just talking up their own vested
interests. “I might be right or wrong, but I have never traded, bought or
sold a single security in my life. I am trying to be as objective as I can.”
What does his objectivity tell him now? No end is yet in sight to the crisis.
“Every time there has been a severe crisis in the last six months, people have
said this is the catastrophic event that signals the bottom. They said it
after Bear Stearns, after Fannie and Freddie, after AIG [the giant US
insurer that had to be rescued], and after [the $700 billion bailout plan].
Each time they have called the bottom, and the bottom has not been reached.”
Across the world, governments have taken more and more aggressive actions to
stop the panic. However, Roubini believes investors appear to have lost
confidence in governments’ ability to sort out the mess.
The announcement of the US government’s $700 billion bailout, Gordon Brown’s
grand bank rescue plan and the coordinated response of governments around
the world has done little to calm the situation. “It’s been a slaughter, day
after day after day,” said Roubini. “Markets are dysfunctional; they are
totally unhinged.” Economic fundamentals no longer apply, he believes.
“Even using the nuclear option of guaranteeing everything, providing unlimited
liquidity, nationalising the banks, making clear that nobody of importance
is going to be allowed to fail, even that has not helped. We are reaching a
breaking point, frankly.”
He believes governments will have to come up with an even bigger international
rescue, and that the US is facing “multi-year economic stagnation”.
Given such cataclysmic talk, some experts fear his new-found influence may be
a bad thing in such troubled times. One senior Wall Street figure said: “He
is clearly very bright and thoughtful when he is not shooting from the hip.”
He said he found some of Roubini’s comments “slapdash and silly”. “Sometimes
the rigour of his analysis seems to be missing,” he said.
Banerji still has problems with Roubini’s prescient IMF speech. “He has been
very accurate in terms of what would happen,” he said. But Roubini was
predicting an “imminent” recession by the start of 2007 and he was wrong.
“He hurt his credibility by being so pessimistic long before it was
appropriate.”
Banerji said on average the US economy had grown for five years before hitting
a bad patch. “Roubini started predicting a recession four years ago and
saying it was imminent. He kept changing his justification: first the trade
deficit, the current account deficit, then the oil price spike, then the
housing downturn and so on. But the recession actually did not arrive,” he
said.
“If you are an investor or a businessman and you took him seriously four years
ago, what on earth would happen to you? You would be in a foetal position
for years. This is why the timing is critical. It’s not enough to know what
will happen in some point in the distant future.”
Roubini says the argument about content and timing is irrelevant. “People who
have been totally blinded and wrong accusing me of getting the timing wrong,
it’s just a joke,” he said. “It’s a bit pathetic, frankly. I was not making
generic statements. I have made very specific predictions and I have been
right all along.” Maybe so, but he does not sound too happy about it,
frankly.
Money
Central: Ten people who predicted the financial crisis
While the experts of economy squabble over trivial, dissected charts and data, let them criticize Roubini and go back to listening to Bob Brinker.
In 2001, my freind an underwriter for Countrywide told me the recklesss lending someday cause a real estate collapse like house of cards.
Bob Edgren, Careml, USA
I agree with Mr. Roubini. I have come across his name often and have learned to respect his opinion/analysis of the economic situation. Not to say that he is always 100% correct, but that he has a good handle on the current situation. Thus, I pay attention to what he says.
Shirley Morine, Honolulu, USA
When a CDO or ABS, for example, is set up the fees of the rating agency to rate the notes are paid by the issuer (arranger really as it is their deal and they set up the SPV). Raters want to please their clients. The raters have changed their models as a result.
PSF, London, UK
Some one else who predicted the credit crisis and most of what's happened since: Hugo Bouleau in his book "The Final Crash" published in March 2007. See www.finalcrash.com
richard, london, uk
Economists amuse me by trying to make their trade sound worthy by using phrases such as 'slaughter', 'blood bath' ets. The current situation is as a result of boring little incompetents not Rambo.
Michael, Bolton,
It was Mike Ruppert not Nouriel Roubini who first predicted the financial crisis that stems from our hopelessly monetary system. This has everything to do with peak oil. Read more about below.
http://www.fromthewilderness.com
http://www.mikeruppert.blogspot.com/
Mandi, Portland, USA
The UK economy is by far the sickest of the sick. The Brown/Darling partnership in further idiotic measures signals a run on the Pound. Failing to concentrate on cutting back Government Spending, then increasing borrowings to SPEND SPEND SPEND verges on lunacy. No Money, No Spending is sensible act.
Mike, Edinburgh, Scottish Republic
I am suprised at the disdain from some, towards Professor Roubini? Especially from those that claim they have predicted the same economic flaws and failures. Is it that, you need to funnel your anger and frustration about the economic tidal wave dismantling life for all of us, at the messenger?
Francesca, California,
He may have been prescient.... but so have many others. If you forecast disaster, sooner or later you will be right. But sooner rather than later shows a more acute feeling for sentiment. I don't believe this guy was any better than anyone else...he just was more pessimistic.
tone, cambridge,
In primary school, fifty years ago, as we studied the story of Joseph, a teacher explained that "seven fat years" were followed by "seven lean years" and that this was a normal economic cycle. The boom and bust was as related as night and day. The perils of "usury" were covered in another lesson !
russ cook, leicester, england
Yes I agree with Roubini. In 1991 when India about to go bust because India had just a week funds only Mr.Rao then Indian PM has to bail out Indian economy. So with Dr Manmohan Singh worked out the Indian economy opening up. Mr.Rao in one of his speeches predicted economic problems
Dr G Balakrishnan PhD(Law), mumbai, India
Is this the end of capitalism and USA?
martin, camberley, uk
To J Mesa, Just to remind you sir/madam, the Bible clearly states 'that there shall be scoffers and people walking after their own lusts'. Christ will come back sooner than you may imagine and what will you say to Him when you meet Him.
C Mein, Dungannon, Northern Ireland
@FINBAR TAGGIT
If you and many others have 'echoed' what Roubini said, surely he must have said it first.
Good luck to you
Ken 'Kenny' Kenwright, cph, denmark
Roubini is an opportunist. Nothing he has said is new and has been echoed by many other people including myself. He has a great PR team. Good luck to him.
