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Hopes of a cut in interest rates before Christmas were boosted yesterday as a key member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee said that the toll from recent financial turmoil had intensified the dangers facing the economy.
Kate Barker told business leaders in the North West that the credit crunch is proving more serious than initially expected and the escalating financial upheavals of recent days has worsened the economic outlook.
“The latest developments in financial markets have now increased the downside risks,” she said. “There are real dangers that the impact of these would be a downturn in the economy which is unnecessarily large and would therefore result in a large undershoot of the inflation target.”
With Ms Barker also acknowledging the continuing blight of high and rising inflation, and noting that this is being fuelled by sharp falls in the value of the pound, her remarks did little to alter the City's belief that the Bank will keep interest rates on hold next month despite market upheavals.
Yet her recognition of the heightened threat to prospects combined with further doveish comments made recently by other MPC members fuel optimism that rates will be cut before the end of the year.
David Blanchflower, another external MPC member and the committee's arch-dove, this week stepped up his demands for swift action by the Bank to stave off a severe downturn, renewing his plea for steep rate cuts.
Sir John Gieve, the Bank's Deputy Governor, also suggested that he too is becoming increasingly anxious of the deteriorating growth outlook and indicated that he foresees a sharp retreat by inflation into next year.
As Ms Barker also lined up in an emerging, more doveish camp among the MPC, economists said that the chances of a rate cut in November or December, if not next month, were increasing. “The Monetary Policy Committee will clearly be looking hard at the impact of recent events in our October meeting and as we update our forecasts in November,” she said.
However, she tempered that, adding that it was “ too soon to be clear about the full consequences” of the financial turbulence for the economy.
However, the harder-line members of the rate-setting committee have yet to be convinced of the case for early action, with inflation expected to climb still higher before reaching a forecast peak of about 5 per cent during the autumn.
This week, Andrew Sentance, who along with Tim Besley is the most hawkish MPC member, suggested that he remains in little hurry to back a cut in rates.
Dr Sentance argued that it was important that the Bank did not overreact to volatile markets. He added that, while a recession was now a “real risk” in Britain, if one did emerge it was likely to be much more mild than the severe slumps endured in the early Eighties and early Nineties.
While Professor Besley has now abandoned his long-standing demands for an immediate rates increase, voting for no change at the MPC's meeting earlier this month, he too is seen as being unlikely to swing behind a move to cut rates soon.
Many City economists believe that a cut in base rates is now most likely to emerge in November, unless the financial convulsions grow still worse in the next few weeks.
Howard Archer, of Global Insight, said: “We are becoming more confident that the Bank will cut rates to 4.75 per cent in November. We would not rule out a move as soon as October if the current turmoil persists and appears to be significantly hitting the economy. However, we suspect the majority of MPC members will be reluctant to cut as soon as October.”
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The 'keep interest rates high' mob hasn't noticed that the pound has already tanked despite the higest rates in the West. Care to explain that? The fact is that without an economy interest rates are irrelevant. No cash, no work, no jobs - see what your pound buys. Cut rates now. Later is too late.
richard, horley, UK
It's time the BofE did its job and raised rates, its duty is clear and the response is over due.
Crowther, Silsden, UK
Kate Barker has said nothing that has not been evident to any person with a modest degree of intelligence,for some considerable time.
I am absolutely sure that people like M/s Barker know no more about what is going on in the real world than Mr and Mrs Smith!
jackie, paphos, cyprus
There is a misconception about the effect higher interest rate would have. Many of the comments say that interest rates should be left high to encourage savers BUT higher rates leave less disposable income from the majority of people with mortgages therefore less saving. Rock and a hard place!
Ian M Jones, Reading, UK
I don't think they should lower interest rates, they should keep them at a level which makes the money worth somthing not nothing.
Everyones forgetting, it was lowering the rate in the first place which made borrowing so easy.
Money must be earnt and saved to make it worth value!!
Russ, ILminster, Somerset
If the BoE weaken on inflation they will trigger a sterling crisis that could lead to emergency rate hikes to support the £. A devalued £ will exacerbate inflation & lead to social unrest.
The UK must take the pain & grow the economy from a more sustainable base with real wealth creating jobs.
Steve Marchant, Newton Abbot, UK
Interest rates should not be cut in the interests of the pound against other major currencies.
What is needed is a major reduction in credit card lending generally,but with interest fixed @ 1- 2% over prime - credit card debt is a major problem which needs resolving.
Christopher Robinson, Bangkok, Thailand
Who cares what the MPC do with interest rates?
LIBOR decoupled when the markets concluded the MPC had abdicated responsibility to control inflation.
If the MPC want to confirm their irrelevance then a base rate cut accompanied by the inevitable Mortgage rate rises would underline the reality.
Pat, Coromandel, NZ
What is the point? The 'Bank rate' is directly linked to no other interest rate and if credit is scarce, rates will rise. Surely we must live within our means, reduce debt overall, and get back to a sound currency? A slowdown is inevitable now. Nothing will cushion the landing.
Richard , Chesterfield, UK
It was the ease of attaining money that was the problem. This was all started by those in trusted positions. The government in this country (UK) did not help with 'right to buy' adverts portraying a lower social, lower earning group with council properties and a 'you can have it all' viewpoint.
