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Britain is on the brink of recession and faces an extended and painful economic downturn, the Governor of the Bank of England said last night. Mervyn King admitted for the first time that “it now seems likely that the economy is entering a recession”. He told families and business to prepare for a prolonged period of hardship.
“We now face a long, slow haul to restore lending to the real economy, and hence growth of our economy, to more normal conditions,” he said.
A squeeze on take-home pay, soaring living costs and the decline in consumer credit increased the risk of “a sharp and prolonged slowdown”. He said: “Over the past month, the economic news has probably been the worst in such a short period for a very considerable time.”
Mr King said that since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the US investment bank, on September 15, markets had been hit by an “extraordinary, almost unimaginable sequence of events”. He added: “It is difficult to exaggerate the severity and importance of those events. Not since the beginning of the First World War has our banking system been so close to collapse.”
After months of financial turmoil, Mr King held out hope of an eventual return to economic calm. “The long march back to boredom and stability starts tonight in Leeds,” he told an audience of business leaders in the Yorkshire city. He also boosted hopes of more cuts in interest rates to shore up the economy, with a hint of early moves to follow last week’s emergency half-point reduction.
Inflation dangers had “shifted decisively” in the past month, he said. The threat was now that the slowdown would drive inflation sharply below target, so the Bank would “act promptly to ensure that inflation remains on track”.
With three quarters of lenders failing to pass on the Bank’s half-point cut in interest rates to borrowers, the Governor said that the bank bailout announced this month would take time to restore access to loans.
“It will take time before the recapitalisation leads to a resumption of normal levels of lending,” he said.
But he argued that the rescue of the banks through partial nationalisation, alongside plunging oil prices, should “temper the gloom”. He said: “We are far from the end of the road back to stability, but the plan to recapitalise our banking system will, I believe, come to be seen as the moment in the banking crisis when we turned the corner.” Mr King’s stark message was delivered before official figures, due on Friday, that are expected to show that the economy contracted in the third quarter for the first time since the early 1990s.
A key survey yesterday showed that manufacturers’ confidence has plunged over the past quarter to its lowest in 28 years. Firms now expect the amount of goods they produce to fall to levels last seen in 1980, and have reported plans to slash jobs and investment.
Up to 65,000 manufacturing jobs could be lost by the end of the year, the CBI predicted, as its findings showed industry orders at five-year lows. Separately, HM Revenue & Customs reported that the number of homes sold fell to 59,000 in September from 126,000 a year ago.
The downturn in Britain is likely to be more severe than in other major economies, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. In a report published today the think-tank forecasts that the economy will shrink by 0.9 per cent next year, with future cuts in interest rates failing to make a difference.
Consumer spending will slump by 3.4 per cent – the equivalent of about £450 a year for every Briton – while investment by businesses will tumble.
This means that there is an even chance that the economy will shrink for at least four consecutive quarters, it says.
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That he makes comparison with the Jarrow March is frightening. A warning that the mass unemployment and poverty experienced during the recession of the 30s is likely. There was a simultaneous domestic and international slowdown also at that time.
Michael, West Midlands,
This is Britain 2008 - easy to lash out at the government, regulators, anyone else who pops their head above the parapet. They're at fault because they didn't stop you being greedy buying that extra handbag, holiday, car, the house you couldn't really afford [but property is a one way bet isn't it?]
Peter, London, UK
It is not easy to see how a falling pound and falling interest rates will encourage anyone to lend enough to cover the governments enormous cash requirements.
We need a lot of "foreign" money to keep going don't we?
john, woodbridge,
i think we probably need a recession at this point. our ecconomy has run on debt, and is fundamentally weak in fields like export- which is probably the most important. the credit bubble has hidden our decline in productivity and a recession will allow us to get real about our ecconomy
will, grimsby, uk
"The threat was now that the slowdown would drive inflation sharply below target, so the Bank would ..."
There is more chance of aliens landing in Regent's Park.
John, London, UK
It is truly remarkable that King utters words of defeat and the country see its £ fall and its shares drop! We are being led by a view of the end of the world when we should be embracing the changes and the challenges. This is a human made up world where optimism must rule and leaders must lead
Jason Horn, Berkhamsted, UK
Great, the captain of the Titanic is now telling us how he hit the iceberg. They are all overpaid and useless.