Finbar Taggit, Mayfair, London, UK
2.75% foreclosure rate in US. 6.41% delinquent according to Mortgage Bankers Assoc. report of Sept 5, 2008. Ask, why is the market in turmoil for a below 3% foreclosure rate? Over 9 in 10 mortgages on time. Who is really making this money? Look beyond these "analysts" for answers.
Joe Ville, Baltimore, USA
Hey Don, Christ can't come back, he does not have the cash and he could not get a credit card!
J, Mesa, USA
Remember in the day, there was a saying shouted from the TV:
"NO CREDIT NO PROBLEM!"
?
PAT, RAFTER TN, USA
*Look forward to more unemployment.
*Look forward to more home foreclosures.
*Look forward to more federal corruption.
*Look forward to more taxes.
*Look forward to a nuclear Iran and an attack on Israel.
*Look forward to less money to retire on.
*Less trust
*Less rights
Christ is coming!
Don Robinson, Salem, USA
History will not be kind to Mr. Greenspan. He was supposed to have been the adult chaparone in a room full of teenagers. Instead he provided the intoxicant of 1 per cent interest rates and everyone got loaded. The hangover is going to be horrific and there is no one more responsible than Easy Al.
Buzz, Lilburn, Ga
You guys blaming the Community Reinvestment Act are only partially right. It did play a small role.
A much bigger role was played by the private financial industry which was not under CRA and not adequately regulated. Simply put, we forgot the lessons from the Great Depression.
Justin, Washington, DC, USA
If Obama is Pres then Roubini could be right. Otherwise the US can and will "drill" the world out of this crisis and the prophet of doom can go back to sleep.
Deborah Gold, Humble Texas, USA
Mr Roubini, what makes you interesting is the size of
your ank balance. My law of economics , losers pay for
winners. People like you get to sit in the sun whilst the
rest lose their pension; another recessionary factor to
shove in your equation.
Many people have predicted it. ..So What?
M .Walker., Nr. Bromsgrove., Worcs.
is this same economist advising mc cain?
thaddeus b bilicki, jamestown, us
The skyrocketing oil prices Dr. Doom predicts are nonsense. As the economy falters the demand for oil sharply decreases. Simple supply and demand as we are seeing currently. Oil producing countries like Venezuela and Russia are badly hurting and can't cut production enough to offset low demand.
Greg, Boston, MA
What is very impressive about Nouriel Roubini is that he was talking about a severe recession due to subprime mortgages several years ago. He got the mechanism, cause and effect of the current crisis right. On CNBC TV in the summer of 2006 he was yelling "look at the data" when arguing his point.
Wellington, Bellmore, USA
culpability is not the issue.We must have a special prosecutor to uncover the criminally negligent behavior of the inventors of the credit default swap concept and hold them ACCOUNTABLE CRIMINALLY as a warning to future greedy wall street players.
Watch out for the 43 trillion unfunded medicare $
marty fish, new york, USA
If folks had taken him seriously 4 years ago, yes, they would have been "in a foetal position for years" and would have taken all their money out of the stock market. Guess what? One would be richer today if one took all one's money out of the market 4 years ago. Heck, even 10 years ago.
james, austell, usa
"Given such cataclysmic talk, some experts fear his new-found influence may be a bad thing in such troubled times"
Ya, we need clueless happy talk economists, not Dr. Doom.
Smitty, Los Angeles, CA USA
Anyone here familiar with Elliot Wave theory?
Institutional bankers buy/sell massive shares BACK AND FORTH TO EACH OTHER, first to skim the cream for themselves (AIG and the luxury spas, for example); don't believe anyone on TV - they are shills; housing will drop INTENSELY over the next year.
zucco, ft myers, usa
Clinton and Greenspan have some culpability in this financial mess that the world is experiencing.
Gil, Arlington Heights, USA
I am predicting that an economic boom will take place. I will continue to say that for the next 30 years and when it happens everyone can talk about what a genius I am.
Rob, Los Angeles,
I've known this was going to happen for last five years, and I've done my best to warn people. Other people, "regular" people as well as other economists have predicted all of this. In fact, some of this was intended to happen. Who decided "Dr. Doom" should get this unwarranted credit and publicity?
Ian Taggert, Los Angeles, USA
It wasn't only Roubini... it was the entire Austrian School.
The funniest line is...
["Banerji questioned Roubini’s assumptions, said they were not based on mathematical models..."]
As is the norm, models fail and the Austrian School (who do not rely on unrealistic models) is correct.
Frank, Atlanta, GA, USA
I am a biochemist and my husbund an electronics engineer. we are not economists and we knew this would happen 2 years ago. We left the UK in march 2007 and we are not suffering the global effect yet because this is a country with a small economy.
Mrs England, Patagonia, Argentina
What week is this going to be? I work in the financial industry and would like to go ahead and plan my vacation
Rudie, seattle, usa
Bush White House indeed. Congress long ago set the stage by forcing loans be given to high credit risk individuals. that and the unethical sub prime instruments that even the experts did not understand (but accepted) were the major culprits. but the root causes - political expediency and greed...
Doug, St Charles,
The Bush White House has brought the world's most powerful nation, to a point of crisis, Dave, G, US
Incuments to go ALL congress!!
does SUBPRIME LOANS AND FANNIE MAE mean anything to you
who sounded the alarm McCain !
who stopped him Democrats!!
Obama 2nd highest recepient to take from Fan M
mt, orange county, USA
The White House did this all by itself, huh? Comical.
Bobby, Memphis, USA
How about where we would be without the quadrillions our new landlord Uncle Sam dumped on us?This"intervention has been going on for years and years-all smoke and mirrors to keep the wheels on the wagon.No gold standars since '71.37 years of a false,propped up economy that has to collapse.Voila'!
Lesia, Nashville, USA
"The Bush White House has brought the world's most powerful nation, to a point of crisis, possibly even to the brink of catastrophe. All Incumbents, must Go
Dave, Garibaldi, US
Timing wrong? I don't think so. the reality on the ground in the US was as how he said it was and when he said it was. It has been the dual efforts of governments and the press that has choked off information preventing citizens from moving their money in 401ks to safety or sold their homes.
