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Britain’s economy shrank in the three months to September for the first time in 16 years, all but confirming that it is now in the grip of its first recession since the early Nineties.
Bleak official GDP figures showing that national income plunged by 0.5 per cent in the three months to the end of September, in the sharpest drop since the end of 1990, revealed that the toll from the credit crisis and housing crash has ended Britain’s longest unbroken run of quarterly growth since at least 1955.
The drop in GDP in the third quarter came after the economy stagnated, with zero growth, in the previous three months.
London's FTSE 100 index of leading shares plunged by 8.2 per cent, or 336.07 points, to 3,751.76 as investors digested the worse-than-expected figures. Sterling also fell further, to a new five-year low of $1.5616 against the dollar.
Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, told BBC News: "It’s obvious now that our economy, other economies across the world, are moving into recession.
“Yes, it’s going to be difficult, yes it’s going to be tough, but we can get through it."
Speaking before a decision by Opec, the cartel of oil producing nations, to reduce daily output by 1.5 million barrels, Mr Darling said: “The fact that oil prices have halved in recent week has been beneficial — if they go down that route it will be disappointing.”
However, while a cut to production was expected to increase the price of oil, Brent crude tumbled to a 17-month low of $61 a barrel as the GDP figures confimed that Britain is heading towards recession.
With output and income across the economy set to suffer a further, almost inevitable fall in the present quarter, Britain is almost certainly already in recession. But formal confirmation of that will not come until the release of GDP figures for the October to December period, due early next year.
Both the Prime Minister and Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, admitted for the first time earlier this week that the economy was probably entering a recession.
The detail of yesterday's figures added to the grim picture, showing every part of the economy except the farming, fishing and forestry industries, is now in decline. Over the past three months, manufacturing shrank by 1 per cent, output from utilities fell by 1 per cent, construction contracted by 0.8 per cent, and the services sector, which makes up three quarters of the economy, shrank by 0.4 per cent.
The threat of a consumer-led recession was emphasised as, within services, the retail, wholesale, hotels and restaurants sector slumped by a drastic 1.7 per cent in the third quarter.
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Let's get real and stop pontificating!
The Uk is already in recession,not "on the brink".
jackie, paphos, cyprus
Dow may settle about 4000. A 50% decrease in the dow is on the hoizon for the next 4 years.
Kevin, Redlands, United States
I suspect the Dow is going to around 4000 in 2009, and will not come out of this trading range till 2012. - A 50% decrease is on the horizon. - This is based on the bear line that started in the Regan Revolution.
kevin, Redlands, United States
I always thought " on the brink" usually meant that something could still be done to avoid it... unfortunately it doesn't look like the BofE is prepared to do anything - other than chuck more good money (after bad) at their mates in the city. Who'll do nothing with it other than cover their bonuses.
Steve, London,
Most of the OPEC economies are already overspending every year and even though they have announced a cut, many of them, e.g. Venezuela and Irnwill need to keep on pumping at full speed to keep their economies going. This is just an empty threat by them to gain some additional short term revenue.
Harmeet, Pinner, UK
Because of the preveailing focus on calendar year end, markets are pricing in in 3 months what took them 3 years in 00-03. Companies are in much better shape now than back then and similarly cheap. Doomsayers never buy and always miss the now unexpected and therefore possibly quick and big recovery!
George, London,
A stock market crash which Maitreya has said is inevitable will obviously lead to changes occupying also most politicians.
Jaap , Namen,
This day has all the hallmarks of being the Blackest Black Friday in the history of the worlds stock markets. And the US markets have not opened yet.
Peter, Vancouver.BC, Canada
Watching and listening to this governent deal with the UK economy is quite interesting. An analogy is a five year old carryng out brain surgery.
On reflection, make that a four year old carrying out brain surgery.
John Devries, Alicante, Spain
Before the collapse of any civilisation in the past, there were several indicators:
- the collapse of the family
- huge amounts spent on defence of wealth
- constant preparations for war
- kerry katona appearing stoned on national TV
iain, bedford, uk
The big problem that know one would like to talk about is when China, Japin, and Sudi arabia calls in it debts. Just the US alone all the T Bond it sends back to US, this will push the $ to all time lows. Then they will buy any goods they can from US to try and reclaim there debts!
oliver, colchester,
And does this mean that all our precious bail-out money has been blown too?
David, Cambridge, UK
We are not on the brink of recession - but bang in the middle.
It started when the Abbey went "bust" and sneaked itself off to Spain
james allen, manchester, england
The government isn't ever going to reduce fuel tax. They might if there was so much oil they couldn't give it away - not a likely situation with the OPEC announcement.
A line by John Cooper Clarke; "Too much is not enough". Governments and business; you can't expand profits endlessly, forever.
Steve, London,
The hardest hit will be the elderly. An estimated that 20000, yes twenty thousand, will die this winter because they are unable to afford heating. This is a national disgrace & perhaps more pressure could be applied to stop handing out welfare payments to all & sundry before taking care of our own.
Matt , Bournemouth, UK
People who think this is going to be mild live in their own world. We need credit from abroad to carry on as we have. It will not be forthcoming and UK has to adjust to a position where it has something to sell abroad. Our kamikasi dive has begun & will crash through the unarmoured decks of Uk PLC.
Chris Stuart, Carentan, France
So will everyone admit that they were wrong to criticise Alistair Darling for his comments a little while ago about the worst economic conditions for 60 years? "Credit crunch" may roll off the tongue easily, but fuel and food prices and a debt-fuelled growth and housing bubble are the real causes.
Mike, Woodbridge,
Darling says we are moving towards recession, it just shows that our Government is going around with its head in the sand(thats the polite version).
Manipulating figures to their advantage fools nobody.
We have been in recession for the last month or two,who are they trying to kid!
Adrian Smith, Alvechurch, UK
So the pull back is 1 or 2% in terms of output and temporary to boot. And for that the market slides 40%? What an overreaction. I would call it sheer panic. And in 2010 the sun shines agaion and Moore's law is still in effect als.
ed buscemi, new york, usa
I though short selling had been made illegal on bank shares? Clearly someone is short selling, so what happened to this revelation that G Brown had? Oh and by the way, we've been in recession for ages, just that nobody wanted to admit it.
Phil, London,
hang on, i thought gordon had bailed out the banks. so was that a complete waste of money?
sam, london, uk
At least we will not have to listen to BGordon Brown saying no more boom and bust
Derek Worsey, Hull, Yorkshire
With the value of the GBP£ falling this means that our goods and services will be less expensive for foreigners, and should also stimulate the tourist industry.
Desi, Eastleigh,
Surely the bigger question for the world is who has the not only the capacity but also is politically willing to buy up all the Global Govt debt that is out there which the bailouts are all dependent on. What happens if the Chinese can't or don't want to buy US, UK or EU Govt debt? What' s Plan B?
Rupert, London, UK
The Intelligence services of the UK and the USA have over egged the whole War on Terror. it has took us to WAR and It has drained our resources to the point where we have been pushed into recession. Inflation caused by fuel and more importantly TAX on fuel 1. and interest rates 2.
Mark Steele, gateshead, uk