You need Flash Player 8 or higher to view video content with the ROO Flash Player.
Click here to download and install it.
Enter our Snapshots of Summer photography competition
House prices could fall by a further 5 to 10 per cent before the market bottoms out, a leading economist told an influential committee of MPs today.
David Miles, Visiting Professor of Finance at Imperial College Business School in London, said that the property market should stabilise once house prices lost 20 per cent of their value from the peak of the market last summer, which would translate as a further decline between 5-10 per cent.
Appearing before the Treasury Select Committee, Professor Miles, who has advised Gordon Brown, as Chancellor, on the mortgage market, said that once this happened, the number of transactions could pick up again “quite sharply”.
He added that if mortgage rates fell by another half a point, then any further falls could be minimal.
This came as Bob Pannell, of the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), who was also appearing before the Committeegave warning that repossessions could rise further next year as unemployment levels rose.
He said that repossessions were set to rise by 50 per cent to 45,000 this year.
But he said that the current expectations of further house price falls among home buyers, coupled with the lack of mortgage finance, made it difficult to asses when prices might hit rock bottom.
“There is a stand-off in many parts of the country between people who have got a house to sell and people who have got mortgage credit, and they cannot agree on a price," he said.
Professor Miles's assessment of the market is more optomistic than other experts.
Estate agent Knight Frank said yesterday that it expected house prices to fall to the same levels as 2003, leaving more than two million people in negative equity.
It said the average house prices would fall a further £45,000 to £140,687. The average house price peaked at nearly £200,000 in August last year.
The lack of mortgage finance in the market was highlighted today as the Council of Mortgage Lenders said that the number of loans advanced to first-time buyers fell by 55 per cent in August compared to the same period last year.
Articles from our sister site WSJ.com:
You may be asked to subscribe to read certain articles
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£24,250 - £30,346
MI5
London
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
The falling BP pound has lowered house prices by 25 %. Actual house prices have fallen 15%, and the demand for housing has declined, along with a limited amount of funds available to home buyers. It is a good guess that house prices will continue falling and probably more than the 5-10% prediction.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia
There is an inflation coming soon. This means more drop in house prices but slightly slow. things may change abit and prices pick up again next year Fabruary.
then come down again end 2009,but the real effect of inflation will start in 2010. infaltion means if now buy for£100 it will be £120Later
harry porter, liverpool, mersyside
Hmm, leading ? A guess. My guess is if house prices stay high, then the pound will fall to reflect the true value, so in global terms UK will be poorer. Gordon's spending to keep up the illusion, will ensure the UK moves down the world's rich list.
john, london,
Most potential buyers are hard pressed to save anything at the moment let alone a 15% deposit etc.
That assumes they would be daft enough to buy at still exhorbitant prices, while unemployment and inflation are rising and a mega tax bill for the bailout is on its way.
10% seems optimistic.
Mark, Oldham, UK
I have believed for years that prices will fall 50% from peak back to 3.5 times salary. The way the market is crashing I can't see anything else happenening apart from a bigger fall in an over correction.
A 10% further fall just sounds like what they kept saying in the US and they were wrong.
Gavin, London,
Another guru who simply lives in a different world and thus fails to see the reality of it all. With a huge thinning out of the workforce only just begining, combined with massive economic turbulence world wide, surely house prices will crumble significantly during the next year?
Peter Ellis, Calpe, Spain
Andrew, London.
Your 'daily data' from your (ahem) "London retail property company" shows - if I understand correctly - continued price falls.
From this you have inferred that prices are "near the bottom of the bell curve."
I'd be more inclined to believe the data than your inference.
Scott, Mexico D.F., Mexico
Lets get some perspective on this the UK has a massive sub prime mortgage problem that as only 6 to 8 months away! Housing will have to correct back to 4 x income so we will be looking at a %50 drop from summer 07 prices. Too much mortgage fraud for it not to happen look at the state our banks!!
john, poole,
This is 3 months out of date. It is based on the selling price of houses sold 3 months ago, REAL house prices have already dropped 20% and are near the bottom of the bell curve. I know this because I have daily data from my own London retail property company.
Andrew, London,
They wish ! Unless income's rise considerably (and theyn won't!) prices will continue to fall untill they reach an affordable level. Prices have another 20% to fall plus the original 13% which in many areas have not yet shown in reduced asking prices!
mel, worcester, uk
In the US this was the situation 6 months ago - experts ???? saying that prices would stabilize soon..
It ain't happened and won't in the UK till prices reach a sensible income based cost relationship.
40% reduction by mid 2009.
Paul, London,
140K sounds about right, £25k x 1.5 incomes x 3.5 borrowed, plus 10% deposit = £144k apporximatly, that is assuming that employment levels remain fairly constant.
Ben, folkestone, uk
"Leading economists warn MPs the housing market is likely to plunge by a total 20% before making a recovery"
Why is that a "warning"? The only "warning" there is that massive re inflation is getting construed by idiots as a "recovery".
An average price of 140K is about right.
Joe, Manchester,
Why is this bad news.I thought policy makers had been trying to reduce house prices for years and this is still only back to 2006 prices
Colin Grant, Montreal, Canada
stabilise x3
Louise, London,