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STERLING will continue to slide against the dollar as long as financial turbulence persists, analysts say, as international investors dump the pound and euro.
The pound fell to a five-year low against the dollar last week, briefly dropping below $1.70 before closing the week at $1.71. The Bank of England, in common with other central banks, cut interest rates by half a point last week, reducing Bank rate to 4.5%.
However UK interest rates are seen by currency dealers as having further to fall than those of other countries, with several economists predicting a drop to as low as 2.5% next year. Analysts surveyed by Ideaglobal, a financial-research firm, expect a drop from the current 4.5% to 4% by the end of the year.
Economists at Barclays Capital say sterling could remain under pressure as long as the financial panic persists, but predict that it will climb back to $1.88 against the dollar in the coming months. However, other experts believe sterling will continue to fall.
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Two weeks later with the pound touching $1.53, may I draw attention to my previous comment. The only mistake is one of timing in this fast moving situation.
Steve Buckel, Braunau-am-Inn, Austria
I miss the 1:2 buying power :(
Alex R, Stoke-on-Trent, UK
We can only guess but in respect of Barclays Capital's guess, I would not row across the Serpentine, let alone the Atlantic, on the back of this! My punt is $1.50 by March 2009 and $1.30 by the end of next year. There is too much to unwind still. Of course, like anyone else, I may be wrong!
Steve Buckel, Braunau-am-Inn, Austria
Errr, I may be wrong about this, but does not the UK do more business with Europe than with the USA? Apart from dollar traded oil? But that is a big rip-off for us anyway...
Rod McLeod, Ostrava, Czech Republic
When everybody is bearish then there is onone way the price will go. Likewise when they are bullish.
Remember all that talk that oil was heading to $200 when it was at $140?
Lower rates will certainly hurt sterling in the short term but watch the bounce when the UK is first to recover a la '96
Alexis Pavlou, Bath, UK
I am a saver. But what andrea ceccanti from london said.
In addition, I feel that once we are through Q1 - 2 we will see recovery in the UK , ulike the US; it is the dollar thats in trouble.
Finally, it will be intersting to see how the Euro stands during the coarse of the next six months :
liam, bedford, UK
Cutting interest rates will do absolutely nothing to stem this tide of idiotic monetary policies.
The low interest model does not work and it is pointless to continue persisting with it.
Unless Britain wants to be equated with the Lira, devaluing to remain competitive, then drop the rates down.
Finn, Aberdeen,
All currencies will eventually fall against gold which is true money. Increase the supply of any item and the value will drop. The central bank printing presses are going full steam in the Western World just wait for the massive inflationary fall out. You can thank Brown and Greenspan.
Scott, Bangkok, Thailand
There is not a single reason for the Pound not to fall
Lec Neli, London, UK
This article is correct just from the headline. On the longer term timeframes, you're looking at a massive downswing.
John, London,
The avalanche of prophets of doom which I have seen in all the papers lately do little to encourage confidence in our banking system and currency.
Richard, Alicante, Spain
According to some boffins, this isn't just a bit of a slide; this is the beginning of a run on sterling. To be sure, the dollar, euro, or yen look like safer havens than the pound - which has been in decline since the war.
Nullius, London, UK
V. cooper, savings may be encouraged by a tax cut rather than an increase of the base rate. If banks want to push savings thay are free to increase their interest rate independently from the base rate.
The vast majority of world population has more debts that savings and only a rate cut can help.
andrea ceccanti, london,
there you go
alex, woking, uk
Discourage savers and encourage borrowers - No change
V. Cooper, Somerset, UK