Abigail, silver spring, USA
The institution that should be shut down for a week is the US Congress. Spineless decisions to only increase spending have resulted in a world wide vote of no confidence in Congress' ability to stabilize the economy be becoming more prudent in its expenditures. With an economic 911, HELP!
David, Atlanta, USA
Actually, the quickest way to correct this problem would be
to slash taxes and fees 50% across the board in all the
major industrial countries, putting the money back into the
real economy where it belongs. However, this will not
be done. Our rulers are not willing to give up their power
to save us.
peter quinn, newport, usa
He was far from the only one though. There were more of us, though it was an unpopular view at the time and generally those who warned about the unsustainable bubble were ignored. it's hard to stop a gravy train of that size.
But shutting down the stock market for a week is not a bad idea.
Kerome, London, UK
Do you not feel so much repetative coverage of this resession is hiding more important things that should be reported in the news?It may be tough for us for the next few years,but what of those starving or in war torn parts of the world! It is either resession or Ross/Brand or even X-Factor,WHY?
Dave Farmer, Broxbourne, England
Banerji's criticism of Roubini:
"He kept changing his justification: first the trade deficit, the current account deficit, then the oil price spike, then the housing downturn ... "
These are all related. We don't manufacture anything, so the US uses credit to buy imports. Home loans R credit.
David, San Diego, USA
Great, he's been crying about imminent disaster for longerthan necessary, but he offers no more solutions than those that got us here.
shokk, Hillsborough NJ, US
Most of this was due to the subprime loan mess. Started by jimmy carter and the "community reinvestment act", fueled by clinton repealing glass steagall.. and made nuclear by the likes of Barney Frank, Pelosi and Reid. why these people are not in prison is beyond me.
bob, USA,
Anytone can predict recession and other problems and if you do so for long enough you will eventually be right. Every recession or crash there is someone who 'predicted it'. Usually once they have got it right, everything subsequent to that is wrong.
neil Murphy, Cromer,
Anirvan Banerji, economist with the New York-based economic Cycle Research Institute says "It’s not enough to know what will happen in some point in the distant future"
Er - yes it is.
It's a sight better than the world blundering into economic meltdown isn't it Anirvan?
Doh, economists eh
Dale, Australia,
The problem with prophets of doom is that if they say the world is going to end, eventually they will be right - this does not actually mean they have any great insight.
Peter, London,
A commoner with no education could of told you it was all going to end and as time went on the likely hood of iy happening went up exponentially
dave, mtl, Canada
Roubini is obviously a good economist but like some economists their predictions are based on how many books they're trying to sell.
The present Wall St. problem is one of fear. Fear that if Obama is elected Wall St will be relegated to an economic wasteland of excessive taxes 'to spread the wealth'
Geoff, Duxbury, USA
Unfortunately, I think this Roubini fella is right in the main (frankly!). UK house prices will at least half from their high point last summer and the stock market will fall another 30 or 40 percent and not recover for about 5 years.
However, when recovery does come investors will make a fortune.
John Thorley, Newcastle, England
Even a broken clock is accuarte twice a day
pete, new york,
The world has become used to false talk and platitudes - everything has to have a little twinkle and a happy-ever-after-ending. Nouriel Roubini speaks 'frankly', i.e. truthfully - skipping the twinkles and happy endings. He is/has been completely right - but most of all he dares to say how it is.
Mary Kapadia, Montreal, Canada
On the up side economic recession will help stop global warming. Every cloud has a silver lining!
John Thorley, Newcastle, England
May God bless you for your insight Mr. Roubini. The whole economical system is based on corruption, lies, fraud, cheating, and usury. All ungodly traits. That is the reason for the suffering. And its only just begun. I hope it degrades even further and bring the money grubbers back down to earth.
C.C., Miami, USA
To Ricky-Staunton - I understand how you feel, but the US economy, and most others, depends overwhelmingly on consumer spending. Slow that only slightly and you have a recession - a bit more and you're into a depression. Sensible spending must continue or we all end up dining at soup kitchens.
Padraig, Perth, Australia
Housing prices have to fall much more so people can afford 20% down on a house because PMI is gone broke.. Housing prices have only gone down about 30% and need to go down 50 to 75% from peaks for people to afford large down payments on houses.
Alvin, Ada Michigan, usa
It is similar to predicting that the planet will warm to the extent that it will cause cataclysmic events, and that it is humanly preventable. But when?
Holman, Dallas, USA
The problem with the 'mega-bears', in my own experience, is that they never know when to quit. No market fall is enough, no cataclysm sufficient to satisfy their need to be proven right about imminent Armageddon. And they never call the turn in the market correctly....
conor, Edinburgh, Scotland
The 'economists' should at least have agreed with Dr Roubini four yrs ago that at some point things could get gloomy. If you had agreed with the 'economic experts' that the economy would continue to boom, what will be your position now?
Chika Okeke, Palma de Mallorca, Spain
In 2006 when he predicted that the credit bubble would burst, he was laughed off the stage and mocked. Yet he was only stating the obvious. Its amazing in business how many times you state the obvious to people and they don't listen. Yet again, he is only stating the obvious.
Michael, West Midlands,
He is an academic .So he has predicted a couple of things.However to try to outguess the irrationality of stock markets on a consistent basis is something almost no one has ever done.Not even the great Jesse Livermore.
Markets are the greatest teachers of humility!
James Currie, London, UK
I am generally not impressed with Roubini. He was not alone in predicting this mess. Even I was very pessimistic about the economy for the last two years. The low interest rates, the "stimulous", the bailouts were like adding gasoline to the fire. Roubini was right, so what?
Bill, Prescott, AZ, USA
So this guys says something, it comes true. Now he's the economic profit? That's like I go to vegas, bet my life savings on "red" and now I'm the roulette god?
This smacks of hysteria.
C'mon people... this is exactly the kind of ridiculous thinking that got us into this in the first place.
Nathan, San Jose,
Aloha. First, a metaphysical answer: "God, that's GREAT! Please show us the blessings in this situation ... and hurry! We are safe, we are loved, and all is well."