Harold Cutts, Boston, United Kingdom
Can't Central Bankers see that they have become irrelevant? By leaving interest rates too low for too long there are too many borrowers and not enough savers, which is why there is a credit crunch. Only by RAISING rates will savers be rewarded. Failure to do so simply risks inflation/devaluation.
Peter, London,
We are staring debt deflation in the face. In similar circumstances 20 years ago the Bank of Japan faced the same problem and started cutting rates far too late. And of course with debt deflation comes varying degrees of economic depression.
Tony, Chester,
If the BoE show any weakness in the fight against inflation the pound will weaken and trigger a sterling crisis. You can now get 6% interest in European banks with a higher deposit guarantee. Many depositors will move money there if sterling slides and exacerbate the problem.
Stephen Marchant, Newton Abbot, Devon
the pound is going to hell in a handcart. Savers should fix for a year or longer at rates of 7% to protect themselves.
j dickinson, middlesborough,
We fought WWII with a Bank Rate of 2%. From 1940 to 1945 inflation averaged only 1.8%. Kate Barker knows this. Look up 'Gibson's Paradox' in Wikipedia and see why Keynes kept rates low.
Geoff Gardiner, Swindon, UK
Who cant see how the deep the recession already is. House prices falling, people in airlines, travel, mortgage/estate agents, conveyancing, banks, builders already out of work , many people unable to sell houses to cut outgoings, businesses reporting 25-30% lower sales, just look at the quite roads!
Chris Sullivan, Macclesfield, UK
Ms Barker, the so-called property guru on the MPC has not learnt from the last boom/bust or indeed from the more recent out-of-control boom as she's considering voting for a rate CUT, despite soaring inflation, much of which is due to a sinking pound which is sure to sink further with another cut.
cww, Ipswich,
One big cause of the credit crunch has been central banks (with the Greenspan Put) cutting rates so fuelling the leveraged debt furnace. We need free market interest rates - and the market is currently saying that the price of money (and the price of risk) needs to rise as overpriced assets fall.
Huw Sayer, London, England
Interest rate cut to stimulate the retail market just in time for Xmas. Will the banks pass it on?
steve tea, manchester, cheshire
I think the MPC should focus on getting inflation back under control and within sight of the 2% target before they think about any interest rate cuts.
To consider interest rate cuts at the moment is risky to say the least.
It is this kind of distorted reasoning that got us here in the first plac
Jim, Belfast, NI
Simon, London: 'policy makers and professionals' are not fools.
They act not in the public's interest but for the wealthy elites whom they answer to.
The rational conclusion is the UK economy is being sent into an engineered recession, which will benefit the elites at the expense of the rest society
Frederick Hambro, London, UK
What a relief to see at last a seies of sensible comment about suggestions that we should reduce interest rates.This will do nothing to reduce the CPI or avoid a recession or strengthen the pound or benefit savers.People who have benefited from the last ten years must now live with the tough times
Michael, Lindfield,
Interest rates are going to rise not go down. Why? Banks are basically running out of money at an alarming rate and goverment debt is out of control. This requires cash for which there is a global market. In order to get the cash investors will want a good return = high interest rates worldwide
Rupert, London, UK
Cheap money poorly lent is what got us into this forseeable state.
brian mccaughey, bury, lancs
Our addiction to cheap money and easy lending has turned us into credit junkies over the last 9 years. If we ever want to become sober again, how will it help to return to 24/7 happy hours banking with 125% mortgages for the price of 75% house values? No wonder there is so much turmoil in the City.
Alan Gooch, Honiton, UK
Can anybody tell me when we have had a 'large undershoot' in inflation? What are the real prospects of this happening?
Alex, Salisbury, United Kingdom
What different will it make anyway, its not like banks are going to cut mortgage rates in a hurry.
If a recession did occur?!?!? It has already started and will be a lot worse than previous decades. Banks are pretty much insolvent. as well. A recession is needed in my opinion.
Adrian, Kirkwall, Orkney
How is it that ordinary people see the folly of the low interest rate fiasco, yet the policy makers and professionals do not appear to have caught on yet? How can lowering rates do anything but postpone and worsen an already dire situation. Recessions happen, accept it, take the medicine and move on
Simon, London, UK
I assume they do realise what the effect a weak pound has on imports, pushing up the prices of nearly everything that we bring in. Remember, we hardly produce much now days for exports. Lower interest rate/s will have a big effect on the pound as well.
Arvin, Lon, GB
Why does David Blanchflower get paid for his opinion, and paid to fly in a plane across the Atlantic for each MPC meeting? You could achieve the same effect by installing a permanent sign on a wooden stick behind DB's seat at the MPC table declaring "CUT BY 0.25%"
John Mack, Aberdeen, UK
Erm, wasn't it low interest rates that caused the current problem? The US bailout will generate enough inflation for everyone to share, we really don't need to add to it by cutting interest rates over here.
ToWS, Hertford,
Good thinking! The best answer to the problems created by low interest rates and underpriced risk is more low interest rates and more underpriced risk. They are very clever in that MPC.
Alain, Paris, france