Confused by the incomprehensibly big numbers and the baffling jargon of the
City? Distrustful of any words emanating from ministers, financial
regulators and bankers?
You are not alone. “Nobody knows anything,” the screenwriter William Goldman
said of Hollywood. The same could apply to the entire banking and finance
industry, which by the day looks more like a gigantic ten-year-long con
trick perpetrated by the few on the many.
One of the problems of the credit crunch is that nobody believes the numbers
any more. But numbers are all we have to try to understand where the world
went wrong and make sense of when we might start to turn the corner.
Sometimes they prove hopelessly wrong in signalling the future, but most
market prices are determined by the behaviour of thousands of traders and
their collective views about the future. Markets don’t always get it right,
but they are the least bad crystal balls we have.
Here are ten constantly changing barometers available at the click of a mouse
that can provide clues to armchair crunchologists:
1. The gold price
(The World Gold
Council)
Along with stockpiling of baked beans, the rush to buy gold is a classic
response when people fear economic and political calamity. Gold has been a
terrible investment over the decades and a lousy store of value; the main
reason people buy it is as an insurance policy in the event of banknotes
being of no value except to light fires.
They need something with which to bribe gun-toting anarchists when civilised
life as we know it ends and to pay farmers for the last rotten turnip in the
field. A rising gold price is a classic measure of consumer fear.
Which direction is good?
Down
What happened yesterday?
It fell $22 to $893 an ounce
2. 3-month sterling Libor
(British
Bankers' Association - one week's delay)
This is the average interest rate at which banks are prepared to give each
other three-month loans. It depends on official interest rates and on
bankers’ confidence in each other’s ability to pay the money back. Its level
helps to determine all kinds of other borrowing costs – from car loans to
credit cards to mortgages.
The information is available on the British Bankers Association website
(bba.org.uk) but on a week’s delay because the BBA sells the up-to-date
information.
Which direction is good?
Down, the faster the better.
What happened yesterday?
It rose fractionally, by 0.01 per cent to 6.28 per cent.
3. The Savills share price
(London
Stock Exchange)
The shares of one of Britain’s biggest estate agency groups can be seen as a
proxy for the level of confidence about the volume of housing transactions
in future. It may grate, but when estate agents start smiling again, it’s a
sign that one key chunk of the economy paralysed by the crunch is coming
back to life.
Which direction is good?
Up
What happened yesterday?
Up 0.75p to 240.75p
4. Brent crude future
(Bloomberg
commodity futures)
This is the price per barrel of crude oil for delivery in the future, the
current delivery month being November, and gives an indication of the future
cost of many kinds of energy, from petrol to diesel to heating oil and of
plastic, a key component in many products.
Which direction is good?
Some argue that too steep a fall would indicate a massive global depression,
but on balance, down is good
What happened yesterday?
It went up by 30 cents to $84.66 a barrel
5. The sterling index
(Bank
of England)
This is the measure of the pound’s buying power in a sprinkling of our biggest
trading partners. The currency is the ultimate virility symbol of any
economy.
A strong currency reflects a strong economy run by a creditworthy government.
It roughly reflects how we are doing economically compared with other
countries. Exporters love a weakening currency because it makes it easier to
win sales, but the fact is it makes us poorer and makes our pounds go less
far abroad, and it sucks in inflation.
Which direction is good?
Up
What happened yesterday?
It fell 1.42 per cent to 90
6. The WPP share price
(London
Stock Exchange)
In a downturn, advertising is one of the first costs to be slashed by
companies desperate for savings, but it is also one of the biggest
beneficiaries when an upturn is finally expected. In City argot, it is
pro-cyclical. Investors will start aggressively buying shares in WPP, which
has advertising agencies worldwide, the moment they believe the global
outlook is improving.
Which direction is good?
Up
What happened yesterday?
Up 2p to 394¼p
7. The volatility index
(Yahoo! Finance)
Known by City traders as “the Vix” or the “fear index”, it measures the
violence of the swings in expectations about future share prices. The bigger
the number, the greater the more volcanic mood change from fear to greed and
back to fear again. It hit an all-time high this week. Some hedge funds
thrive on the uncertainty and love a high number; those of us hoping for a
quieter, more stable life want it much smaller. Available on the Yahoo!
Finance website: google “Yahoo” and “Vix”.
Which direction is good?
Down
What happened yesterday?
Down 2.59 to 54.94
8. The Hays share price
(London
Stock Exchange)
Official unemployment figures are out of date and backward-looking. They say
nothing much about the future. Hays is a huge recruitment consultancy,
seeking temps and permanent employees for employers in all kinds of
industries across Britain and other parts of the world. Its share price can
be seen as a very rough proxy for the outlook for job vacancies.
Which direction is good?
Up
What happened yesterday?
Down 2½p to 71½p
9. The wheat price
(The Chicago Board of Trade)
The price of the West’s ultimate staple has started to come down again, but
along with other primary product prices, it partly explains the soaring cost
of the weekly supermarket shop.
Most wholesale commodity prices, from sugar to coffee to rapeseed oil, are
available on the website of the commodity exchange (www.liffe-commodities.com).
Or look in the daily Markets pages of The Times.
Which direction is good?
Down
What happened yesterday?
Wheat for delivery in November fell by 35p to £93.50 a tonne
10. The Footsie
(Yahoo!
Finance)
The FTSE 100 index reflects the value of the hundred biggest companies listed
on the London stock market.
Because share dealers are always peering far into the future in the hope of
gauging future profits, the Footsie gives a good indication of hopes for
future company profits, which themselves reflect expected future economic
vitality in the United Kingdom and the wider world.
Which direction is good?
Up
What happened yesterday?
It was down 53 points at 4,314