Second, a physical solution: end prohibition of the Cannabis hemp plant; plant the 'tree of life' to heal all the nations now.
Roger Christie, Hilo, United States
Also not mentioned here is the threat of an Obama victory in the USA presidential election. This will be perceived as a political cataclysm . A black politician of modest intellectual abilities to function as the American President! A "generational" error of Demobrats texting on their i-phones.
Payne, Honolulu,
I had a very strong hunch, at best, that the bubble was going to deflate several years ago too.
What most forget now is that this entire thing has really no precedent in financial history, nor the effects coming down.
There is going to be a future, but the end of an era is here, now.
J.F. , Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Nouriel is a wise man with boundless integrity. Rather than criticize him, dear readers, you might consider heeding his warnings. He's no phony.
andrew blechman, Duesseldorf, Germany
Blame the messenger, if you wish. Stick your heads in the sand, or what is left of your wealth in gold. I'm investing in seed stock, hand tools, and do-it-yourself books covering farming, wood/metal craft, flora and forna identification, and basic survival techniques.
cj, Lutz, USA
The ultimate test of the Roubini doctrine is your own 401K. He's on the money if your 401 has become a 01K, a 1K and you're fast being left with the just the Oh K! What next? US default and currency collapse? If I were the IMF, I'd be booking Roubini for the next luncheon speech and buying Gold.
Steve, New York, USA
Its nice to hear such a smart professor guess the fall in word markets so accurately. I would love to see him follow up in predicting when the bottom will happen, and when the economic situation around the world will be on the rise once again, and we can perhaps call him something like Dr. Fortune.
mark davidson, London, UK
The Fed should raise interest rates, Having them too low for so long helped bring about the crisis we are currently in. The Fed has pumped too many dollars into the system over the years and it is devaluing the worth of the dollar and will increase the rate of inflation. We gotta cut spending!
Ricky, Staunton, USA
Roubini is no prophet. All one has to do is read in Wikipedia about the previous 5 depressions in the USA before 1929 and they all started the same way: A big bank with bad loans, it's too big to fail and fails, and the collapse begins. All Roubini did was read history while we were in denial.
Nick hronis, Hollywood, USA
I think he was right with the "Subprime meltdown" but where was he in 1999 to see the dot.com crisis. I am not an economist or I don't even understand the sciencific predictions, but I also predicted the lending practices future faiieurs four years ago.
George E. Kantor, Teques, USA
He was far from the only person predicting economic turmoil from the mortgage-backed security fiasco. He is just the best self-promoter.
Stan Lee, London, UK
Let me give you a look at what is coming.
Inflation like you never would believe.
As the Fed prints money out of thin air..
and we go from 10 Trillion in the red to 15 trillion
next year.. The price of goods will skyrocket.
Thomas M Sawyer, hayward, us
relax, these securities have homes behind them. ive been going to moneyandmarkets.com for a couple years and this was all laid out with the numbers. get back in the market when the dow is around 7500. the credit card bill is due and a couple years of frugal governments, we have hope. unless bho wins
DaveHansen, Pittsburgh, usa
I just want to know who made it o.k for someone to get a 3 year ARM without requiring a sosial security number, down payment or credit check as Joann stated. If this is correct let's closely look at who was not thinking. Why was this allowed to happen?
jane, oak park, usa
My Economics 101 professor said: "An economist can either forecast what will happen or when it will happen - not both." Dr. Roubini was 100% right of what would happen and about 20% right when it would happen - - - a hell a lot better than nearly 95% in his profession.
Joe, Newport Beach, CA, USA
Trying to buy a house WITHIN MY BUDGET, I saw lenders giving mortgages to those who had judgments and no firm job. I watched as house prices rose till I was unable, with my court job of over ten years to afford a home of my own. The fall was assured and IT WILL GET WORSE.
Mary, Tulare, USA
The market may continue to fall. You need no degree or grand name like Dr. Doom to predict this. What goes up always comes down. Many of us learned this from a small rubber ball when we were just children. The markets will return.
Telling it like it is
The regular guy
Sean Klein, newburgh, USA
Put me in the Me too column". I have predicted for years, ever since the US started sending jobs and manufacturing out of country, That the economic bubble would crash". Sure the subprime mortages were a factor, but not the root cause. The root cause was outsourcing our manufacturing.
Lowell Shortes, Yorktown, USA
With all due kudos to Roubini, I fear that, having now hit drudge, this article along with all the other articles just like it, is simply adding to the disaster. Why do I never read about Roubini's supposed "answers to the crisis"?
Smith, New York, USA
The recession is already here. They have just been cooking the books and using things such as the massive oil company profits to deny it.
Ra, Beverly Hills, U.S.
The reason stock markets in the US continue to tank is that investors are bailing out because they fear an Obama presidency.
Patrick C., Irvine, CA, USA
I saw this coming a while back. I got into cash fairly quick while markets were still up. I sold a house in Houston for top dollar and moved to the country where I had bought land. All of my major debt was paid off. The only major expense I have coming up is a new vehicle of some kind. Buy Gold!
Marc Boyd, Brookshire, TX, USA
I'm sick of hearing our politicians tell us we have to bail out the failed mortgages. Help out the people and their 401K's. People who have lived within their means and now see the government raping the treasury are fed up. We need to vote out Dodd, Pelosi, Barney Frank and all the other crooks .
Tracy, rockaway, USA
That isn't the worst of it; troubles come in clusters that will include things other than just financial problems. One should think about what happened during the years following the 1929 market crash. The world will never be the same again - that we can be sure of.
Ed, colorado springs, USA
He was an advisor to Presidents Clinton in the late 1990's?
It was 1999 when Clinton created this mess by forcing federaly insured banks to issue high risk mortgages or face heavy fines from the federal governemnt.
Monty, New Castle , USA
It is always easy to criticize, NOW ... lets hear about solutions oh great one. Hopefully your ideas on the upside, don't take 5 years to materialize like your predictions for doom.
Kevin , santa barbara, USA
The secret to this is that the more people you can convince that a recession/depression is coming the more likely it is to occur. If I said that house prices would half in the next 6 months, and that everyone should sell now.......what would happen if everyone believed me and tried to sell?