Dave Bridge, Southport, UK
Labour is at fault as is the EU, as of this week my dad HGV driver will be able to work 1/4 less hours a week and by feb it will be down 50%!
Thanks the labour and the EU working time, Thanks to them his income will drop by 50%! What is the goverment up to? Cheaper EU labour with tanks of EU Fuel
MR w jones, Liverpool, England
I no longer have any faith to the people who run the economy in the UK and US. They want to deflate the debt bubble by reducing interest rate !!!! this wil lead to more borrowing and worsen the debt bubble.It is like injecting a cancer patient with more cancerous cells! Rates should be left alone
NICHOLAS Bsc Economics, LARNACA, CYPRUS
Why on earth would Mr King want to return to 'normal levels of lending'. isn't that exactly what created this mess? - and what is normal nowdays? interestingly I was offered a balance transfer facility (thankfully not needed) the rate, not 0% anymore but an immediate 17.9%, but no handling fee lol!
pd, bristol,
Mr King is a political puppet, as is the FSA. I think more people will lose the will to live thanks to inept regulation and a blind government.
Evan Owen, Harlech, Wales
"Unimaginable". We truly are lions led by donkeys. I didn't find it very hard to imagine in 2005 that house prices in 2010 would be no higher than in 2005. Mervyn had a chance in 2004/5 to stop pumping up the asset bubble but kept his foot off the brake because Blair had to win another election.
Alan Gooch, Honiton, UK
And why have we got such low income's? Thanks to the goverments policy of supplying cheap labour from abroad,and anyone who thinks the conservatives will do any better needs to ask themselves...will the tories get us out of the EU...I think you know the answer
David , Torquay, England
A point strikes me as pertinent!
The survey of business confidence carried out 28 years ago expressed views from those who had likely witnessed the 70's whereas todays views are set against the experiences of the relative prosperity of the last few years where a cold is judged pneumonia.
Chris, Blackburn, UK
Thank goodness we have the 'expert 'in Downing Street to help us - after all, he dug the hole that got us into this mess. Oh, silly me: he's continuing to borrow billions more so still digging but with a bigger spade.
Still, look on it as a huge grave: for Gordon and the rest of the Labour Govt.
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
Why don't people understand, interest rates are there to give an indication of the cost of money. The problem we have is the availability of money, cost and availability are different.
When you go into a shop, it don't matter what the price is, if the shelf is empty, you can't have any.
Ken, Derby, England
No doubt Mr King will claim that he and his colleagues at the BoE couldn't see this coming whilst they encouraged the debt bubble to inflate. Their solution? Lower interest rates again to reflate that bubble by encouraging even more borrowing.
Paul, Coventry,
When do we get a police investigation into the financial sector of the economy?
Dave, Chorley,
is anyone investigating the blatant mis-selling of tracker mortgages???? why isn't the Mortgage ombudsman investigating this??? the big selling point of tracker mortgages is that they "track" the base rate...nobody explained this is only when it rises though...
stephen, china, china
Is the Bank of England abandoning sound money and giveing into the easy charms of low interest rates? Are they too opting for high inflation to solve the sub-prime crisis. What about pensioners and the like who depend on the sound value of money to preserve their nest egg? God help us all!
S Yogarajah, Harrow, UK
Who does the struggling - the ordinary people not the financiers who caused this mess.
Mike, Newport, Wales
...and the Pope is a Catholic claims King!
John Merrell, London,
Why can we not have a sharp cut in interest rates now. Down to 3%.What would go wrong in the short term? It may jump start the banks. Once the banks start lending, then maybe put them up to keep inflation in check.
Jyotindra, Northaw, UK
Mr King what you need is ten restaurant owners to advise you when we are heading for the recession. When the economy is slowing down, restaurants are on front line. Reduce interest rates down to 3% now.
Jyotindra, Northaw, UK
We'd have turned the corner much earlier if not for Mr King's and the Government's incompetence.
David, London,
The Bank Of England is the bank of the World. London is the economic centre... as our Queen says... 'I Promise To Pay The Bearer'. The BOE should not forget this... for the sake of our 'Commonwealth'. It is the BOE that is the handout for the Monopoly money... end of.
Mark, London, UK
Thank goodness we had an expert to point out the struggle ahead.
I might have missed that.
Gordon, Glasgow, UK