Hard Logic, Sydney, Australia
Plenty of us saw this coming, took appropriate steps to prepare and are doing quite well from the collapse, thank you very much.
Read the alternative media: you'll learn all sorts of interesting things!
suraci, Plymouth, UK
in any business plan written to get a loan from a bank or investment group, immediate is 1 to 3 years. I would say that makes him spot on.
But all he needed to do was read the congressional record. Ron Paul of Texas has been explaining for years and years that every boom must follow with a bust.
Mark, Lisle, IL,
People would have listened if he had a metal mask and a green cape.
JPG, Corvallis, USA
Other Jews in the past predicted this time of tribulation. Read about it in the Holy Bible. Only God can save us now.
Steve, Springfield , USA
As a former corporate economist (now retired), I am under
the impression that those people not in favor of Dr. Doom
seems simply jealous of his sudden fame. Now is the time
for them to pay their attention to his words of wisdom.
Gene Kim, Brooklyn, NY, USA
yeah Denis, Annapolis, USA and when Obama is elected really look for the U.S. economy to tank. increasing taxes (especially capital gains) on 401k and elderly pensions are going to cause people to spend less and less. plus you have Obama promising "special" taxes on corporations... what a joke!
eval, wilmington, usa
Anybody know if he attended Bilderberg meetings? Seriously they've become so brazen they don't even try to hide their intentions anymore. Welcome to the new world of "Disaster Capitalism"
Cory, Corpus Christi, USA
So the economic powers that be say that he's pathetic. But several Hollywood producers and politicians consult a psychic regulary on business deals. Who's the hypocrite?
T, Kansas City, US
On the average, someone had to be right and someone had to be wrong. This is an example of the "halo" effect when you highlight the person who was right and dismissing all that were wrong. Laid end-to-end, most economists would never reach a conclusion.
stephen richard levine, Los Angeles, California, USA
No. The government over spends and overporks.
Cut the US budget across ending the Department of Education, highway beautification, etc. stop all the pork barrel spending and cut 25% per year .
End the bloated IRS by taxing a flat 15% across the board tax to businesses and individuals.
Joe L., Candia, USA
Markets have lost confidence in their governments ability to control this wildfire. It will not stop now until all the excessive credit and leverage has been immolated. The only question is how impotent government officials will exercise their bravado to save us, and how much worse it will get.
Don, Houston, USA
I agree and predict that this downturn will continue until the DOW equals the value of one ounce of gold at $!,600.00 US. At that time, the US economy will stagnate laterally for a number of years.
Thomas S. Stein MBA, Neenah, USA
the market may be in for more pain, but unless governments respond incorrectly, we will be okay.
Higher trade barriers (Fair Trade), High taxes are the wrong way to go.
Correct regulation, not necessarily more, and correct fiscal policy by the govt. will allow the free market to correct this mess.
Jef, Chicago, United States
Dr. Roubini is spot on. Kudlow on CNBC looks like an economist on "training wheels" compared to Dr. Roubini. CNBC is nothing more than a mouthpiece for the corporate scum of America. Capitalism is beginning to look more and more immoral. No wonder why Obama is going to win.
Denis, Annapolis, USA
Average 12 month performance following bottom of bear market: 25%. It does not take a high IQ to succeed as an investor...rather, it takes the right temperment...the temperment to go against the grain. Just enter GTC orders to buy your favorites at a 10% discount. But, don't cry if unfilled.
Tom, Boston,
Roubini is no fool. Anyone watching the Fed's economic policy when the dot com bubble burst, knew the plot of this movie.
Sensible folks (who could do simple math) said "Uh oh... they're shifting exuberance into housing now".
Academics critical of Roubini, are either idiots, or just can't do math.
Dasman, Kansas City, U.S.
I predicted in 1959 that if everyone acted like idiots, the sky would fall. So my timing was not precise. Whatever.
MITmike, granada hills, USA/ California
I've saved bundles being mostly out of the market having listened to and paid attention to Roubini and other doomsayers.
The evidence, if one took the time to look at it, sounded compelling. I took action. I assume those that didn't have lost major money.
Bill, Birmingham, USA
3 billion people live on less than $2.50/day, we have enough oil/gas/coal/solar to last for thousands of years, we have excess labor, factory space, technology- clearly, monetary policy is the problem. October, 2005, Roubini was worried about inflation, while Kudlow WAS warning of Fed rate hikes...
Dirk, Saint Charles, US
His prediction was just common sense, as a retired real estate agent now farming and a prior loan officer, I told my son 2 yrs ago not to buy a home because there would be a total collapse of the system. Eighteen months ago I closed out all of our bank accounts. Learn from history!!!
Pat, Gerber, United States
Karl Marx predicted the downfall of capitalism in the early 1900s.
The Islamic Jihadists have predicted the demise of the West for years.
Obama the Arab Messiah will bring us socialism and "spread the wealth" like a true Communist.
Can I return to Scotland, the land of my ancestors?
Gary, Austin, TX, USA
The guy predicted a once-in-a-lifetime systemic meltdown and major-bank failure to within a few months of its commencing. That qualifies him as a seer, in my book. I have learned so much from following Roubini's commentary over the last couple of years.
Adam, Kelowna, Canada
It is only a matter of time before the machines take over.
I, for one, welcome our new metallic overlords.
Willaim Tashkent, Chelshire, GB
A Brit, Peter Warburton, was predicting that the every growing explosion of worldwide credit -- corporate, personal, and government -- was unsustainable. He wrote a book called "Debt and Delusion" which I fortuitously picked up and read in 2002. His analysis was correct.
Jonathon Quincy, Denver, USA
The guy speaks realism. Knowing when a bubble will top is not easy. And other economists and financial wheels who have been critiquing him look silly; they haven't the courage.
Dominique, Baguio,
Now that it appears EVERYONE in the world wants to hear from Dr Doom, and the stench of fear engulfs all of lower Manhattan, we have reached the bottom. By the time the new President is elected, we will have a firm bottom and the new President will get the credit for "fixing" the economy. Absurd
Corban, Salt Lake City, USA
So much for counting on mathematical models ... Formalization is important, but Economic intuition, trained on deep Historical knowledge is king. Roubini's work is not meant to guide investor's short term decision, but government's long term policies. He is brilliant.
Carla, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Roubini's forecasting is not meant to be a guide for short term investment decisions, but for long term government policies. Among few, he understands formalization will never override Economic intuition trained on deep knowledge of Economic History. He is brilliant. Frankly, cheers to him!
Carla, Sao Paulo, Brazil
who is going to stop the rollercoaster. Who is calling for an IMMEDIATE halt in all derivatives trading, the halt of all unregulated energy trading . That would be many individuals including Antonia Juhasz. Does Big Biz listen
CMyers, Maryland,
I hadn't heard Roubini's name until a month ago and I'm not an economist. I've always been interested in economics as a hobby and I was seeing the same things he was. I was telling my friends to learn all they could about derivatives and DCS's. Anyone that did that would see the impending implosion.
Denny, Upland, USA
Calm and common sense are needed. Like Sam Walton said in the '87 crash "it's just numbers on paper". My Dad, RIP, predicted this in '04 & everybody's doing all the wrong things. Socialization will make things worse as will Obama. This crash has_been_orchestrated! Don't sell. Wait it out. No Fear!
Jim, Tulsa, OK, United States
NOW will you listen to Ron Paul? He has, in writing, predicted this for a long time, as well as clearly stating the solutions.
Alan C, Kuching, Malaysia
If America and the world is foolish enough to line up behind Obama, so be it. Load up on short & double short index ETF's. Obama's election is a gift for traders. Short the rallies. A democrat controlled USA is a disaster for the world markets. Might as well profit from collective stupity.
Darren , los angeles, USA
"The response from 'our glorious leader' Obama will be to declare a state of emergency and suspend the constitution (for our benefit)."
Where have you been the past eight years?
Our present "glorious leader" and his advisers have already dismantled the Constitution with the Patriot Act.
Hellga, AZ, USA
Dr. Doom may be right about the ongoing momentum of the crisis. For many it is a 'death by a thousand paper cuts." A little off real estate, a little off the 401K, a little off payment on the credit cards, a little unemployment . . . . ." Pretty soon you are hemmoraged out.
Bob Krause, Fairfield, IA, USA
Didn't the former Malaysian Prime Minister Dr Mahathir predict the same? When he bailed out the Malaysian economy during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, he was called a 'Financial Pariah'. Visit his blog chedet.com
Nasran Harun, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia
We can try the apparently popular approach of the imminent U.S. administration: socialism-lite at home, appeasement abroad, elective defeat in Iraq and Afghanistan, high taxes for entitlements to non-taxpayers, and a dash of censorius one-party rule. Drink deeply.
sido, La Verne, US
You know, it is funny that when a person has an understanding of history and good common sense that he is dismissed until the facts can't be denied. Roubini has seen what many of us knew was coming for a long time. Greed and bust runs in cycles and the time to pay the piper was long over due.
howard donnell, Allentown, United States
Ron Paul predicted this mess years ago.
it's a dam shame Ron Paul isn't in McCain's place.
Ron Paul offered an amazing economic plan and as a banker and investment banker for over 10 years I supported Ron Paul's plan.
McCain would be smart to name Paul as Sec of the Treasury
Darel , Ronaoke, USA
It warned that “ a national bank” might go bust, and that, as trouble deepened, investment banks and hedge funds might collapse. And a large metor might hit the Earth and kill us all and that might lead to a totally new species as the dominant form of life on this planet.
might is big word.
scott, crystal lake, usa
I don't think there is anything exceptional about a prediction of subprime meltdown in 2006. The writing was on the wall in 2004. The future of the economy is very good.
JCH, Houston, USA
these times always bring out the lunatic elements.They can only drool at the prospect of economic "end times"...a slight over dose of economic fanaticism.
truth is frankly that nobody knows a darn thing about where this ends and what will happen next.eventuallly we lose it all and go back to work.
marcel, montreal, canada
Elitists beholden to elitists. It's not like Roubini was either the first or the only person with the "prescience" to see things were heading for the cliff. Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Peter Schiff and countless other investors have been advising for years that the U.S.'s growth model was unsustainable.
Reuben Thompson, seattle, usa
Heavy gravity economist need merely proclaim calamity long enough and they will get airtime. Housing sales are already up. Lower petrol prices are kicking 300-400 million PER DAY back into the US economy. Save an OPEC embargo, Roubini will be another dour savant come mid November.
Neil, Huntingdon, USA
I think it is fantastic that the whole thing is tanking the final nail will be when the idots vote Obama into the White House.
Thats when the depression starts. Riots. It will be one hell of a fall. I am glad to say that I have lived through the best of times and now I get to see the end.
Shelby, nipomo, usa
Roubini was all over CNBC last week. The hosts were amazed at how the market would go down when he spoke.
Reid, Waterbury, USA
Over a decade ago I coined the phrase, "If you're not driving your company or country over the cliff into insolvency, they won't let you steer."
Can you say "treason"?
Paul T. Mill, Gold Beach, Oregon, USA
Barney Frank and his friends have "socially engineered" us to the brink. They knew that they were allowing bad loans but what they did not count on is that their actions would lead to a total collapse of confidence. They pushed till they reached the "Tipping Point", I think it is going to get worse.
Richard Adams, Rio Oso, USA
Hanging on in quiet desperation.
It's the English way.
Serr, Smyrna, USA
Jim Cramer predicted all of this a couple of years ago as well, even predicted the exact month it would begin. If you followed all the advice Jimbo's given over the years to a 'T', you'd be so rich you'd have someone else putting your pants on for you each morning.
Cro Magnon, Chicago, Illinois
When sellers abound, there's plenty of greedy buyers out there (Fri case in point) capitulation doesn't appear to be in the cards anytime soon... just too much cash on the sidelines buying these cheap multiples - that isn't exactly a recipe for halting US markets - greed will win.
Scott Marikis, Nine Mile Falls, USA
Now we know the 'crises' Biden refers to. The response from 'our glorious leader' Obama will be to declare a state of emergency and suspend the constitution (for our benefit)
Richard, Coweta,
Problem is too many fear mongers running around. You know if there are enough of them, this will become a self-fulfilling prophesy. The depth of this economic crisis is the result of perception more so than actual financial losses. Paper losses to big investors has been interpreted as financial ruin
Rob, Duluth, GA, USA
Roubini - after years of being wrong, and costing investors that followed his opinions then significant lost profits - he is finally right. Reminds me of the broken watch that eventually has the correct time. Listen at your own risk. Tick tock - the time will change.
Dude, Portland, USA
The economists who all laughed at Roubini were born dumb and they will die dumb.
The ones who criticize him for being one year off in his timing are even more ridiculous, as if they could predict anything correctly during the same decade.
Carlos Moran, Chicago, USA
Predicting disaster is not difficult. Eventually you will be right and look like a genius even though you were wrong numerous times before. The trick is to suggest constructive actions to prevent or minimize the damage. The man has offered nothing in way of remedy.
Russell, Milan , US
Taking 10% wealth from the upper 1 % will not solve the US problem let alone the world. If Trump said that J.S. in LA, we are all in trouble. I did not know Trump believed in socialism.
S. Hill, Elizabeth City, NC, USA
Forget taking a position in gold--I have taken a postion in canned goods and bomb shelters.
H.H. Thompson, Honolulu, U.S.
I said this would happen in 2006 when Alan " I know it all" Greenspan said " The housing market is too hot and I am going to cool it down"
With no reguard for the effect his actions would have ; he raised interest rates which tipped the first domino.
Thank Alan......
Terry, Atlanta, USA
Mr Roubini is correct and is also correct about the coming debacle.
We are about to see a financial meltdown ,the likes of which the WORLD has never seen. Come Decmeber and January we will see a bloodbath in the financial world and the "Golden rule" will prove true.
Mike Clayton, Sandwich,N.H., United States
Doesn't take a genius to figure out that dipsticks in the US congress forceing banks to loan money to people who can't pay it back, then packageing them for resale would eventually collapse. More socialism will only prolong the problem. What's funny is the dummies haven't changed the law yet.
Garry, Melcher, USA
If anyone would like to really know the future of this economy just Goggle "The Zeitgeist Movement" and watch their film. Good luck , That's if they post this.
Mike Matteo, Glouscester, USA
If you want to see something impressive read this 1998 essay from economist Fred Foldvary. He not only predicted everything that has taken place over the past decade, he nailed down 2008 as the exact year a global economic crash would take place!
progress.org/fold48.htm
Jason Steiner, Las Vegas, USA
The Worldwide DEBT is the problem.
The best solution for the present economic crisis would be a REBOOT or restart of the entire debt system for the ENTIRE WORLD.
300 characters too few to xplain
ALLENCHARLESREPORT
allencharles, Panama City, USA
Well predicting and fixing are two different things aren't they? OK, he predicted right. Now what? What we need is not the guy who predicted this mess but the guy who can fix it or at least cover it up. The next move on the chess board is a Knight. In other words: A big war.
Gary, San Antonio, USA
The lesson to be learned is that you can't combine the basic laws of economics with political correctness mumbo jumbo. We are now paying the price , and unfortunately the upcoming election seems to indicate that we will continue to pay the price. We have a long road ahead.
Phil F., Pioneer, United States
Ross Perot was right.
kuldeep, philadelphia, usa
Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
James, Austin, TX, USA
Roubini is right.
What politicians aren't saying is how we are going to get out of this: living within our means, not borrowing, working hard, saving and being thrifty.
There is no magic bullet.
ian, mission viejo,ca, usa
I've watched Mr Roubini on Larry Kudlow's show before he stopped having him on I guess because of his right on the money foresight.. The so-called intellectual financial guru's don't like Doomsday predictions. I believe he's right we haven't seen the worse yet.
Ed Hebert, San francisco, USA
I saw this coming four years ago when Dominion Homes was trying to build a housing development in every corn field in Ohio. Pulled all of my money out of the stock market 18 months ago. Now I'm thinking of dumping it all back in, because the only thing driving the market down now is fear.
Rick, Columbus,
There are no Economic Gods, only Gurus and for now, Roubini is correct, though most are wrong most of the time. Don't look at the timing as that can be influenced in many ways by many quarters, but look at the fundamentals and the principles.
Karl Lingenfelder, San Diego, USA
There is only who predicted a nonlinear transition, prospectively the exact interday high for the Wilshire on 11 October 2007, and who is attempting to define the exact equity final low. There is an intrinsic order to the macroeconomic system that defines the laws of a new science.
g lammert, Palm Beach , USA
But...but I don't understand. The government told us we aren't in a recession yet and the experts on CNBC said that the housing market will start rising soon, and this is a good time to buy stock because they are so low.
Jim Bryant, Dayton, USA
Want to fix the financial problem in the U.S.? Simple. 3 steps:
1. Fire Barney Frank
2. Fire Nancy Pelosi
3. Fire Harry Ried
Problem solved.
Juanito Verde, Tulsa, United States
There will be pain. It is unavoidable. Everyone will do the most natural things to protect themselves: consume less, insulate their homes, turn down the heat, drive less and eat-at-home. This is going to be grim.
Rene, Ottawa, Canada
i have been predicting the disaster since 2003, like him i got the timing well out. i have studied why we never went in to recession then. the reason was interest rate cuts and tax credits in the U S. this fiscal policy deflected it. the U S has nothing left to hold the dam and the water is rising.
mike mckeary, paisley, scotland
I think he is an optimist.
Tim Kinnaird, Toronto, Canada
Donald Trump's one good idea: a 10% asset charge-off on the wealthiest 1% of Americans. All nations should apply this immediately to pay down their debts and to shore up their banks. The rich will earn their money back and the rest will suffer less.
Jeff Softley, L.A., USA
Sell your stocks and buy Forever Stamps from the USPS
Dow Jones, New York, United States
This is probably something I would say if I had a huge short position to unwind...
Shane, Gloucester, USA
Should there continue to be no legal penalty for irresponsibility of top executives of the largest investment banks, private lending institutions, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, House and Senate Finance committees? I refer here to money and power self-enrichment while transfering risk to the taxpayers.
Mike Selnick, Reston VA, US
Maybe he knew because he helped engineer it.
Kim, Dallas, USA
It is rather impressive he was so accurate in the results of the mortgage scandal. However, anyone with common sense and a base understanding of mortgages on financial markets saw this situation coming. However, most thought it wouldn't be this awesome. It is easy to predict recession.
David, Columbia, Missouri
The economists of the Austrian School have been warning about the deleterious effects of credit expansion by central banking for decades. In fact, former US presidential candidate Ron Paul has been talking about this monetary crisis for years. Keynesianism is untenable with the real world.
Greg, Saint Paul, US
Ron Paul, a Congressman from Texas and former Republican Presidential candidate has been warning of this far longer , and Peter Schiff of Europacific Capital warned of the crash prior to 2006. Both have plenty of You tube videos to attest. The future is not bright.
matt, Jim Thorpe, USA
"all governments have to do is cut interest rates, buy up insolvent banks, guarantee bank deposits and hand out tax rebates. Then all will be well."
And then there was "The One." Imagine Jimmy Carter vs the world economic meltdown and a nuclear armed Iran. Oh boy, we are in it now.
Brian, Indy, USA
Since he was very good at predicting this crisis, what would he do to stem the economic collapse from growing??
Rob, New York,
Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn predicted all of this in his 1978 Harvard Graduation Address. East and West have cancer of the soul.
Steve Eugster, Spokane, USA
I agree with Dee.
David, , USA
There is another voice out there that has been saying the same...Lyndon LaRouche. For years I've followed him and his Executive Intelligence Review postings, somewhat on the fringe, but now on a weekly basis. I'd have to say, indeed the worst is yet to come.
Michael, Monroe, LA, USA
And in the middle of all this Obama wants to spend billions more of future generations money, make no plans for energy independence except windmills and conservation; but to save the day his answer is to confiscate wealth from hard working succesful business people to make others more dependent.
Dee, Arroyo Grande, USA
The argument by Banerji that Roubini didn't get the timing exactly right is a poor one. Roubini saw the fundamentals leading to a crisis, but that doesn't make him able to predict exactly when the bottom finally would fall out--much of which depended on future actions by major players.
James Deppeler, Brielle, New Jersey, USA
I second Joann, Marana, USA
Back in 2005 I used to listen to financial AM radio and all the rave was ballon and interest only mortages.
In 2006 I read a detailed report in USA today about how about 60% of polled respondants said they had no idea what kind of mortgage they had.
buck, Florida, USA
One doesn't have to be a rocket scientist to predict this financial crisis, I did 4 years ago to when I heard that the 3 yr ARM, did NOT require a social security number, down payment, or credit check.
Joann, Marana, USA
Roubini is only one of many to scream out warnings two and more years ago. Others were Stiglitz from the World Bank. Walker - the US comptroller General. Ron Paul, Catherine Austin Fitts, Paul Craig Roberts, Ty Andros, Robert Chapman, Jim Willie and literally thousands of others.
PL, Helensville,
Hard to believe mainstream economics were oblivious to the systemic danger. That is either an intellectual or moral failure, probably both.
There has been several coups conducted by the "knowing", the rescue packages+ deflation are part of that, while the public is wondering what actually happend
alex hoermann, Munich, Germany
They all laughed at Christopher Columbus
When he said the world was round;
They all laughed at Casandra Roubini
saying "frankly, the high's unsound"
He he he, who's got the last laugh,
Ha ha ha, who's got the last laugh,
Ho ho ho, who's got the last laugh now?
Jim, Boston, USA
Roubini is the NEW Dr Doom.
The old Dr Doom is Marc Faber, a doomster for many years before Roubini showed up.
See Faber's website for the Doom and Gloom report:
http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/portalgbd/homegbd.cfm
Henry Barth, Dublin, Ireland
I predicted in a financial paper I wrote in March 2000 that there that there will be a devastating market collapse maybe the worst ever and that we would eventually end up with the most horrendous Depression of all time. Roubini is not alone. I told Charlie Bean some five years ago it was coming.
David P Tolhurst, Bury St Edmunds, UK
Banerji is the one who has some explaining to do. His criticism of Roubini is pathetic. Roubini predicted a meltdown; Banerji said it wouldn't happen. It has happened. So now Banerji is quibbling about dates! It's like identifying a gas leak. Sooner or later it will blow up the house.
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
One big thing that should be done now to restore confidence is take away the scandalous compensations for higher managements of financial institutions. No one at the higher levels is held accountable for the mistakes that have clearly been made. Give the regular investor sight of real change.
Joost, Amsterdam, Netherlands
As an accredited speaker at the IMF conferance in September 2006 policy makers should have at least tested Professor Roubini's economic theories.
Ms Anna Schwartz in an interview supports the proposition that policy makers are still missing the point
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122428279231046053.html
Damien Vaugh , London, UK
I heard about this man on CNBC about two to three years ago. I was impressed by his perceptions of economic scenerios. I believed him and that belief saved me from doom. I managed to get out of the many investments over the last two years. I am grateful to him. He deserves the Nobel prize.
Comoduck, Petaling Jaya, Malaysia
And what exactly did our $700 BILLION dollar handout buy us? LOL, what a joke.
JIff Wright, Winston, US
All booms are followed by busts. Just how deep this one is we do not know as yet. All busts eventually become booms due to the common sense policies that are inherent to them. The key to the depth of this bust is the underlying faith or not in the U.S, economy/currency. Should that be lost, hang on!
michael s. castleton-bridger, montevideo, uruguay
@stephan
Yeah, because that strategy's worked out so well so far. LOL. Look what guaranteeing bank deposits is doing to mortgage funds in Aus for example.
We're about to see the end of the greatest debt-fueled binge in history. It's going to leave us with one hell of a hangover.
Simon, Melbourne, Australia
This man is completely wrong all governments have to do is cut interest rates, buy up insolvent banks, guarantee bank deposits and hand out tax rebates. Then all will be well.
Stephan, Sydney, Australia